Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST

Vistra — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation

38 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, May 7, 2025

  1. Slide 1: First Quarter 2025 Results

    First Quarter 2025 Results May 7, 2025 1

  2. Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements

    Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti

  3. Slide 3: Agenda

    Agenda Welcome and Safe Harbor Eric Micek, Vice President of Investor Relations Q1 2025 Highlights Jim Burke, President & Chief Executive Officer Q1 2025 Finance Update Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 3 Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

  4. Slide 4: Q1 2025 Highlights

    Q1 2025 Highlights Jim Burke President & Chief Executive Officer 4 Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

  5. Slide 5: Q1 2025 At-A-Glance

    Q1 2025 At-A-Glance DELIVERED REAFFIRMED HEDGED $1,240M $5.5-$6.1B ~95% Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA1 2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance range1,2 Expected Generation for 2025-264 Resilient earnings delivered 2025 Adj. FCFbG1,2 Comprehensive hedging program through forward hedging, guidance range of provides earnings

  6. Slide 6: Continued Execution Against Our Four Strategic Priorities

    Continued Execution Against Our Four Strategic Priorities Integrated Disciplined Resilient Strategic Energy Business Model Capital Allocation Balance Sheet Transition Strong operational and retail Consistent execution on our Current net leverage below our Construction continues on our performance th

  7. Slide 7: Demand Growth Continues to Materialize Across our Markets

    Demand Growth Continues to Materialize Across our Markets Vistra’s diversified fleet and retail portfolio offer multiple ways to create value from secular load growth PJM and ERCOT Load Growth Secular industry growth remains intact despite macro conditions Year-over-year weather adjusted growth in e

  8. Slide 8: Q1 2025 Finance Update

    Q1 2025 Finance Update Kris Moldovan Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 8 Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

  9. Slide 9: Q1 2025 Results

    Q1 2025 Results Favorable weather and commercial operations drive strong start to 2025 Q1 2025 Financial Results Generation2 Adjusted EBITDA1,2 ($ in millions) Q1 2025 was $218 million favorable as compared to Q1 2024, primarily driven by: , • Strong fleet commercial availability • Higher wholesale

  10. Slide 10: Near-term Earnings Outlook

    Near-term Earnings Outlook Integrated model enables strong growth profile amidst industry tailwinds Near-term Earnings Outlook • Comprehensive hedging program supports the near-term Adjusted EBITDA1,2 ($ in millions) outlook while maintaining upside to power market tailwinds in the out-years3 , • ~1

  11. Slide 11: Capital Allocation Update

    Capital Allocation Update1 Balanced approach to shareholder return, financial leverage, and growth • Executed ~$5.2 billion in share repurchases from Nov. 2021 through May 2, 2025, at an average price of ~$31.96 • Currently, ~$1.5 billion remaining under existing share repurchase authorizations expe

  12. Slide 12: About Vistra

    About Vistra 12 Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

  13. Slide 13: America's Leading Integrated Power Provider

    America’s Leading Integrated Power Provider Integrated Fortune 500 retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas Products and services in 18 states and Washington D.C., including all major competitive wholesale markets in the U.S. Retail • Serving approximately 5 million res

  14. Slide 14: Environmental Stewardship

    Environmental Stewardship Vistra’s GHG targets emphasize an energy transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS1 PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION2 Scope 1 and Scope 2 Emissions SO2 Emissions ~15,150 MW Zero Carbon Capacity MW (Million mtCO2e) (‘ s mt) fossil generatio

  15. Slide 15: Social Responsibility & Governance

    Social Responsibility & Governance Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Employee Support • Oversight of Vistra’s sustainability initiatives is governed by the full Vistra board, with oversight of subject matter-specific components deleg

  16. Slide 16: Appendix

    Appendix 16 Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

  17. Slide 17: Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) Overview

    Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) Overview1 The IRA’s nuclear PTC creates revenue stability during periods of lower power prices for nuclear generation Illustrative Revenue Support PTC Mechanism2 • The nuclear PTC is a tax credit of up to $15/MWh • When gross receipts exceed $25/MWh, the PTC amoun

  18. Slide 18: Retail Overview

    Retail Overview Strong margin and counts performance driving Adj. EBITDA growth Highlights • Retail volumes increased 27% YoY driven by growth in the business markets segment and the Energy Harbor acquisition • Grew residential counts in Texas within the quarter and year over year, including our fla

  19. Slide 19: Corporate Debt Profile

    Corporate Debt Profile Vistra remains committed to a long-term net leverage target below 3x1 Balances ($ in millions) Q1 2025 Funded Revolving Credit Facilities $0 Vistra Operations Term Loan B 2,469 Senior Secured Notes 5,144 Senior Unsecured Notes 7,300 2 Revenue Bond Obligations 431 Accounts Rece

  20. Slide 20: Select Debt Balances

    Select Debt Balances Principal outstanding for secured and unsecured debt issued from Vistra Operations Vistra Operations Secured Debt ($ in millions) Q1 2025 Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2030 $2,469 5.125% Senior Secured Notes due May 2025 744 5.050% Senior Secured Notes due December 2

  21. Slide 21: Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview

    Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview Effective March 31, 2025 2025 2026 Texas West East Total Texas West East Total Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 39 43 82 51 55 106 % Hedged 100% 97% 98% 100% 65% 82% Sensitivity to Power Price: + $2.50/mwh ($M) $7 $4 $11 $6 $51 $57

  22. Slide 22: Capacity Positions

    Capacity Positions Effective March 31, 2025 Tenor Zone Position (MW) Average Price ($/MW-day) Tenor Zone Position (MW) Avg. Price ($/KW-mo) East East 2024/2025 PJM - RTO 5,170 $34.30 Winter 24/25 NYISO 1,099 $2.99 2024/2025 PJM - ComEd 2,333 $37.92 2024/2025 ISO-NE 3,347 $3.09 2024/2025 PJM - DEOK 1

  23. Slide 23: Forward Market Pricing

    Forward Market Pricing Effective March 31, 2025 Bal'2025 2026 2027 Bal'2025 2026 2027 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads (ATC, $/MWh) ERCOT North Hub $59.09 $56.76 $54.58 ERCOT West Hub $61.99 $60.50 $58.49 Texas cont. PJM AD Hub $49.59 $51.12 $47.33 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $27.75 $24

  24. Slide 24: Generation Metrics

    Generation Metrics Effective March 31, 2025 Total Generation (TWh) Q1 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2025 CCGT Capacity Factor (%) Q1 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2025 Texas 16.7 18.5 20.0 Texas 35% 44% 48% East 18.0 20.3 27.5 East 62% 62% 63% West 1.5 1.2 0.5 West 70% 55% 23% Total Ongoing Operations 36.2 40.0 48.0 Coal Capac

  25. Slide 25: Asset Fleet Details

    Asset Fleet Details Effective March 31, 2025 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,180 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1

  26. Slide 26: Asset Fleet Details

    Asset Fleet Details Effective March 31, 2025 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543 Lake Road Dayvil

  27. Slide 27: Capital Expenditures

    Capital Expenditures1 Category ($ in millions) 2023A 2024A 2025E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 $730 $785 ~$925 Nuclear Fuel 4 206 307 ~300 Non-Recurring5 8 6 - Solar & Energy Storage Development 6 550 604 ~725 Other Growth7 120 155 ~325 Total Capital Expenditures $1,614 $1,857 ~$2,275 Non-Recurrin

  28. Slide 28: Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline

    Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline Effective March 31, 2025 Online Assets Location ISO In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Development Pipeline Location ISO Status, In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Beaver Valley I & II Shippingport, PA PJM 1976 / 1987 1,872 Oak Hill Rusk County, TX ERCOT

  29. Slide 29: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations 29 Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

  30. Slide 30: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $1,132 $(720) $(490) $77 $(199) $(200) $(68) $(268) Income tax be

  31. Slide 31: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $561 $(336) $(173) $168 $(177) $43 $(25) $18 Income tax benefit 0

  32. Slide 32: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $1,216 $2,133 $902 $486 $(1,794) $2,943 $(131) $2,812 Income

  33. Slide 33: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended March 31, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $(595) $611 $1,142 $49 $(485) $722 $(24) $698 Income tax expense

  34. Slide 34: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $424 $398 $1,749 $434 $(1,527) $1,478 $14 $1,492 Income tax e

  35. Slide 35: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2022 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $1,158 $(586) $(1,127) $(238) $(270) $(1,063) $(147) $(1,210)

  36. Slide 36: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2025 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) $2,310 $2,780 $(90) $(90) $2,220 $2,690 Income tax expense 620 750 0 0 620 750 Interest expense and related charges (a) 1,07

  37. Slide 37: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2025 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Adjusted EBITDA guidance $5,500 $6,100 $(90) $(90) $5,410 $6,010 Interest paid, net (1,098) (1,098) 0 0 (1,098) (1,098) Tax (paid) / received

  38. Slide 38: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward

    Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward 38 Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

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