Vinci Sa · EURONEXT:DG
Vinci Sa — Investor Day (November 2015)
78 slides from Vinci Sa's investor day presentation, Nov 27, 2015
Slide 1: Investor Day Concessions update
Investor Day Concessions update RUEIL MALMAISON, 27 NOVEMBER 2015
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward-looking objectives and statements about VINCI’s and VINCI Concessions’ financial situations, operating results, business activities and expansion strategies. These objectives and statements are based on assumptions that are dependent upon significant
Slide 3: Introduction: Strategy of VINCI Concessions
Introduction Strategy of VINCI Concessions
Slide 4: Program
Program 09:00 – 09:45 Welcome & Introduction 11:30 – 12:15 Focus on VINCI Airports Pierre COPPEY, Chairman and CEO, Nicolas NOTEBAERT, Chairman and CEO, VINCI Concessions VINCI Airports 09:45 – 10:30 Concessions highlights • Business highlights • Upcoming challenges Olivier MATHIEU, EVP and CFO, VIN
Slide 5: Concessions over time
Concessions over time 2000 Merger with GTM 2014 Birth of the VINCI group 2006 Opening of 75% of 2011 VINCI Park’s capital 1970 SEA HSR First private 1998 Privatisation of motorway Stade de ASF and Escota concessions France End of 19th century, early 20th 2013 Concessions in 2007-11 Acquisition of el
Slide 6: VINCI Concessions within the VINCI group
VINCI Concessions within the VINCI group Based on consolidated financial results as of 31.12.2014 Financials People Net financial Capital Revenue(1) EBITDA(2) Net income(3) Staff debt(4) employed(5) €5.8bn €3.8bn €1.1bn €19.9bn €26.5bn 13,000 15% 69% 61% 150% 87% 7% VINCI group VINCI group VINCI gro
Slide 7: 3 areas of expertise and 5 divisions
3 areas of expertise and 5 divisions 3 areas of expertise 5 divisions VINCI Autoroutes S. Morant VINCI Airports Development Program Operation N. Notebaert Management From 6 m to 3 y From 1 to 5 y Up to 50 y VINCI Highways Steering a multi- Steering the project’s Managing traffic, F. Selwan stage ten
Slide 8: VINCI Concessions strategic priorities
VINCI Concessions strategic priorities Brownfield projects: Greenfield Extend the Make the most Acquire core projects: maturity of of existing business Focus on the portfolio contracts companies with international high growth projects potential 8
Slide 9: Extend the maturity of the portfolio
Extend the maturity of the portfolio Remaining life(1) of the portfolio (number of years) 27 26 25 24 24 23 22 28 27 28 1 7 7 1 7 1 1 1 3 Extensions due to VINCI Airports development 27 26 25 24 Extensions due to VINCI Autoroutes 23 22 21 20 development and stimulus packages 19 18 Remaining life(1)
Slide 10: Make the most of existing contracts
Make the most of existing contracts Data for the ASF Group and Cofiroute intercity network (in € millions) 900 5,000 850 800 +10% 4,400 Revenue growth(1) Average costs structure 750 Operating expenses -11% 700 3,800 excluding taxes and Major repairs Taxes and levies and other levies Income tax 650 o
Slide 11: Main brownfield acquisitions since 2013
Main brownfield acquisitions since 2013 Country VINCI stake Maturity 2013 ANA Portugal 100% 50 years 2014 ADP France 8% ∞ 2016e Kansai Airports(1) Japan 40% 44 years (1) Basic agreement signed 11
Slide 12: €36bn work committed since 2007
€36bn work committed since 2007 Data at 100% in € billions €36bn €25bn Completed work €11bn From 2016 work committed from 2007 to 2015 onwards since 2007(1) Of which €6.4bn for HSR SEA (1) Initial and additional work arising from concessionaires. Existing portfolio + Strasbourg bypass (preferred bid
Slide 13: Focus on SEA HSR
Focus on SEA HSR Construction challenges Operational challenges 302 km of new line 18,000,000 38 km connecting line passengers expected 1,360 km of rail 500 engineering 50-year term concession structures built contract awarded by RFF (now SNCF 8,500 people involved Réseau) to LISEA(1) at peak 20 mon
Slide 14: A bullish infrastructure market
A bullish infrastructure market Data in US$ trillions Annual worldwide need for 2013-30 cumulated worldwide need for infrastructure: infrastructure US$57.3tr US$57.3tr of which more than 40% in the activities comprising the current portfolio of VINCI Concessions + 70% Routes Roads Energie Power Eau
Slide 15: 75% increase in global air traffic by 2034
75% increase in global air traffic by 2034 * Including Santiago Airport, excluding Kansai Airports Source: IATA, Annual Review 2015 and Air Passenger Forecasts October 2014 15
Slide 16: Concessions highlights: Presentation of VINCI Concessions
Concessions highlights Presentation of VINCI Concessions
Slide 17: Concession projects: 2 different approaches
Concession projects: 2 different approaches Greenfield projects Brownfield projects Developing new contracts Acquisition of existing contracts (M&A) Type of risk Availability payment Traffic risk Traffic risk Minority stake Majority stake Control Equity method (EM) Full consolidation (FC) Case-by-ca
Slide 18: VINCI Concessions in 3 areas of expertise
VINCI Concessions in 3 areas of expertise Development Program Management Operation From 6 m to 3 y From 1 to 5 y Up to 50 y Managing traffic, Steering a multi-stage Steering the project’s design maintenance and tender offer and construction partnership issues 17 offers submitted(1) / y €2 to 3bn ini
Slide 19: VINCI Concessions in 5 divisions
VINCI Concessions in 5 divisions VINCI share (1) 100% 74% 42% 33% 69% 26% Consolidation FC FC EM EM FC / EM EM method (2) VINCI Autoroutes VINCI Airports VINCI Highways VINCI Railways VINCI Stadium Other projects S. Morant N. Notebaert F. Selwan C. Pélissié du Rausas A. Boutelier - LISEA CSDF INDIGO
Slide 20: A growing internationalisation: 1990
A growing internationalisation: 1990 1990 France Existing portfolio as of 31.12.1990 20 Excluding park concessions 20
Slide 21: A growing internationalisation: 2006
A growing internationalisation: 2006 2006 Canada UK Germany United States France Portugal Greece Jamaica Cambodia Existing portfolio as of 31.12.2006 21 Excluding park concessions. 21
Slide 22: A growing internationalisation: 2015
A growing internationalisation: 2015 2015 Russia Canada Netherlands UK Belgium Germany United States Slovakia France Portugal Greece Jamaica Cambodia Existing portfolio as of 26.11.2015 Chile 22 Excluding park concessions 22
Slide 23: A growing internationalisation: 2015 and prospects
A growing internationalisation: 2015 and prospects 2015 – including prospects Russia Canada Netherlands UK Poland Japan Belgium Germany United States Slovakia Kazakhstan France Romania Portugal Greece Iran Turkey India Jamaica Cambodia Dominican Rep. Philippines Oman Columbia Brazil Existing portfol
Slide 24: €36bn work committed since 2007
€36bn work committed since 2007 Data at 100% in € billions €36bn work committed since 2007(1) e e e e e e (1) Initial and additional work arising from concessionaires. Existing portfolio + Strasbourg bypass (preferred bidder status). 24
Slide 25: Targeting long-term return
Targeting long-term return Illustrative evolution of the shareholder return (IRR) in greenfield concession projects Data for illustration purposes only Cumulative IRR Dividends Equity injections Payback 25
Slide 26: Concessions highlights: Portfolio - progress report
Concessions highlights Portfolio - progress report
Slide 27: VINCI Concessions Key financials
VINCI Concessions Key financials Consolidated data in € millions 2014 2015e Revenue(1) V. Autoroutes 4,743 V. Airports 717 Other divisions 104 = Total revenue excluding VINCI Park 5,564 VINCI Park 259 - Total revenue 5,823 EBITDA(2) margin 66% EBIT margin 42% Net income(3) 1,088 + ca
Slide 28: EBITDA margin: a various speed growth
EBITDA margin: a various speed growth EBITDA(1) as a % of consolidated revenue(2) 2010 2014 Dynamics VINCI 68.8% 71.3% Autoroutes Stabilisation at a high level (maturity) VINCI 41.9% 47.7% Airports Growth (1) Cash flow from operations before tax and financing costs (2) Excluding concession subsidiar
Slide 29: A dynamic net margin growth
A dynamic net margin growth Consolidated data in € millions, including VINCI Concessions’ structure and development costs 29
Slide 30: Key data by division
Key data by division VINCI Concessions VINCI Autoroutes VINCI Airports VINCI Highways VINCI Railways VINCI Stadium Other projects €5,564m €4,743m 2014 consolidated €717m €76m €23m €2m €3m revenue(1) (excluding VINCI Park) €15,850m(3) €12,441m €2,208m (3) €600m €307m €55m €239m (2) Equity committed 2
Slide 31: Portfolio highlights
Portofolio highlights 7 projects have been signed since November 2014: €3bn VINCI Airports 23 Initial work (100%) • International Airport, Santiago (Chile) years • Toulon Hyères International Airport (France) >€190m • 12-year renewal for Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Average Equity committed(2) maturity
Slide 32: Focus on VINCI Autoroutes: Business highlights
Focus on VINCI Autoroutes Business highlights
Slide 33: Traffic and toll revenue – 9M 2015
Traffic and toll revenue – 9M 2015 2015/2014 change – Nine months to 30 September Of which VINCI At 30 September 2015 Autoroutes ASF ESCOTA COFIROUTE Traffic +2.9% +3.0% +2.5% +2.5% LV +2.8% +3.0% +2.5% +2.6% HV +3.1% +3.6% +2.4% +2.0% Other impacts +0.1% +0.3% -0.4% +0.5% Toll revenue +3.0% +3.3% +
Slide 34: Traffic - a confirmed upturn
Traffic - a confirmed upturn Change in traffic over 12 trailing months (number of km travelled) Change since Q4 2007 as of Q3 2015 115 Light vehicles + 10.8% 110 Total traffic 105 + 8.1% 100 95 Heavy vehicles - 7.0% 90 85 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Slide 35: Traffic – drivers
Traffic – drivers 1 2 2008-2012 population evolution 3 Evolution LV traffic vs fuel prices France 1• Regional GDP growth 2• Demographic growth 3• Fuel price 4• Business climate 5 Diffusion in France of a 5% increase of Spanish HV traffic Spain (~ 30% of VINCI Autoroutes Heavy Vehicles traffic) 4
Slide 36: EBITDA margin: a steady growth
EBITDA margin: a steady growth Revenue and EBITDA margin (in € billions): CAGR 2006- 2014 • Revenues: +3.6% 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.9 • EBITDA(1): + 4.6% 3.6 71.3% 69.5% 70.3% 68.8% 69.3% 67.3% 68.5% 66.1% 66.9% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (1) Cash flow from operations before
Slide 37: Increase in automation
Increase in automation Breakdown of transactions by payment mode at VINCI Autoroutes level Toll plaza 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 modernisation Transactions (in millions) 729.2 756.9 752.5 766.2 786.6 800.7 796.0 806.9 825.0 Change 3.6% 3.8% -0.6% 1.8% 2.7% 1.8% -0.6% 1.4% 2.2% prog
Slide 38: Organisational downsizing
Organisational downsizing VINCI Autoroutes – Millions of km travelled per employee (intercity network) Organisation overhaul and job transformation • Development of remote 7.1 assistance and remote operation 6.6 6.3 6.3 • Internal job mobility 6.1 (e.g. all employees on 5.8 the new Lyon–Balbigny 5.4
Slide 39: Operational evolution (1/2)
Operational evolution (1/2) Increase anti-fraud effort Decline in number of vehicles forcing their way through the toll Strengthening of mechanisms to combat bank card fraud (reduction barriers (≈ -60% for ASF during the 2012-2014 period) by half of card fraud fraud for ASF during the 2012-2014
Slide 40: Operational evolution (2/2)
Operational evolution (2/2) Harmonisation and optimisation of operations (≈-11% of operating expenses since 2010) Optimisation of external expenses ( ≈ -30% in respect of ASF’s external purchases over the past five years: a saving of €16m) Anticipation and management of changes in workforce (man
Slide 41: Sustainable CAPEX for a constant network upgrade
Sustainable CAPEX for a constant network upgrade Data in € millions, CAPEX forecast including 2015 Stimulus Package 2015 On-going investments Relief motorway for the A9 at Montpellier (ASF) Widening of existing sections Extension of trucks resting areas Deployment of free flow lanes on toll
Slide 42: Focus on VINCI Autoroutes: Stimulus package
Focus on VINCI Autoroutes Stimulus package
Slide 43: Coming out of the crisis: negotiations
Coming out of the crisis Early 2010: initiating studies and proposals from the French highway concession companies (SCAs) - DGITM invitation to negotiate a stimulus plan (investments vs contract extensions) Negotiations - Discussions on the scope of additional investments, economic assumptions and f
Slide 44: New investments
New investments VINCI Autoroutes stimulus package €2bn ASF €0.8bn COFIROUTE €0.6bn ESCOTA €0.6bn 44
Slide 45: Financing through extended maturity (1/2)
Financing through extended maturity (1/2) A €2 billion investment programme financed by the extension of VINCI Autoroutes’ concession contracts Extension of concession contracts 31 December 2033 30 April 2036 ASF ● €803m programme (07/2012 value) ● End of concession in April 2036 (+2 years 31 Decemb
Slide 46: Financing through extended maturity (2/2)
Financing through extended maturity (2/2) Data for all VINCI Autoroutes French highway concessions Long-term assumptions 2010 Green Stimulus Plan 2015 Stimulus Plan CPI 1.8% per year 1.8% per year Traffic 0.7% per year 0.7% per year Stimulus Plans: Specific profile of the impact on the free cash flo
Slide 47: Financial compensation (1/2)
Financial compensation (1/2) By a decree on 28 May 2013, the government increased by 50% the land tax paid by motorway companies (~+€52m/year for VINCI Autoroutes) By a decision on 27 January 2015, the government froze the toll increases included in concession contracts for application on 1 February
Slide 48: Financial compensation (2/2)
Financial compensation (2/2) ASF Escota Cofiroute excl. A86 Duplex End of concession 2036 2032 2034 Current master plans 2012-2016 2012-2016 N/A 2016 85% x i + 1.58% 85% x i + 1.13% 70% x i + 0.78% applied on 1 February 2016 2017 * 70% x i + 0.945% 70% x i + 0.34% 70% x i + 0.32% 2018 * 70% x i + 0.
Slide 49: Other elements from the agreement
Other elements from the agreement Exceptional voluntary contribution paid by the motorway concession companies to AFITF (French transport infrastructure financing agency) for 20 years in the amount of €60m a year (indexed to inflation), i.e. €33.9m for VINCI Autoroutes (i.e. 56.5% of the total amoun
Slide 50: Seize the opportunity
Seize the opportunity Launch as many works projects as possible and as quickly as possible to demonstrate that the agreement does indeed boost business: secure the numerous administrative permits; award contracts with a tender threshold reduced to €500K Minimize financial impact of initial schedule
Slide 51: Focus on VINCI Airports: Business highlights
Focus on VINCI Airports Business highlights
Slide 52: VINCI Airports is a major international player
VINCI Airports is a major international player 11 27 airports (1) 10 airports in airports in France >100(1) million passengers managed Portugal 2 airports in 100 regular airlines in 2015e Japan €800m consolidated revenue 1 airport in in 2015e Chile 3 airports in Cambodia >9,200(1) employees managed
Slide 53: VINCI Airports Key financials
VINCI Airports Key financials Consolidated data in € millions 2014 2015e Passenger traffic(1) (in mPax) 46.8 Revenue(2) 717 Portugal 510 Cambodia 103 France 104 EBITDA(3) 342 EBITDA(3) margin 47.7% EBIT 231 EBIT margin 32.2% (1) Passenger traffic of fully consolidated entities onl
Slide 54: Traffic: continued high growth
Traffic: continued high growth Passenger traffic (in mPax). Excluding ADP 69 Including Santiago Pax traffic growth: (yoy, cumulated at 10/31/2015) Santiag 47 (1) 43 VINCI Airports + 10.3% Portugal + 10.8% +9.5% Slight acceleration vs. 2014 Cambodia + 14.4% 10 9.1% growth France (1) + 3.9%
Slide 55: ANA: flagship platform with high potential for development
ANA: flagship platform with high potential for development ANA 2015e full year: 10M 2015 vs 10M 2014: 10 slight acceleration in traffic growth relative to 2014 ANA is growing at 10.8%, driven by Lisbon Airport airports ANA Passenger traffic (in mPax) Lisbon +10.8% Porto 2014 33.9 30.6 Faro
Slide 56: ANA: outlook update
ANA: outlook update What we forecasted Where we stand today back in Sept. 2013 +2% to +3% Traffic CAGR 2012-2015e: 8.5% 2012-2022 CAGR Non-aeronautical > 5% CAGR 2012-2015e: 9.5% revenue 2012-2022 CAGR EBITDA margin ~50% in 2018 51.1% in 2014, still growing c. €50m / year Forecast confirmed Capex 20
Slide 57: Cambodia: a success story
Cambodia: a success story Strong development, self-financed 3 airports Dynamic emerging markets 6.5 mPax Strong growth in traffic in 2015e Phnom Penh Siem Reap Passenger ~ 6.5 traffic (mPax) 6 Sihanoukville 70,000 4 3.3 x2 in 5 years ATMs(1) in 2015e 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e EBIT
Slide 58: France: a network of 11 regional airports
France: a network of 11 regional airports 2 types of assets with different 11 contractual frameworks and financial profiles airports Concession: Aéroports du Grand Ouest - Nantes/ Saint-Nazaire 6.7 mPax Nantes in 2015e Rennes 4.4 mPax in 2015e Clermont Traffic growth: > 4% in 2015e Grenobl
Slide 59: Focus on Santiago Airport
Focus on Santiago Airport SCOPE OF CONCESSION CONTRACT AIRPORT LOCATION 1 Renovation of the existing facilities airport Financing, design and construction of a new terminal: capacity increased to 30 mPax a year ~17 mPax Operation of all infrastructure: existing in 2015e and future terminals, c
Slide 60: Kansai and Osaka Airports
Kansai and Osaka Airports ! Basic agreement signed SCOPE OF BID AIRPORTS LOCATION 2 Consortium: VINCI Airports: 40% ; Orix: 40%, airports minority shareholder companies from the Kansai region: 20% Sizeable asset with strong operating capabilities 35 mPax Large airports platform: Kansai airport: in
Slide 61: A dynamic aviation marketing
A dynamic aviation marketing 78 routes opened in 2015 (100 in 2014) New routes 2015-16(1) 2015 new airlines Portugal 49 8 Cambodia 6 6 France 23 6 TOTAL 78 20 (1) Routes actually opened in 2015 or with opening planned in Winter season 2015-16 61
Slide 62: Aviation marketing: 2015 main achievements
Aviation marketing: 2015 main achievements 1 New easyJet operational base in Porto (2 aircrafts) providing 5 new destinations and 2 new services on existing routes. 2 Porto will get close to 8 Million passengers this year. The limit might be passed. Lisbon for the first time will pass over the 20 Mi
Slide 63: Continued strong growth in non aeronautical activities
Continued strong growth in non aeronautical activities ANA 2015 highlights Retail, Food and Beverage: 41 shops opened in 2015 • Opening of Lisbon Food Court • Opening of Porto walkthrough duty Closure of curbsides • Done in Faro and Porto • Lisbon: expected to close in July 2016 Rental car companies
Slide 64: Update on new Lisbon Airport (NLA)
Update on new Lisbon Airport (NLA) The 20mPax mark will be reached in 2015 at Lisbon Airport A brand new airport (NLA) and the closure of the existing Lisbon airport Initial estimate: 11 years There is two Option 4-year period for Adjusted regulatory options in the 1 discussion with framework for
Slide 65: Focus on VINCI Airports: Upcoming challenges
Focus on VINCI Airports Upcoming challenges
Slide 66: VINCI Airports development approach (1/2)
VINCI Airports development approach (1/2) VINCI Airports is looking for: Long term Value creation Strong position maturities potential in governance …in a wide array of geographies 66
Slide 67: VINCI Airports development approach (2/2)
VINCI Airports development approach (2/2) VINCI Airports is able to position on different types of projects, all over the world from small platforms to large hub airports Optimisation Growth Greenfield Seeds Toulon, Kansai Airports(1) Santiago Airport Santiago Airport (existing facility) (new termin
Slide 68: Conclusion and closing remarks
Conclusion and closing remarks
Slide 69: VINCI Concessions
VINCI CONCESSIONS
Slide 70: Appendices
VINCI CONCESSIONS Appendices
Slide 71: Infrastructures conceded or operated in PPPs
Infrastructures conceded or operated in PPPs End of VINCI Consoli- Country Name Description Traffic risk concession share dation* VINCI Airports Cambodia Phnom Penh Concession Siem Reap Concession 2040 70% Yes FC Sihanoukville Concession France Quimper Cornouaille DSP (2014: 100 KPax) 2016 100% Yes
Slide 72: Infrastructures conceded or operated in PPPs
Infrastructures conceded or operated in PPPs End of Consoli- Country Type Name Description VINCI share Traffic risk concession dation* Road infrastructure (excluding VINCI Autoroutes French network and Toll collection systems) Canada Highway Fredericton-Moncton expressway 195 km 2028 25% no EM Germa
Slide 73: Infrastructures conceded or operated in PPPs
Infrastructures conceded or operated in PPPs End of Consoli- Country Type Name Description VINCI share Traffic risk concession dation* Rail infrastructure France Rail RhônExpress 23 km light rail system, Lyon 2038 35% yes EM Belgium Tunnel Liefkenshoek, Antwerp Rail tunnel under the Escaut 2050 28%
Slide 74: Conceded or PPP infrastructure under construction
Conceded or PPP infrastructure under construction End of Consoli- Country Type Name Description VINCI share Traffic risk concession dation* France SEA Tours-Bordeaux high-speed Rail 340 km of high-speed rail line 2061 33.4% yes EM line Ground-train communication system on Rail GSM-Rail 2025 30% no E
Slide 75: Projects by area of expertise and by division
Projects by area of expertise and by division VINCI Autoroutes VINCI Airports VINCI Highways VINCI Railways VINCI Stadium Other projects Development A355 Kansai Airports(1) Preferred bidder (Strasbourg bypass) MSP 7-8 Regina Bypass HSR SEA Highways in Greece Programme management Synerail BAMEO Ohio
Slide 76: Analysis of equity investment in concessions
Analysis of equity investment in concessions Data in € millions, VINCI share Equity to be Key contributors by Total Equity Equity invested invested in 2016 division Committed(1) at 31.12.15 and onwards ASF + Escota 10,570 10,570 - Equity Equity to be Total Equity Cofiroute 1,705 1,705 - invested inv
Slide 77: Average cost of future debt repayment
Average cost of future debt(1) repayment Data in € millions, VINCI share 3 000 2 500 2 000 Other concessions Arcour 1 500 VINCI Cofiroute 1 000 ASF 500 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nominal amount 1,822 2,048 2,559 1,564 1,558 1,466 in € millions Average rate 3.66% 3.39% 4.08% 4.42% 1.61% 2.96% (1
Slide 78: Focus on concession contracts signed in 2015
Focus on concession contracts signed in 2015 Project start date: Airports = start of operation, Stadium and Highways = financial close End of End of VINCI Airports concession VINCI Highways concession Renewed Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport Moscow-St Petersburg motorway, Sect. 7-8 from • Renewed f