Alm Equity Ab · OMXSTO:ALM
Alm Equity Ab — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
25 slides from Alm Equity Ab's earnings presentation, Nov 7, 2024
Slide 1: Results 2024 Q3
Results 2024│Q3 1 July to 30 September 2024
Slide 2: Highlights
Highlights Satisfactory Q3 performance leading to profit upgrade ▪ Q3 financial results characterised by sustained increase in motor-related claims, while major claims were at a moderate level. Weather-related claims were slightly above the normal level, but lower than last year. ▪ Strong growth in
Slide 3: Financial highlights
Financial highlights Lower weather-related claims lifted insurance service result Financial results ▪ Insurance revenue increased to DKK 2.8 billion, and the insurance service DKKm result grew to DKK 400 million. Q3 2024 Q3 2023 ▪ Insurance service result growth was driven in particular by lower wea
Slide 4: Major Claims, AB Group
Major Claims, AB Group % 10 8.8 8 6.3 7.0 6 5.5 5.5 4.0 4 2.4 2.1 2 0 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 4
Slide 5: Major Claims, Commercial
Major Claims, Commercial % 18 16.6 16 14 11.2 12.0 12 10.3 10.3 10 8 6.4 6 3.8 3.5 4 2 0 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 5
Slide 6: Insurance operations
Insurance operations 6
Slide 7: Insurance service result
Insurance service result Good balance between Personal Lines and Commercial Lines in Q3 ▪ Insurance service result of DKK 400 million generated on the back of strong growth in Insurance service result (continuing activities) Personal Lines, a moderate level of major claims and milder weather conditi
Slide 8: Insurance revenue
Insurance revenue Third consecutive quarter of strong growth in Personal Lines Growth in insurance revenue1 ▪ Third consecutive quarter of strong growth in Personal Lines, while the flat development in Commercial Lines was affected by premium patterns related to profitability-enhancing initiatives.
Slide 9: Claims ratio
Claims ratio Moderate improvement of undiscounted underlying claims ratio ▪ Claims ratio improved by 50 bps Development in underlying claims ratio ▪ Lower weather-related claims expenses Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Change ▪ Headwinds from motor claims Claims ratio 68.6 69.1 -0.5 ▪ Run-offs lower than in Q3 2023
Slide 10: Personal Lines
Personal Lines Own initiatives exceeding adverse development in motor claims and driving fall in expense ratio Combined ratio (continuing activities) ▪ Decline in claims experience relative to last year Personal Lines ▪ Sustained increase in motor claims, but favourable effect of profitability- enha
Slide 11: Commercial Lines
Commercial Lines Adverse development in claims experience Combined ratio (continuing activities) ▪ Headwinds in motor claims and workers’ compensation claims caused Commercial Lines the claims experience to deteriorate by 2.2 percentage points ▪ Positive effect driven by milder weather conditions, b
Slide 12: Financials
Financials 12
Slide 13: Synergies
Synergies Status on synergies from Codan integration DKKm Realised 2023 Realised 2024 Target for 2024 Administration 40 40 40 40 160 45 45 49 139 210 Claims processing 121721 27 77 43 50 53 146 180 10 16 IT & infrastructure 5578 25 11 37 60 Total 57 62 68 75 262 98 106 118 322 450 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ▪ Real
Slide 14: Investment result
Investment result Strong investment result in Q3 Investment return Q3 2024 ▪ Conditions in the financial markets were generally good in Q3 2024, as DKKm Assets Return Return % reflected in a strong investment result. Bonds etc. 18,524 483 2.6 ▪ In particular, the portfolio of shares and bonds contri
Slide 15: Outlook
Outlook 15
Slide 16: Outlook for 2024
Outlook for 2024 Insurance service result excl. run-offs in Q4 DKK 1.25-1.35 billion Lifted by DKK 50 million and guidance range narrowed Sub-components included in outlook Investment result DKK 450 million for 2024 Lifted by DKK 50 million Other income and expenses DKK -125 million Combined ratio 8
Slide 17: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 18: Share profile
Share profile ▪ Danish non-life insurer with a market share of ~16% ▪ Ambitions for profitable organic growth ▪ Focus on realising scale economies ▪ Manageable integration risk in terms of realisation of significant cost synergies ▪ Stable capital requirements ▪ High return on targeted capital ▪ Eff
Slide 19: Overview of significant synergy initiatives
Overview of significant synergy initiatives Expected run-rate, Run-rate, 2022: Run-rate, 2023: 2024: ~DKK 200m ~DKK 350m 2023 2024 ~DKK 500m 2025 DKK Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ~DKK ~DKK Expansion of system to detect insurance fraud, 35m 15m including the addition of more areas to the Technology to det
Slide 20: Total capital
Total capital DKKm Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Tier 1 unrestricted 4,341 4,097 4,269 3,949 SCR ratio Tier 1 restricted 397 397 397 397 Tier 2 capital 1,295 1,294 1,294 1,294 194% Tier 3 capital 0 0 0 0 Total capital for the group for solvency coverage 6,033 5,789 5,960 5,640 purposes Solvency ca
Slide 21: Solvency ratio sensitivities
SCR ratio Sensitivity analysis 194% 198% 199% 196% 199% 194% 197% 191% 192% 192% 192% 189% 188% 185% Limited sensitivity in the event of market movements Solvency ratio sensitivities (%) Hedging of interest rate risk and currency risk Largest impact in the event of changes to mortgage bonds Full rec
Slide 22: Investor base
Investor base USA 6% Europe 23% Breakdown of free float Nordics Denmark 5% 66% 6% 4% 2% Development in investor base 0% Geographical movements in ownership interest -2% -4% 31 December 2023 - 31 October 2024 -6% -8% -10% Denmark Other Europe USA Nordics 22
Slide 23: Market Share – Q3 2023
Market Share – Q3 2023 Market Share 14,8% 2,9% 24,4% Tryg Alm. Brand Group* Topdanmark 4,3% Gjensidige Forsikring If 4,9% Sygeforsikringen Danmark LB Forsikring 5,2% 16,4% GF Forsikring A/S PFA Pension 5,5% Others 7,2% 14,4% Source: F&P 23
Slide 24: Investor Relations – contact details and financial calendar
Investor Relations – contact details Financial calendar Mads Thinggaard Head of Investor Relations, Rating & ESG Reporting +45 2025 5469 Interim report, Q3 2024 7 November 2024 abmati@almbrand.dk Interim report, Q4 2024 5 February 2025 Annual report 2024 27 February 2025 https://investorrelations.al
Slide 25: Disclaimer
Disclaimer FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS The statements made in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates and projections made by management. All statements about future financial performance are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materiall