Slide 1: CDM Forecasting Initiative
CDM Forecasting Initiative March 22, 2011 Stan But Manager, Economics & Load Forecasting 1
Slide 2: Key messages from February 10, 2011 stakeholder session
Key messages from February10, 2011 stakeholder session • As recommended by stakeholders, a 3rd party study on CDM impacts is not required • Hydro One will review what CDM categories other utilities in North America are using in their load forecasting process • Hydro One will work with the OPA to bet
Slide 3: Action plans
Action plans 1. Determine the appropriate CDM categories for use in load forecasting by Hydro One 2. Prepare detailed bottom-up CDM forecast using available information consistent with the new OPA IPSP to be filed in 2011 3. Prepare detailed evidence of CDM impacts on rate classes in future rate app
Slide 4: Action Plan #1: Determine CDM categories for use by Hydro One
Action Plan #1: Determine CDM categories for use by Hydro One • Hydro One will review the CDM categories used by other utilities • This review will include California, New York, British Columbia • Hydro One will work with the OPA to better understand the CDM categories they plan to use in the 2011 I
Slide 5: Action Plan #1: Schedule
Action Plan #1: Schedule Task Milestone 2nd stakeholder session 22-Mar-11 Review rate application evidence on CDM from selected utilities 15-Apr-11 Finalize CDM survey questionnaire 15-Apr-11 Tabulate CDM survey results 6-May-11 Document CDM survey results 31-May-11 Assess alignment with OPA's IPSP
Slide 6: Action plan #2: Prepare a bottom-up CDM forecast
Action plan #2: Prepare a bottom-up CDM forecast • Hydro One met with the OPA to discuss OEB requirements and intervenor expectations • Hydro One will review historic CDM achieved to date • Hydro One will take into consideration OPA, LDC and other CDM categories to develop forecast 6
Slide 7: Action plan #2: Prepare a bottom-up CDM forecast
Action plan #2: Prepare a bottom-up CDM forecast • Hydro One will ensure consistency with the new IPSP to be filed in 2011 • Hydro One will examine detailed CDM impacts by category and by sector (residential, commercial, industrial) • Hydro One will align the CDM forecast with the OPA on monthly ene
Slide 8: Action Plan #2: Schedule
Action Plan #2: Schedule Task Milestone Meeting with OPA to discuss OEB requirements and intervenor expectations 11-Mar-11 Assess CDM impacts by category April - June 2011 Assess all CDM impacts 30-Jun-11 8
Slide 9: Action plan #3: Provide detailed evidence of CDM impacts in future rate applications (TX)
Action plan # 3: Provide detailed evidence of CDM impacts in future rate applications TX rate application • Hydro One will provide detailed breakdown of CDM impacts by category and by sector • Hydro One will document how we use the above information to estimate the charge determinant forecast 9
Slide 10: Action plan #3: Provide detailed evidence of CDM impacts in future rate applications (DX)
Action plan # 3: Provide detailed evidence of CDM impacts in future rate applications DX rate application • Hydro One will provide detailed breakdown of CDM impacts by category and by sector • Hydro One will document how we use the above information to estimate customer rate class forecast 10
Slide 11: Proposed data collection framework for DX
Proposed data collection framework for DX By category By sector By rate class OPA contracted programs Residential R1, R2, UR, Seasonal Board-approved LDC programs Codes and standards Commercial GSe, GSd, UGe, UGd, ST Federal, provincial and other initiatives Industrial Customer conservation actions
Slide 12: Proposed data collection framework for TX
Proposed data collection framework for TX By category By charge determinant OPA contracted programs Network connection Board-approved LDC programs Codes and standards Transformation connection Federal, provincial and other initiatives Line connection Customer conservation actions (including response
Slide 13: Action Plan 3: Schedule
Action Plan 3: Schedule Task Milestone Preliminary CDM impacts by customer rate class 31-Jul-11 Finalize CDM impacts by customer rate class 31-Aug-11 13