Slide 1: 2025 Commercial Market Outlook
2025 Commercial Market Outlook Darren Hulst | Vice President, Commercial Marketing June 15th, 2025 Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH | CSM | JUNE2025
Slide 2: A quarter of this century has passed
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | LOOKING BACK A quarter of this century has passed Copyright © 2025 Boeing. Copyright All rights © 2025 reserved. Boeing. | CSM All rights | DAH reserved. | ISTAT-AM | DAH | CSM | |JUNE2025 03MAR25
Slide 3: World Economy Doubled
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | CURRENT VIEW World Economy Doubled 2x Middle East & Africa Latin America 2000 to 2025: Asia-Pacific + 2 billion people Europe 150% trade growth 24% to 41% GDP share of emerging markets North America More mobile phones than people 2000 2025 Source: S&P Global Market Intell
Slide 4: Commercial air traffic has tripled and the fleet has doubled in size
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | LOOKING BACK Commercial air traffic has tripled and the fleet has doubled in size Passenger traffic (RPK in trillion) Active fleet 12 30,000 10 3x 25,000 2x 8 20,000 6 15,000 4 10,000 2 5,000 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source
Slide 5: Increased versatility: single-aisle efficiency and widebody flexibility
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | LOOKING BACK Increased versatility: single-aisle efficiency and widebody flexibility Single-aisle Widebody 30% 15% 20% 10% 2000 2025 2000 2025 10% 5% 0% 0% 090-099 140-149 190-199 240-249 160-169 220-229 280-289 340-349 400+ Seats per flight Seats per flight Source: Ciriu
Slide 6: Tourism growth continues
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | CURRENT VIEW Tourism growth continues 200 Travelers/ 175 world population 150 Index 1995=100 125 Trade / GDP 100 75 50 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Tourism Economics, WTO trade statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Boeing Analysis Note: travelers are i
Slide 7: Commercial aviation is increasingly competitive
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | CURRENT VIEW Commercial aviation is increasingly competitive Top 10 airlines 45% Top 10 airlines 30% Capacity Capacity 2000 2025 Source: Cirium Dio Mi, OAG Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH | CSM | JUNE2025
Slide 8: Commercial aviation is increasingly competitive
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | CURRENT VIEW Commercial aviation is increasingly competitive Top 10 airlines North America Europe North America Middle East 45% 30% Asia Pacific Capacity Capacity Europe Asia Pacific 2000 2025 Source: Cirium Dio Mi, OAG Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH
Slide 9: Global new connections
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | CURRENT VIEW Global new connections Within Within Between Within Between Between The Americas Europe, Middle East, Africa EMA / Asia Asia Asia / Americas / Americas 1,600 EMA (EMA) 500 4,000 200 6,000 70 Net added airport pairs between 2000 and 2025 EMA = Eurasia, Middle
Slide 10: Meeting the market
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | LOOKING BACK Meeting the market 1 billion passengers carried Hardest-working single-aisle fleet 30 years of widebody versatility Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH | CSM | JUNE2025
Slide 11: Proven resilience and a growth industry
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Proven resilience and 16 a growth industry 5% annualized growth from 1990 14 12 +45% growth 2018-2030 10 RPKs (trillions) Actual / projected passenger traffic 8 6 4 Global financial 9/11 crisis 2 Asian Global & Recession financial SARS pandemic crisis 1990-2025 0
Slide 12: Passenger fleet & deliveries: industry shortage of ~1,500 new jets
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Passenger fleet & deliveries: industry shortage of ~1,500 new jets Shortage: Shortage: Single-aisle ~1,200 Widebody ~300 20,000 1400 5,000 500 18,000 4,500 450 1200 16,000 4,000 400 14,000 1000 3,500 350 12,000 deliveries 3,000 300 800 10,000 fleet 2,500 250 600
Slide 13: Airplane deliveries lagging air traffic growth
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Airplane deliveries lagging air traffic growth -5% +60% Industry level Industry traffic 2012 vs. 2024 commercial deliveries 2012 vs. 2024 Source: IATA, Cirium Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH | CSM | JUNE2025
Slide 14: Steady long-term forecast driven by fundamentals
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Steady long-term forecast driven by fundamentals 2.3% World Economy (GDP) 4.2% Passenger Traffic (RPK) 3.7% Cargo Traffic (CTK) 3.1% Fleet Growth (Jets) Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Boeing CMO 2025 Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH |
Slide 15: Emerging market traffic growth outpacing global average
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Emerging market traffic growth outpacing global average Within region Between regions 10 14 9 2024-2044 2024-2044 CAGR: 12 CAGR: 8 Between Emerging Emerging 10 RPKs (trillions) 7 6% RPKs (trillions) Markets 5% Markets 6 8 5 Touching 6 4 Emerging Markets 3% 3 4 Ad
Slide 16: Regionally diverse new airplane demand, 75% single-aisle
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Regionally diverse new airplane demand, 75% single-aisle Latin America Middle East & Africa China 5% 21% 955 | Freighters 10% North 20% 43,600 7,815 | Widebody America deliveries 19% South & Southeast 33,285 | Single-aisle 20% 5% Asia Oceania & 1,545 | Regional J
Slide 17: Traffic growth outpaces fleet
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Traffic growth outpaces fleet 2004 2024 2044 Freighters 10% 9% 8% Regional Jet 3% 9% 15% 17% ~16,780 16% ~27,150 ~49,640 Widebody 20% 27,150 fleet 55% fleet 49,640 66% fleet 72% Single-aisle +60% +80% Source: Cirium, Boeing CMO 2025 Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All r
Slide 18: Airline productivity gains moderating
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Airline productivity gains moderating RPK growth 2004-2024 Fleet Size Utilization Avg. Seats Load factors 2025-2044 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: IATA, Cirium, Boeing CMO 2025 Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH | CSM | JUNE2025
Slide 19: Replacement demand increasing
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Replacement demand increasing Replacement Growth 2024 In- Service Fleet 27,150 21,100 22,500 ~50% of 2044 Fleet ~50% of 2044 Fleet Retained Replacement Growth 2044 Fleet 49,640 Source: Cirium, Boeing CMO 2025 Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH |
Slide 20: Growth and replacement demand vary by region
Growth and replacement demand vary by region Oceania & Latin Northeast Latin Asia Middle East America America & Africa Oceania & North America North 3% South & Northeast 5% 6% Southeast Asia 6% America 26% Asia 8% 30% 11% South & Southeast Asia 9% 21,100 22,500 Replacement Middle East 12% Growth & A
Slide 21: Regional needs drive aircraft demand dynamics
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Regional needs drive aircraft demand dynamics Single-aisle deliveries Widebody share of deliveries 45% Eurasia 40% 35% China 30% South & Southeast Asia 25% North America 20% 15% Middle East/Africa 10% Latin America 5% Northeast Asia & 0% Oceania Middle Northeast
Slide 22: Low-cost carrier single-aisle fleet: increasing regional balance
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Low-cost carrier single-aisle fleet: increasing regional balance Advanced Economies Emerging Markets 8,000 7,000 6,000 Growth Growth 42% 72% 5,000 4,000 Replacement 3,000 58% 2,000 Replacement 1,000 28% Retained fleet Retained fleet 0 2024 2044 2024 2044 Source:
Slide 23: Aircraft innovation drives network & fleet optimization
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Aircraft innovation drives network & fleet optimization 2000 2025 Widebody seats: 2025 vs. 2000 140% 62% 43% 120% short-haul share short-haul share 100% of widebody of widebody 80% 60% operations operations 40% 20% 0% -20% Source: Cirium, Boeing CMO 2025 Copyrigh
Slide 24: Globalizing passenger widebody fleet
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Globalizing passenger widebody fleet 2044 2024 2004 30% 38% 54% ~3,960 46% ~4,400 ~8,320 fleet fleet fleet 62% 70% North America Rest of the & Eurasia World Source: Cirium, Boeing CMO 2025 Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH | CSM | JUNE2025
Slide 25: Resilient world air cargo market
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Resilient world air cargo market 450 400 350 300 250 200 Global CTKs, 150 Indexed 2000 = 100 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: IATA Monthly Statistics, Boeing Analysis Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. | DAH | CSM | JUNE202
Slide 26: Air cargo plays a vital role in the global economy
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Air cargo plays a vital role in the global economy Freighter Deliveries 2025-2044 Large widebody Standard body > 80 tonnes <40 tonnes Supply chain resilience 885 2,900 1,145 Specialized cargo deliveries Expanding e-commerce 870 Medium widebody 40-80 tonnes SOURCE
Slide 27: Efficiency trends
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | FORECAST Efficiency trends $4 trillion economic impact New aircraft: fleet renewal, new technology Operations: improving efficiencies 87 million Removals: CO2 offsets, technology jobs supported Energy: SAF, alternative energy 4% GDP global aviation contribution 0.14 33% t
Slide 28: Meeting the market
COMMERCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK | SUMMARY Meeting the market Market is resilient traffic tripled in a quarter-century Aviation is a growth industry 43,600 new deliveries through 2044 Versatile products for a dynamic market robust Boeing aircraft family demand Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Slide 29: Boeing
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