Schroders PLC · LSE:SDR
Schroders — ImmoInvest-Forum 2008 für institutionelle Anleger
52 slides from Schroders's conference presentation, November 2008
Slide 1: ImmoInvest-Forum 2008 für institutionelle Anleger
ImmoInvest-Forum 2008 für institutionelle Anleger
Slide 2: How to invest in Global Real Estate
How to invest in Global Real Estate Mark Callender Head of International Property Research Schroders London
Slide 3: UK
UK 8% Schroders
Slide 4: Recessions compared
Recessions compared UK GDP forecast to fall 3% peak to trough 103 Forecast 2008 - 2010 102 2007 - 2008 1989 - 1992 1989 / 2007 = 100 101 100 99 1990 / 2008 1989 / 2007 1991 / 2009 98 1992 / 2010 Source: ONS, Schroders, November 2008
Slide 5: Limited new supply in most locations
Limited new supply in most locations Retail and office completions Forecast 35 30 completions millions sq ft 25 Other office locations 20 Central London offices 15 Town centre retail Out of town retail 10 5 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: PMA, Schroder
Slide 6: Fall not as steep as early 1990s
Fall not as steep as early 1990s Rental values in nominal terms Forecast 2008 - 2013 105 100 1989-1995 95 1989 / 2007 = 100 2007-2013 90 85 80 75 70 1989 / 2007 1990 / 2008 1991 / 2009 1995 / 2013 1994 / 2012 1992 / 2010 1993 / 2011 Source: IPD, PMA, Schroders, November 2008
Slide 7: How secure is property lending going forward?
How secure is property lending going forward? 120 0 percent cumulative decline by end 2010 100 -5 -10 80 -15 60 Original Value of Property £ billion -20 40 Bank Debt -25 Value of Property at end-2010 20 -30 Surplus / Deficit 0 Fall in Value by end-2010 -35 -20 -40 -40 -45 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ye
Slide 8: The rise in yields should moderate in 2009
The rise in yields should moderate in 2009 Central scenario Forecast 11 20 10 15 percent impact on capital values 9 10 8 5 yield percent 7 0 Yield Impact 6 -5 Initial Yield 5 -10 Equivalent Yield 4 -15 3 -20 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: IPD, PMA, Schroders
Slide 9: Past the worst?
Past the worst? All property performance Forecast 40% 30% Income return 20% Rental value growth Yield impact 10% Total return 0 -10% -20% -30% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1986 1988 1992 1994 2008 2010 2012 1990 Source: IPD, PMA, Schroders, November 2008
Slide 10: Europe ex-UK
Europe ex-UK 8% Schroders
Slide 11: Office floorspace
Office floorspace Growth in Stock, End 2007 End 2010 Warsaw Prague Budapest Dublin Barcelona Madrid Lisbon Lyon Dusseldorf Helsinki Cologne Brussels Vienna Amsterdam Marseille Hamburg Milan Lille Paris Rotterdam Copenhagen Munich Frankfurt Stockholm Stuttgart Berlin Rome 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 percen
Slide 12: Forecast GDP growth in 2009
Forecast GDP growth in 2009 All countries see a sharp slowdown Nordics less affected 3 2.5 France Germany 2 Italy 1.5 Spain gdp growth percent Sweden 1 UK 0.5 Finland 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 November 08 January 08 February 08 March 08 May 08 June 08 July 08 September 08 October 08 April 08 August 08 Source:
Slide 13: Office rental values
Office rental values No recovery until 2012 8 Frankfurt Geneva 6 Madrid Munich percent change in rental values 4 Paris: CBD Stockholm 2 Budapest 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Schroders. Note. Data refer to average rents, not prime rents.
Slide 14: Office prime yields
Office prime yields End 2007 End 2009 Ranked by Increase Budapest Dublin Madrid Barcelona La Défense Lille Marseille Lyon Lisbon Rotterdam Warsaw Helsinki Stuttgart Paris: CBD End 2007 Copenhagen End 2008 Oslo Cologne End 2009 Brussels Berlin Rome Stockholm Prague Dusseldorf Amsterdam Hamburg Frankf
Slide 15: Office total returns
Office total returns Ranked by Returns End 2010 End 2012 Oslo Lille Marseille Warsaw Prague Brussels Hamburg Frankfurt Stuttgart Helsinki Cologne Lyon Munich La Défense Paris: CBD Dusseldorf End 2010 - End 2012 Rotterdam Berlin End 2008 - End 2010 Copenhagen Lisbon Milan Stockholm Barcelona Amsterda
Slide 16: Household indebtedness
Household indebtedness 60 Netherlands 50 Ireland change in ratio 1997-2006 40 Spain Denmark UK 30 Greece Portugal Switzerland 20 Iceland Finland Norway France 10 Italy Sweden Belgium Germany 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 residential mortgage debt as % of GDP 2006 Source: European Mortgage Federation, 2007
Slide 17: Shopping centre total return
Shopping centre total return End 2008 end 2012 ranked by total returns Portugal Sweden Netherlands France End 2010 - End 2012 Germany End 2008 - End 2010 Italy Spain Ireland -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 total return percent per year Source: Schroders. Note. Data cover End 2008 to End 2012
Slide 18: Pan-European retailers drive demand for larger warehouses
Pan-European retailers drive demand for larger warehouses Logistics Esprit Geox Inditex (Zara) Media-Saturn like-for-like H&M Camaïeu additional stores DSGI Douglas Bijou Brigitte -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Sales growth in H1 08 or FY 07/08 Source: Company reports, Schroders.
Slide 19: Asia
Asia 8% Schroders
Slide 20: Asia property investment market
Asia property investment market Total value of $2.9 trillion end 2007 India Other 1% 5% Singapore Hong Kong 2% 5% South Korea 6% Japan 45% Australia 10% China 26% Source: DTZ Money Into Property, 2008
Slide 21: Slowdown, but not recession
Slowdown, but not recession GDP growth Forecast GDP % growth 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2007 2008 2009 China Japan South Korea India Thailand Malaysia Philippines Source: Schroders, November 2008
Slide 22: China urbanisation
China urbanisation Not just Beijing and Shanghai The number of cities with a population of over 2 million will rise from 26 in 2006 to 47 in 2020 Million people Fastest Growing Cities in China 1200 Forecast Million people Forecast Forecast 1000 Population 2006 Population 2020 Increase Beihai 1.4 5.8
Slide 23: Difficulties of doing business
Difficulties of doing business Burden of government regulation Effectiveness in law making Pervasiveness of illegal donations to political parites Property rights Quality of information regarding changes in legislation 0 25 50 75 100 125 bestbest ranking of 125 countries worst India China Source: Wo
Slide 24: Japan property re-pricing
Japan property re-pricing Estimated property yields 6.5 Office 6.0 Residential Retail 5.5 5.0 percent yield 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 avr.05 janv.06 avr.06 janv.07 avr.07 janv.08 avr.08 juil.05 oct.05 juil.06 oct.06 juil.07 oct.07 juil.08 Source: STB Research Institute, November 2008
Slide 25: Tokyo office market
Tokyo office market Solid fundamentals 12 20 15 10 10 8 5 percent of total stock rental growth percent 0 6 Net take-up % of stock New supply % of stock -5 Vacancy rate 4 -10 Average rental growth (r.h. axis) 2 -15 -20 0 -25 -2 -30 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Slide 26: USA
USA 8% Schroders
Slide 27: Economic forecasts
Economic forecasts 3.5 3.0 2.5 Change in GDP percent 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 USA Japan UK Eurozone Source: Schroders, November 2008
Slide 28: CMBS market issuance
CMBS market issuance $ billion 250 200 USA UK 150 Europe ex-UK 100 Japan Rest of World 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD Source: Commercial Mortgage Securities Association, September 2008
Slide 29: USA property total returns by sector
USA property total returns by sector 20 Apartment 15 Warehouse Office 10 Retail percent total return 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: PPR, Schroders, November 2008.
Slide 30: Office total returns
Office total returns Ranked by Returns End 2008 End 2012 Oklahoma City Columbus New Orleans St. Louis Kansas City Cincinnati Indianapolis Denver Seattle San Jose Los Angeles Dallas San Francisco Chicago Miami Atlanta Washington Boston New York 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Total return percent per year Source:
Slide 31: Summary
Summary We believe the UK market will start to recover in 2010. Europe ex-UK should also perform well from 2010 onwards except Spain and eastern Europe. USA market will lag behind Europe. Re-financing CMBS poses a major challenge. Asia ex-Japan has the brightest prospects, but carries the greatest r
Slide 32: Appendix
Appendix 8% Schroders
Slide 33: The global property investment market
The global property investment market Three regions make up the market Total value of $10.1 trillion end-2007 Europe ex. UK: 25% N. America: 40% UK: 7% Japan: 13% Asia ex. Japan: 16% Source: DTZ Money Into Property, 2008
Slide 34: European office stock
European office stock End 2007 Paris Berlin London Munich Frankfurt Brussels Hamburg Stockholm Vienna Copenhagen Helsinki Madrid Rome Dusseldorf Milan Amsterdam Stuttgart Cologne Lyon Barcelona Rotterdam Manchester Marseille Lille Dublin Warsaw Lisbon Athens Birmingham Budapest Edinburgh Prague 0 3
Slide 35: Asia office stock
Asia office stock End 2007 Tokyo Beijing Hong Kong Seoul Kuala Lumpur Sydney Shanghai Melbourne Singapore Jakarta Guangzhou Bangkok Tianjin Taipei Chengdu 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Million square metres Source: CBRE. Stock figures exclude outer suburbs and include investment and owner-occupied property.
Slide 36: USA office stock
USA office stock End 2007 Washington New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Atlanta Boston Philadelphia Detroit New Jersey Phoenix Minneapolis Denver Orange County, CA Seattle San Diego San Francisco Baltimore East Bay, CA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Million square metres Source: Property and P
Slide 37: ImmoInvest-Forum 2008 für institutionelle Anleger
ImmoInvest-Forum 2008 für institutionelle Anleger
Slide 38: Roger Hennig
Roger Hennig Head of Property Switzerland Schroders Zurich
Slide 39: Aktuelle Marktsituation
Aktuelle Marktsituation Keine bevorstehende Immobilienkrise in der Schweiz Preise immer noch stabil Gewisse Zurückhaltung auf dem Transaktionsmarkt feststellbar Qualitätsimmobilien weiter gefragt, für Subprime Immobilien wird Marktumfeld schwieriger Turbulenzen auf Finanzmärkten beeinflusst die Perf
Slide 40: Konjunkturelle Folgen der globalen Finanzkrise
Konjunkturelle Folgen der globalen Finanzkrise Grosse Preiskorrekturen sind nicht zu erwarten, Gründe dafür sind: In den letzten Jahren kam es zu keinen spekulativen Preisexzessen Die Fremdfinanzierungen von Schweizer Immobilieninvestoren sind vergleichsweise moderat Keine Kredit-Klemme in der Schwe
Slide 41: Entwicklung von Immobilien im Vergleich
Entwicklung von Immobilien im Vergleich Per 31. Oktober 2008 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2004 2006 2007 2005 2000 2001 2003 2002 2008 CHF Obligationen Immobilienfonds (WUPIX-F) Swiss Performance Index Immobilien-AG (WUPIX-A)
Slide 42: Performance Total Return (per 19.11.2008)
Performance Total Return (per 19.11.2008) Performance seit Jahresanfang Performance 5 Jahre 10% 14% Fonds AG AG 5% 12% 0% 10% -5% Fonds 8% -10% 6% -15% 4% -20% 2% -25% 0% -30% -2% -35% -4% -40% -45% -6% -50% -8% >60% Geschäftsimmobilien
Slide 43: Agio / Disagio (per 19.11.2008)
Agio / Disagio (per 19.11.2008) Aktuell Entwicklung 25% 36% 20% 32% 15% Fonds AG 28% 10% 24% 5% 20% 0% 16% -5% 12% -10% 8% -15% 4% -20% 0% -25% -4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -30% -8% -35% -12% -40% -16% -45% -20% -50% -24% -55% Immobilienfonds >60% Geschäftsimmobilien Immobilien-A
Slide 44: Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE) Aktuell Entwicklung 16% 9% 14% 8% 12% AG 7% 6% 10% Fonds 5% 8% 4% 6% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Immobilienfonds >60% Geschäftsimmobilien Immobilien-AG Rendite 10yr Benchmark Eidgn.
Slide 45: Geschäftsimmobilien versus Wohnimmobilien
Geschäftsimmobilien versus Wohnimmobilien Konjunktursensitivität aber + Höhere Rendite + Tiefere Bewirtschaftungskosten + Langfristige Mietverträge + Inflationsschutz durch Indexierung Mietverträge + Weniger restriktive Mietrechtsbestimmungen
Slide 46: Preisentwicklung (Index 1970=100)
Preisentwicklung (Index 1970=100) Wohnbereich Geschäftsbereich
Slide 47: Rentabilität
Rentabilität Bewirtschaftungskosten in % der Gesamterträge 35% 30% Fonds AG 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% >60% Geschäftsimmobilien
Slide 48: Portfoliomanagement im aktuellen Umfeld
Portfoliomanagement im aktuellen Umfeld Fokus auf: Ertragsstarke Geschäftsimmobilen an attraktiven Standorten Tiefes Risikoprofil: Laufzeitenstruktur und Bonität der Mieter Qualitatives Wachstum Geografische Diversifikation der Anlagen Aktives Asset Management
Slide 49: Immobilieninvestoren entdecken die Nachhaltigkeit
Immobilieninvestoren entdecken die Nachhaltigkeit Ökologie wird immer mehr zu einer Frage der Ökonomie Erstellungskosten zwischen 3% und 5% höher, aber enormes Einsparungspotential bei den Energiekosten Komfortsteigerung und tiefere Energiekosten rechtfertigen höheren Mietzins Rund 40% der neuen Bau
Slide 50: Beispiele von Minergie-Standard im Schroder ImmoPLUS
Beispiele von Minergie-Standard im Schroder ImmoPLUS 21 % der Liegenschaften im SRIP entsprechen dem Minergie-Standard Bürogebäude Genf Bürogebäude St. Gallen Geschäftsliegenschaft Fribourg Geschäftsliegenschaft St. Gallen
Slide 51: Risk warning - forecasts
Risk warning - forecasts In providing this information to you, we would draw your attention to the following: The forecast is the result of statistical modelling, based on a number of assumptions, that are not likely to reflect actual future events and should be seen as an objective only. The assump
Slide 52: Risk warning
Risk warning This presentation is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any asset or financial instrument. This material is not intended to provide, and sh
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