First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA
First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (October 2025)
28 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Oct 30, 2025
Slide 1: Making Sense: Monthly Market Update
Making Sense Monthly Market Update Brent Ciliano, SVP Chief Investment Officer Phillip Neuhart, SVP Director of Market and Economic Research Recorded on October 30, 2025
Slide 2: What are we going to cover?
What are we going to cover? 1. Economic update: Federal Reserve policy | Inflation & labor market | Consumer spending 2. Market update: Equity markets | Valuations | Fixed income
Slide 3: Economic & policy update
Economic & policy update Labor market & inflation | Fed policy | Household spending
Slide 4: The economic narrative differs depending where you look
The economic narrative differs depending where you look Tailwinds Headwinds • GDP growth: +3% • Labor market has softened; hiring is weaker • Stock markets at all-time highs • Inflation is running closer to 3% than 2%; tariffs may push prices higher still • Resilient household demand and spending •
Slide 5: Official labor data shed light on an economy from at least two months ago
Official labor data shed light on an economy from at least two months ago Monthly Change in US Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate (3-month average) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Data as of Septe
Slide 6: Layoffs may be increasing, but available data is not telling that story
Layoffs may be increasing, but available data is not telling that story Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act Notices and Initial Jobless Claims Source: openICPSR, U.S. Department of Labor, University of Michigan, First Citizens Bank Data as of October 17, 2025 6
Slide 7: As the Fed moved to cut rates, few core-age adults were not working
As the Fed moved to cut rates, few core-age adults were not working Employment to Population Ratio, Age 25-54 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Data as of September 5, 2025 7
Slide 8: Easy financial conditions are likely delivering a positive growth impulse
Easy financial conditions are likely delivering a positive growth impulse US Financial Conditions Index Source: Goldman Sachs, First Citizens Bank Data as of October 23, 2025 8
Slide 9: Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by another 1%
Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by another 1% Federal Funds Target Rate 2025 2026 2027 FOMC Median Projection 3.625 3.375 3.125 Additional cuts 1 cut 1 cut 1 11 cut Market-Implied Forecast 3.625 3.125 2.875 Additional cuts 1 cut 2 cuts 11 cut Source: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, First Citizens Ba
Slide 10: Inflation is running at a 3% pace
Inflation is running at a 3% pace Consumer Price Index (Core, ex-food and energy) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Data as of October 24, 2025 10
Slide 11: Households and markets both see inflation staying elevated this year
Households and markets both see inflation staying elevated this year Household Inflation Expectations Market Inflation Expectations Source: Bloomberg Source: University of Michigan, First Citizens Bank Note: The 5Y5Y swap rate is the implied inflation rate in years 6-10 from today. Data as of Octobe
Slide 12: The US now collects as much in tariff revenue as in corporate income taxes
The US now collects as much in tariff revenue as in corporate income taxes US Customs Receipts: Tariff Revenue, 12-Month Rolling Sum Monthly US Treasury Receipts (3-month average) Source: U.S. Department of Treasury, First Citizens Bank Source: U.S. Department of Treasury, First Citizens Bank Data a
Slide 13: The government has run persistent deficits with the economy strong
The government has run persistent deficits with the economy strong Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Federal Reserve, First Citizens Bank Data as of October 28, 2025 13
Slide 14: Households invested in stocks have never been wealthier
Households invested in stocks have never been wealthier Equity, Mutual Fund, and Pension Entitlement Wealth Relative to Annual Consumer Spending Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), First Citizens Bank Data as of September 26, 2025 Note: "Stock market wealth" is an aggreg
Slide 15: Consumer spending growth continues to moderate but remains healthy
Consumer spending growth continues to moderate but remains healthy Consumer Spending Growth Consumer Spending Growth by Category Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), First Citizens Bank Source: Bloomberg, First Citizens Bank Data through August 2025 Data as of August 2025 15
Slide 16: The number of airline travelers has tracked with last year at record levels
The number of airline travelers has tracked with last year at record levels Number of Airport Travelers Passing Through TSA Checkpoints Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, First Citizens Bank Data as of October 27, 2025 16
Slide 17: Market update
Market update Equity markets | Valuations | Fixed income
Slide 18: Stock-market gains have been uninterrupted in the second half of 2025
Stock-market gains have been uninterrupted in the second half of 2025 S&P 500 Index Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 10/28/2025 18
Slide 19: S&P 500 valuations are robust
S&P 500 valuations are robust S&P 500 Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings Ratio 28X 24X 20X +1 Standard Deviation 16X Average 12X -1 Standard Deviation 8X 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Source: St Source: rategas Strategas.. Data as 9/300/20 9/3 25. /2025 19
Slide 20: Earnings – not valuation – have been the main driver of total return
Earnings – not valuation – have been the main driver of total return Contribution to S&P 500 Total Return Since Jan. 1, 2022 60% Dividends (reinvested) Earnings Growth 50% 13% 48% P/E Change Total 40% 29% 30% 20% 10% 6% 0% Source: Bloomberg, First Citizens Bank. Data as of 8/31/2025. 20
Slide 21: Corporate earnings
Corporate earnings 19% Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin 18.4% ▪ CY 2025 estimated growth is 11.0% 18% Q3 2025 estimated growth is 9.2% 17% 16% ▪ CY 2026 estimated growth is 13.9% 15% 14% ▪ Average growth since 1950 is 7.6% 13% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: FactSet, Bloom
Slide 22: Recent dollar weakness garners investor attention
Recent dollar weakness garners investor attention US Dollar Index Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 10/30/2025 22
Slide 23: S&P 500 price target
S&P 500 price target Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Percent Next Twelve Months Change from Price Level 10/28/25 Bear 4,900 -28.9% Base 6,800 -1.3% Bull 7,450 8.1% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 23
Slide 24: The Treasury yield curve has continued to steepen
The Treasury yield curve has continued to steepen 5.0% US Treasury Yield Curve 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% As of Latest date - 10/29/2025 3.4% 12/31/2024 3.2% 1 3 6 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 MM M Yr Yr Yr
Slide 25: Treasury yields have moved lower since the Fed's rate cut, unlike last year
Treasury yields have moved lower since the Fed’s rate cut, unlike last year Change in 10-Year US Treasury Yield Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 10/30/2025 25
Slide 26: Fixed income is still offering attractive yield relative to post-GFC cycle
Fixed income is still offering attractive yield relative to post-GFC cycle US Fixed Income Indices Yield-to-Worst Index As of 10/29/2025 2-Year Treasury 3.6% 10-Year Treasury 4.1% Aggregate Bond 4.3% Intermediate Government/Credit 3.9% Municipal Bond 3.5% Investment Grade Corporate Bond 4.8% High Yi
Slide 27: Making Sense
Making Sense Brent Ciliano, SVP In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes Chief Investment Officer every Monday morning Q&As | Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top questions we’re hearing from clients Phillip Neuhart, SVP Director of Market and Market updates | Monthly intera
Slide 28: Authors Important Disclosures
Authors Important Disclosures Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer The views expressed are those of the author(s) at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. This Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank material is for informational purposes only and is not
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