National Bank Of Canada · TSX:NA
National Bank Of Canada — CSFB Wholesale Banking Conference 2003
10 slides from National Bank Of Canada's conference presentation, Oct 22, 2003
Slide 1: CSFB Wholesale Banking Conference
CSFB WHOLESALE BANKING CONFERENCE Louis Vachon Senior Vice-President – Treasury and Financial Markets Toronto, October 22 2003 1
Slide 2: Regimes, Risk Factors and the Liquidity Cycle
Comment: Level of liquidity influences duration and market Regimes, Risk Factors and the Liquidity Cycle risk. Change/momentum of liquidity determines credit risk. Liquidity Below Average Above Average Rebound Calm Low Rising Momentum Liquidity Credit Risk Falling High Turbulence Speculation High Lo
Slide 3: Regimes, Risk Factors and the Liquidity Cycle
Comment: Level of liquidity influences duration and market Regimes, Risk Factors and the Liquidity Cycle risk. Change/momentum of liquidity determines credit risk. Liquidity Below Average Above Average Rebound Calm Low Rising 2003 Momentum Liquidity Credit Risk 1998 2002 1999 2001 2000 Falling High
Slide 4: Regimes, Risk Factors and the Liquidity Cycle
Comment: Level of liquidity influences duration and market Regimes, Risk Factors and the Liquidity Cycle risk. Change/momentum of liquidity determines credit risk. Liquidity Below Average Above Average Rebound Calm Low Rising Macro Trading Equity Trading FX Trading Retail Brokerage Momentum Credit S
Slide 5: Correlation: S&P 500 vs. LB Aggregate; S&P/TSX vs. SCM Universe
CORRELATION: S&P 500 VS. LB AGGREGATE CORRELATION: S&P/TSX VS. SCM UNIVERSE 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 52W 0.60 0.60 0.40 0.40 0.20 0.20 0 0 -0.20 -0.20 104W 52W -0.40 -0.40 156W -0.60 -0.60 104W -0.80 -0.80 156W -1.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 -1.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: DATA
Slide 6: Secular / Cyclical Growth - Trading Activities
Secular / Cyclical Growth - Trading Activities Secular • Demand for risk management products • Doubled number of profit centers / activities since 1998: equity derivatives, commodity derivatives, fund-linked notes • VAR model and regulatory regime Cyclical • Positive interest rate and FX environment
Slide 7: NBC Trading/Securities gains/ALM Revenues
NBC Trading/Securities gains/ALM Revenues USD $ CND $ (14 000 000 ) 140 000 000 (12 000 000 ) 120 000 000 (10 000 000 ) 100 000 000 (8 000 000 ) 80 000 000 (6 000 000 ) 60 000 000 (4 000 000 ) 40 000 000 (2 000 000 ) 20 000 000 0 0 avr-00 janv-01 avr-01 janv-02 avr-02 janv-03 avr-03 juil-00 oct-00 j
Slide 8: Canada: Stronger balance sheet than a decade ago
Canada: Stronger balance sheet than a decade ago Canadian manufacturing: Debt/equity and debt burden 50 %, 4-quarter moving average 90 45 Shaded areas: U.S. recessions 85 40 80 35 75 30 70 25 65 Ratio of debt to equity (R) 20 60 15 Ratio of 55 interest payments 10 to EBITDA* (L) 50 88 89 90 91 92 93
Slide 9: Canada: Much easier to launch a CAPEX program
Canada: Much easier to launch a CAPEX program Financing gap * nonfinancial businesses 1.6 Ratio Shades: U.S. recessions 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 * Ratio of capital expenditures to internally generated funds Source: NBF Economic Research 9
Slide 10: Forward-looking statements and investor relations contact
This presentation may contain certain forward looking statements about the operations, objectives and strategies of the National Bank of Canada. Such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, including legislative or regulator
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