Alm Equity Ab · OMXSTO:ALM
Alm Equity Ab — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation
27 slides from Alm Equity Ab's earnings presentation, Feb 5, 2025
Slide 1: Results 2024 Q4
Results 2024│Q4 1 October to 31 December 2024
Slide 2: Highlights
Highlights 2024 performance better than expected backed by strong Q4 financial results ▪ The Q4 financial statements were lifted by a much lower level of weather- related claims than in Q4 2023 and major claims below the normal level. The Q4 period also saw a fair improvement in the undiscounted und
Slide 3: Financial highlights, Q4
Financial highlights, Q4 Lower weather-related claims significantly lifted the insurance service result ▪ Insurance revenue increased by 6.2% to over DKK 2.8 billion, and the Financial results insurance service result grew significantly to DKK 440 million. DKKm ▪ The increase in the insurance servic
Slide 4: Financial highlights, 2024
Financial highlights, 2024 Growth in insurance service result in spite of lower run-offs and a higher level of motor claims ▪ Insurance revenue increased by 5.2% to over DKK 11 billion, and the insurance Financial results service result grew to DKK 1,443 million. DKKm ▪ The increase in the insurance
Slide 5: Major claims, AB Group
Major claims, AB Group % 10 8.8 8 6.3 Normal level: 7.0 6 5.5 5.5 Average: 4.7 4.0 4 3.0 2.4 2.1 2 0 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Average for the period Q1 23-Q4 24 5
Slide 6: Major claims, Commercial Lines
Major claims, Commercial Lines % 18 16.6 16 14 Normal level: 12.0 11.2 12 10.3 10.3 10 Average: 8.3 8 6.4 6 4.2 3.8 3.5 4 2 0 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Average for the period Q1 23-Q4 24 6
Slide 7: Payout for 2024
Payout for 2024 Payout ratio of 96% for 2024 Total payout 2024 DKKm Recommended ordinary dividend (DKK 0.6 per share) 904 Completed share buyback 150 New share buyback programme related to 2024 100 Payout related to 2024 result 1,154 Earnings for distribution DKKm 2024 =96% Profit after tax 777 Adju
Slide 8: Insurance operations
Insurance operations 8
Slide 9: Insurance service result
Insurance service result Higher Q4 insurance service result in both Personal Lines and Commercial Lines ▪ Insurance service result of DKK 440 million generated on the back of strong growth in Insurance service result (continuing activities) Personal Lines, a moderate level of major claims and signif
Slide 10: Insurance revenue
Insurance revenue Strong growth in Personal Lines continues and Commercial Lines back with fair growth ▪ The Q4 period saw sustained premium growth in Personal Lines, while growth Growth in insurance revenue1 in Commercial Lines was back after flat development in Q3, which was impacted by premium pa
Slide 11: Claims ratio
Claims ratio Fair improvement of undiscounted underlying claims ratio ▪ Claims ratio improved by 3.8 percentage points Development in underlying claims ratio ▪ Significantly lower expenses for weather-related claims Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Change ▪ Moderate level of major claims, albeit slightly higher than
Slide 12: Personal Lines
Personal Lines Own measures more than offsetting adverse development in motor claims and driving fall in expense ratio Combined ratio (continuing activities) ▪ Decline in claims experience relative to last year Personal Lines ▪ Sustained increase in motor claims, but favourable effect of profitabili
Slide 13: Commercial Lines
Commercial Lines Lower weather-related claims driving improvement in claims experience Combined ratio (continuing activities) ▪ The claims experience improved by 2.7 percentage points, mainly driven Commercial Lines by much lower expenses for weather-related claims. ▪ The interest rate decline had a
Slide 14: Financials
Financials 14
Slide 15: Synergies
Synergies Status on synergies from Codan integration DKKm Realised in 2023 Realised in 2024 Target for 2024 Administration 40 40 40 40 160 45 45 49 59 198 210 Claims processing 17 21 27 77 43 50 53 55 201 180 12 25 61 60 IT & infrastructure 5578 10 11 16 24 Total 57 62 68 75 262 98 106 118 138 460 4
Slide 16: Investment result
Investment result Satisfactory investment result in Q4 Investment return Q4 2024 ▪ Satisfactory investment return overall in Q4 2024. DKKm Assets Return Return % ▪ The Q4 period was characterised by several major events of significance to the Bonds etc. 20,016 193 1.0 financial markets, including th
Slide 17: Outlook
Outlook 17
Slide 18: Outlook for 2025
Outlook for 2025 Insurance service result excl. run-offs DKK 1.5-1.7 billion Initial guidance Sub-components included in outlook Investment result DKK 200 million for 2025 Initial guidance Other income and expenses DKK -125 million Combined ratio 85.5-87.5 Initial guidance Expense ratio 17 Profit be
Slide 19: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 20: Share profile
Share profile ▪ Danish non-life insurer with a market share of ~16% ▪ Ambitions for profitable organic growth ▪ Focus on realising scale economies ▪ Manageable integration risk in terms of realisation of significant cost synergies ▪ Stable capital requirements ▪ High return on targeted capital ▪ Eff
Slide 21: Overview of significant synergy initiatives
Overview of significant synergy initiatives Expected run-rate, Run-rate, 2023: Run-rate, 2024: 2025: ~DKK 350m ~DKK 550m 2024 2025 ~DKK 650m 2026 DKK Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ~DKK ~DKK ~DKK Expansion of system to detect 35m 20m 10m insurance fraud, including the addition of more areas to the Technolo
Slide 22: Total capital
Total capital DKKm Q4 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Tier 1 unrestricted 3,958 4,341 4,097 4,269 SCR ratio Tier 1 restricted 397 397 397 397 Tier 2 capital 1,295 1,295 1,294 1,294 181% Tier 3 capital 0 0 0 0 Total capital for the group for solvency coverage 5,650 6,033 5,789 5,960 purposes Solvency ca
Slide 23: Solvency ratio sensitivities
SCR ratio Sensitivity analysis 184% 186% 183% 184% 183% 181% 177% 176% 179% 176% 172% 179% 181% 179% Limited sensitivity in the event of market movements Hedging of interest rate risk and Solvency ratio sensitivities (%) currency risk Largest impact in the event of changes to mortgage bonds Full rec
Slide 24: Investor base
Other Investor base 0,3% USA 7,1% Europe 23,2% Breakdown of free float Denmark Nordics 65,0% 4,3% 6% Development in investor base 4% 2% Geographical movements in ownership 0% interest -2% 31 December 2023 - 31 December 2024 -4% -6% -8% -10% Denmark Other Europe USA Nordics 24
Slide 25: Market share – Q4 2023
Market share – Q4 2023 Source: F&P 25
Slide 26: Investor Relations - contact details, Financial calendar
Investor Relations - contact details Financial calendar Mads Thinggaard Head of Investor Relations, Rating & ESG Reporting +45 2025 5469 Annual report 2024 27 February 2025 abmati@almbrand.dk Annual general meeting 2025 10 April 2025 Interim report, Q1 2025 1 May 2025 https://investorrelations.almbr
Slide 27: Disclaimer
Disclaimer FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS The statements made in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates and projections made by management. All statements about future financial performance are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materiall