S&p Global Inc. · NYSE:SPGI
S&p Global — Korea Mobility Workshop 2023
25 slides from S&p Global's conference presentation, Jun 20, 2023
Slide 1: Global vehicle electrification outlook
Global vehicle electrification outlook Sangmin Lee South Korea Powertrain forecast Principal Research Analyst ICE-exit and OEM transitioning strategies June 20th, 2023
Slide 2: How is decarbonization impacting the automotive industry?
How is decarbonization impacting the automotive industry?
Slide 3: Transport sector is the world's largest fossil fuel end user in 2021
Transport sector is the world’s largest fossil fuel end user in 2021 Transport sector accounts for nearly one fourth of 70~80% transport CO2 emissions are from road the global CO2 emissions transport Global CO₂ emissions by sector (2021) Transport CO₂ emissions by sub sector (2020) Power oil 1% Powe
Slide 4: Global movements toward net-zero goals
Global movements toward net-zero goals Regional, sectoral, and corporate commitments U.S. used to pledge 26~28% Mainland China pledges 20% carbon EU and U.S. net-zero carbon reduction from 2005 reduction from peak by 2035; commitments; levels; EU bans internal combustion engine Mainland China pledge
Slide 5: Regulatory standards have driven road transport decarbonization
Regulatory standards have driven road transport decarbonization EU has become the first major market requiring 100% new cars and vans for zero tailpipe CO2 by 2035 Global CO₂ equivalent standard milestones Cycle-specific CO2 equivalent target (g/km) 160 EU Mainland China 140 US 120 Japan South Korea
Slide 6: Automakers race to decarbonize
Automakers race to decarbonize Electrification and net-zero Automakers committed to carbon 2050 neutrality/net-zero or near-zero: Hyundai (2045), Kia (2045), Ford, Volkswagen Honda, Toyota, Nissan, • Mercedes-Benz: carbon neutrality by 2039 Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru • Honda: 40% ZEVs in major market
Slide 7: How can the automotive industry achieve the CO2 target?
How can the automotive industry achieve the CO2 target?
Slide 8: The overall CO2 compliance measure
The overall CO2 compliance measure CO2 outcome depends on the collaboration of OEM portfolio and consumer preference OEM A OEM B OEM C Under-compliance scenario Leveled-compliance scenario Over-compliance scenario Vehicle sales performance in 2023 Vehicle sales performance in 2023 Vehicle sales perf
Slide 9: Different types of electrified vehicles
Different types of electrified vehicles OEMs can choose different types of technology to decrease the CO2 average Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FHEV) (PHEV) (BEV) (FCEV) Copyright© 2023 by S&P Global Inc. All rights
Slide 10: Will Plug-in Hybrids keep playing a major role?
Will Plug-in Hybrids keep playing a major role? As transition technology to bridge the EV era, PHEV will peak in 2025 before ramping down. Battery Capacities must step up to remain competitive and comply with later regulation. Aggregated PHEV Volumes accross the decade : predominance in PHEVs Batter
Slide 11: Foreseeable technology portfolio available for light vehicles
Foreseeable technology portfolio available for light vehicles The different pathways toward carbon-free/carbon-neutral mobility Production Transport and distribution Applications e- e- BEV Renewable electricity Liquid H2 trucks Compressed H2 tube trailers H2 pipeline Renewable LH2 H2 electricity or
Slide 12: xEV production rates vary by global vehicle region
xEV production rates vary by global vehicle region, US trails behind EU, GC, J/K Consumer preferences, government regulations, incentives & product availability among contributing factors Global Vehicle Production Region by xEV share BEV FCEV PHEV FHEV MHEV ICE & ICE: S/S 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40
Slide 13: EU, US, and mainland China compliance outlook
EU, US, and mainland China compliance outlook Markets meet compliance targets, but car manufacturer performance varies EU passenger vehicle CY 2030 US car manufacturer MY 2026 Mainland China CY 2025 CAFC CO₂ compliance GHG compliance compliance 100 Market average target: ~57 g/km 260 8.0 MY 2026 lig
Slide 14: Global xEV outlook
Global xEV outlook Electrification is becoming more focused towards BEVs Global xEV production outlook 120 Millions BEV FCV PHEV FHV MHEV ICE 100 80 Production Volume 60 40 20 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Data compiled Feb. 2023. Source: S&P Global Mobility. © 2
Slide 15: Anything else affecting the electrification?
Anything else affecting the electrification?
Slide 16: Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market
Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market Vehicle homologation ZEV quota Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) • Emission regulation • Sales quota of • Holistic approach of counting • Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) • BEV + FCEV CO2 for each vehicle • Particle number (PN) • Tank-to-Wheel m
Slide 17: Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market
Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market Vehicle homologation ZEV quota Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) • Emission regulation • Sales quota of • Holistic approach of counting • Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) • BEV + FCEV CO2 for each vehicle • Particle number (PN) • Tank-to-Wheel m
Slide 18: Mild Hybrid architectures scaling-up to become the new normal
Mild Hybrid architectures scaling-up to become the new normal MHEV essentially driven by P0 systems, becoming standard on EU7 compliant programs Specific architectures on VW MLB3evo (P0+P3a) and on STLA CMP & CMF-B for eAWD 48V European MHEV production - Powertrain architecture mix P3a P0 P0+P3a P0+
Slide 19: Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market
Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market Vehicle homologation ZEV quota Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) • Emission regulation • Sales quota of • Holistic approach of counting • Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) • BEV + FCEV CO2 for each vehicle • Particle number (PN) • Tank-to-Wheel m
Slide 20: Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market
Additional factors that are becoming more significant to the xEV market Vehicle homologation ZEV quota Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) • Emission regulation • Sales quota of • Holistic approach of counting • Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) • BEV + FCEV CO2 for each vehicle • Particle number (PN) • Tank-to-Wheel m
Slide 21: Tailpipe Emissions (current) | Tank-to-Wheel method
Tailpipe Emissions (current) │ Tank-to-Wheel method TANK WHEEL CO2 Label ICE Gas Station 120 g/km *assumed BEV Charging Station 0 g/km Tank-To-Wheel Source: S&P Global Copyright© 2023 by S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. Korea Mobility Workshop 21
Slide 22: Total Emissions (upcoming) | From Tank-to-Wheel to Well-to-Wheel method
Total Emissions (upcoming) │ From Tank-to-Wheel to Well-to-Wheel method WELL TANK WHEEL Oil Refinery Gas Station Fuel Extraction Power Charging Generation Station Well-To-Tank Tank-To-Wheel Well-To-Wheel Source: S&P Global Copyright© 2023 by S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. Korea Mobility Worksh
Slide 23: Carbon Footprint | Energy transitions and responsible supply chain are key
Carbon Footprint │ Energy transitions and responsible supply chain are key in the electrification era Life cycle CO₂ emissions: ICE vs. BEV (g/km, 2020) Vehicle production Well-to-tank (fuel and electricity) Tank-to-wheel (tailpipe) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 EU Brazil Brazil Brazil Mainland US EU Pol
Slide 24: Global powertrain production outlook
Global powertrain production outlook A new automotive era More than half of the Global Light Vehicle Production to be Zero-Emission beyond 2032 Zero-Emission ICE Based PWT* Grand Total 120 Millions Light Vehicle Units - Worldwide 100 80 62M by 2035 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Slide 25: Customer Care
Customer Care Automotive LinkedIn Group Automotive WeChat Email AsiaPacificAutomotive@ihsmarkit.com Telephone Americas +1 800 447 2273 Europe, MEA +44(0) 134 432 8300 Asia Pacific +604 291 3600 Japan +81 3 6262 1887 Mobility Site Japanese: SPGlobal.com/Japan_Automotive Chinese: SPGlobal.com/China_Au