Truist Financial Corporation · NYSE:TFC
Truist Financial — Investor Presentation (January 2023)
21 slides from Truist Financial's investor presentation, Jan 11, 2023
Slide 1: Three keys to 2023
Investment Advisory Group Annual Outlook 2023 webcast January 11, 2023 Three keys to 2023 Securities and insurance products and services: • are not FDIC or any other government agency insured • are not bank guaranteed • may lose value
Slide 2: Three keys to 2023
Three keys to 2023 Remain defensive Remain tactical Remain open-minded
Slide 3: Key positioning
Key positioning Asset classes Global equities Fixed income Less M ore Less M ore Less M ore attractive attractive attractive attractive attractive attractive U.S. large cap U.S. government Equity U.S. mortgage-backed sec. U.S. mid cap Fixed inc
Slide 4: Economy
Economy Fading growth / easing inflation
Slide 5: U.S. economy is expected to weaken in 2023
U.S. economy is expected to weaken in 2023 Growth of gross domestic product (GDP) by year 2022 Average 2010-2019 = 2.3% 5.9% Forecast range 1.4% to 1.9% 2023 range 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 2.3% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% -0.5% to 0.7% 1.5% -2.8% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f
Slide 6: The most aggressive Fed tightening in years is set to weigh on the economy in 2023
The most aggressive Fed tightening in 40 years is set to weigh on the economy in 2023 Federal Reserve's tightening cycles 1983 1987 1994 1999 2004 2015 2022 6% Fed fund futures implied path 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Months from first rate hike Data s
Slide 7: Consumer inflation scenarios – Wide range of outcomes
Consumer inflation scenarios – Wide range of outcomes but expect it to trend toward 3% to 4% Consumer Price Index scenarios 15% Scenarios YoY, MoM 12% 12.7%, 1.0% 9% 6% 6.2%, 0.5% 3% 3.7%, 0.3% 0% 0.0%, 0.0% -3% -5.8%, -0.5% -6% -9% '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 Data source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Bureau of L
Slide 8: Equity markets
Equity markets Choppy waters to continue
Slide 9: Remain defensively positioned shorter term given elevated recession risks
Remain defensively positioned shorter term given elevated recession risks Recovery Pe ak Trough Recovery Recession 1 3 2 NEUTRAL RISK UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT RISK NEUTRAL RISK Growth is firm RISK Outlook improving Growth is firm Outlook deteriorating Source: Truist IAG Asset Allocation does not ensur
Slide 10: Estimated 2023 S&P 500 range = 3400 to 4300
Estimated 2023 S&P 500 range = 3400 to 4300 S&P 500 price with estimated 2023 range 4900 4600 Top end of range 4300 4000 3700 Pre-pandemic peak 3400 Bottom end of range 3100 2800 2500 2200 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 Data source: Truist IAG, FactSet. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Slide 11: Starting 2023 on defense but prepared to move to offense later in the year
Starting 2023 on defense but prepared to move to offense later in the year S&P 500 returns around recessions Peak to trough decline 1-year later from trough 75% 68% 58% 45% 40% 39% 38% 37% 40% 32% 39% 31% 29% -15% -14% -17% -14% -21% -21% -20% -24% -27% -29% -36% -37% -34% -48% -57% Nov-48 - Jul-53
Slide 12: We see relative value below the market's surface
We see relative value below the market’s surface S&P 500 Equal Weight Index price relative to S&P 500 at multi-year high 105 100 95 90 85 80 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 Data source: Truist IAG, FactSet. Left chart: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF.
Slide 13: Fixed income
Truist Advisory Services, Inc. Fixed income Bonds are back TRUIST HR Wealth
Slide 14: Following a difficult year, bonds are back
Following a difficult year, bonds are back U.S. Agg annual returns U.S. Agg 5-year average total 35% returns by starting yield range 30% 14.1% The Agg index is 25% currently yielding 4.7% 20% 15% 9.4% 10% 6.9% 5% 5.6% 0% 3.2% 2.3% -5% The Agg posted consecutive negative annual returns for the first
Slide 15: Fed hike expectations creating value in front end of curve
Fed hike expectations creating value in front end of curve for passive income seekers U.S. Treasury yields Yield to maturity (year-end 2021) Yield to maturity (year-end 2022) 4.8% 4.7% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1m 3m 6m 1Y 2Y
Slide 16: Longer-term bonds should provide portfolio ballast
As economic growth and inflation fade, longer-term bonds should provide portfolio ballast U.S. government bond index returns by maturity Bloomberg U.S. Government Bond 1-3 Year Index Bloomberg U.S. Government Bond Index Bloomberg U.S. Government: Long Bond Index 15.4% 14.5% 11.9% 10.8% 10.1% 7.4% 7.
Slide 17: Three keys to 2023
Three keys to 2023 Remain defensive Remain tactical Remain open-minded
Slide 18: TRUIST
TRUIST HH Truist Advisory Services, Inc. Wealth
Slide 19: Thank you
Thank you Your Truist advisory team can answer any questions that weren’t addressed on today’s webcast.
Slide 20: Disclosures
Disclosures Advisor y managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all Asset classes are represented by the following indexes. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. investor s. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm br
Slide 21: Disclosures
Disclosures U.S. Government Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Government Index which is an unmanaged index comprised of S&P 500 Energy Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are all publicly issued, non-convertible domestic
Truist Financial — Investor Presentation (January 2023) on 6ix