Agl Energy Limited · ASX:AGL
Agl Energy — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation
44 slides from Agl Energy's earnings presentation, Aug 14, 2024
Slide 1: ASX & Media Release
AGL Energy Limited Locked Bag 3013 Level 24, 200 George St T: +61 2 9921 2999 ABN: 74 115 061 375 Australia Square NSW 1215 Sydney NSW 2000 F: +61 2 9921 2552 Australia Australia www.agl.com.au ASX & Media Release 2025 Half-Year Results Presentation 12 February 2025 Attached is AGL Energy Limited’s
Slide 2: FY25 Half-Year Results
FY25 Half-Year Results 12 February 2025 1
Slide 3: Agenda: results highlights, strategy, financials, guidance, Q&A
1 Results highlights and business update Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO 4 Guidance Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO Strategy execution and energy market 2 transition 5 Q&A Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO 3 Financial and operational overview Gary Brown – Chief Financial Off
Slide 4: Targeting FIDs for 1.4 GW of grid-scale battery projects
Targeting Final Investment Decisions for 1.4 GW of grid-scale battery projects over the next 12-18 months • Strong earnings result in line with expectations • Increased earnings and value captured from flexibility in the generation portfolio, including strong battery portfolio RESULTS performance SU
Slide 5: Results summary
• Underlying EBITDA down 1% to $1,068 million; Underlying NPAT down 7% to $373 million • Underlying EBITDA broadly flat on prior corresponding period due to increased earnings and value captured from flexibility in the portfolio, offset by Consumer customer margin compression and increased operating
Slide 6: Safety, Customers, People
Safety Customers People Total Injury Frequency Customer Satisfaction Employee engagement Rate (TIFR)1 (per million (CSAT)2 score hours worked) 72% 72%3 80.5 80.1 80.6 67% 79.8 3.5 57% 2.8 2.8 2.1 +3 FY22 FY23 FY24 1H25 FY22 FY23 FY24 1H25 FY22 FY23 FY24 Nov-24 1) Rolling number for 1 January to 31 D
Slide 7: Customer support initiatives
$75m $65m in direct financial 410k customers proactively 23,500 Staying Connected support including bill engaged to offer better customers offered payment 1 credits, debt relief and plans, check concessions, matching to assist with LOWERING payment matching add direct debit and apply ongoing energy
Slide 8: FY27 strategic targets
Customer NPS leadership Operational performance4 Equivalent FY27: FY27: Availability 1H25: +3 (Strategic NPS) 1H25: 78.5% +20 88% Factor (EAF) New renewable and firming capacity Digital only customers in development, contracted or in delivery5,6 FY27: FY27: 1H25: 57.3% 60% 1H25: +1,178 MW +2.1 GW [6
Slide 9: Strategy execution and energy market transition
Strategy execution and energy market transition Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO Liddell battery (under construction), New South Wales [DAMIEN NICKS] I’ll now spend a few minutes talking to the transition of AGL and how we continue to execute on our strategy, before handing over to Gary. 8
Slide 10: Powering Australian Life
Powering Australian Life Connecting every Transitioning our customer to a energy portfolio sustainable future Ambition to add 12 GW of Helping our customers new renewable generation and decarbonise the way they firming by the end of 2035, and live, move and work We will enable this transformation se
Slide 11: Customer Markets transform
LIVE Leading energy brand One of Australia’s largest Large customer portfolio providing demand side flexibility portfolios economies of scale #1 market share in commercial solar2 High value multiservice portfolio Award winning ElectrifyNow platform (Energy, Telco, Netflix)1 AGL EV services growth ou
Slide 12: Retail Transformation benefits
Retail Transformation is already ... and we’re rolling out our next ... to deliver long term efficiencies and delivering benefits phase of the program unlock material financial benefits1 New customer and agent Targeting 100k customers Sustainable pre-tax savings of experience through successful serv
Slide 13: Electrification and electricity demand growth
We are on the trajectory to see electricity demand The electricity market will continue to see almost double by 20501 (TWh) demand tailwinds and behavioural shifts 2050 electricity grid demand will be driven by electrification of +90% homes and businesses, EV uptake, increased demand from data centr
Slide 14: EV services growth
AGL Residential EV service plans growth outstripping growth We are capturing EV load, which is projected to of EVs on the road1 account for around 4% of total demand by 2030 2 100% • ~26k EV Energy plan customers, 38% new to AGL 90% • Launched EV Night Saver plan, which has seen up to 44% of 80% EVs
Slide 15: Market volatility and overnight prices
Investment in flexibility benefitting from Overnight prices benefitting existing legacy fleet, trend increasing market volatility will continue as solar penetration increases Daily difference between lowest and highest priced 2 hours Average of overnight prices (10pm – 7am) (monthly average actuals,
Slide 16: Flexible fleet capacity and thermal availability
Flexible fleet capacity 1 is 7.6 GW with Our investment in our thermal 2 assets has improved additional 1.4 GW of targeted FID’s in FY25/26 availability over time despite a drop in 1HY25 (Reflecting the major outage cycles varying from year to year) Flexible fleet capacity by asset (MW) Sustaining T
Slide 17: Development pipeline
PROJECT TYPE STATUS CAPACITY/DURATION • The rapid growth in size and maturity of IN OPERATION: 300 MW AGL’s development options has laid a solid Torrens Island Battery (SA) Firming In operation 250 MW / 1 hr foundation for AGL’s portfolio transition Broken Hill Battery (NSW) Firming In operation 50
Slide 18: Targeting FID on 1 GW of battery projects in CY25
Targeting FID on 1 GW of battery projects in CY25 • The projects are expected to deliver post tax project returns of between 7 and 11%1 • The projects are expected to be funded on balance sheet, with AGL’s cashflows, strong liquidity and debt headroom to provide the necessary capital, noting that ea
Slide 19: Liddell battery construction update
250 MW expected to be operational in early 2026; remaining 250 MW expected by April 2026 500 MW / 1,000 MWh Grid-forming battery with a 20-year asset life. Fluence is the EPC provider. Commencement of operations expected in early 2026 ~30% complete with 1,055 battery cubes on site. Next milestone is
Slide 20: Coal and gas contracting
Re-contracting to ensure security of supply and management of risk Coal contracting (Bayswater): Gas contracting: • Current Wilpinjong contract covers ~75% of Bayswater demand • Gas portfolio is well balanced to 2027 when QGC supply contract for FY25; remainder supplied by stockpile and a mix of lon
Slide 21: Financial and operational overview
Financial and operational overview Gary Brown – Chief Financial Officer [GARY BROWN] Thank you, Damien and good morning, everyone. 20
Slide 22: Financial results summary
STATUTORY NET PROFIT AFTER TAX: Small decrease in Underlying Profit as increased earnings from fleet flexibility more than offset by Consumer customer UNDERLYING PROFIT AFTER TAX: $97m margin compression and increased D&A due to increased investment in the fleet DIVIDENDS (FULLY FRANKED) $373m down
Slide 23: Underlying Profit after tax bridge
Underlying Profit after tax ($m) Customer Markets EBITDA Integrated Energy EBITDA Group-wide $(32)m decrease $53m increase 17 75 (6) (8) (16) (9) 399 (9) 390 (15) 9 16 (8) 6 23 373 (30) (54) (17) 1H24 Closures 1H24 Consumer Consumer Large C&IBusiness, and Other Electricity prices Batteries T&O Gas G
Slide 24: Operating costs
Operating costs excluding depreciation and amortisation ($m) Flat Acquisitions 60 13 (41) 6 1,800 (11) 19 1,787 1,787 (17) (16) FY24 CPI Productivity & Net Bad Channels Closures & Plant Other FY25 Opex Firm Power FY25 Actual Other benefits Debt Expense & Marketing divestments Availability Normalised
Slide 25: Customer Markets performance
Margin compression in a Customer growth across all services Outperformance in a competitive market competitive environment Customer services (‘000) 600 200 Churn (%) Consumer customer gross margin 4,482 4,528 180 63 500 492 4,271 44 160 4,215 22.1% 344 357 21.4% 428 292 19.5% 140 246 18.9% 400 359 1
Slide 26: Integrated Energy performance
Thermal fleet capturing higher prices Strong volatility captured by thermal Asset fleet generation during the night fleet availability during price events volumes were flat THERMAL FLEET COMMERCIAL AVAILABILITY1 VOLATILITY CAPTURED2 GENERATION VOLUMES 78.0% 5.8pp vs 1H24 70.6% 11.2pp vs 1H24 15.9 TW
Slide 27: Flexible asset fleet capturing value
AGL’s assets attracted a premium to AGL’s growth strategy focused on AGL’s battery investments are delivering the time weighted market price assets that capture volatility performance with further investment planned Portfolio realised price / Average market price (%) Portfolio realised price / Avera
Slide 28: Historic and forecast capital expenditure
Historic and forecast capital expenditure ($m) Growth Capital Expenditure 800 Distributed Energy Solutions and Electrification • Consistent with our strategy, 600 growth capital increases with Liddell ongoing construction of Liddell 400 Battery Battery, Energy as a Service and electrification soluti
Slide 29: Cash flow
$m 1H25 1H24 Change Underlying EBITDA 1,068 1,074 (6) Equity accounted income (2) (6) 4 • Underlying operating cash flow $99 Accounting for onerous contracts (43) 1 (44) Other assets/liabilities and non-cash items 2 5 (3) million lower, driven by the ongoing Rehabilitation (44) (36) (8) remittance o
Slide 30: Funding position, net debt and maturity profile
Movement in Net Debt ($m) Debt maturity profile as of 31 December 2024 ($m) (2,518) (235) (10) (2,442) (216) 1,000 (257) (297) (1,769) (370) 800 712 600 400 31-Dec-23 30-Jun-24 Bill Operating Sustaining Growth Acquisitions FY24 final Other 31-Dec-24 relief cashflow Capex Capex and Other dividend 200
Slide 31: Forward electricity swap and cap prices
New South Wales Swap Prices ($/MWh) New South Wales Cap Prices ($/MWh) $150 FY 2027 $40 VWAP 31.6 FY 2027 $140 Traded Price ($ per MWh) Traded Price ($ per MWh) VWAP 122.1 $35 FY 2026 VWAP 30.6 $130 FY 2026 VWAP 119.8 $30 $120 $25 FY 2025 $110 FY 2025 VWAP 29.5 VWAP 115.5 $20 $100 $90 $15 $80 $10 No
Slide 32: Guidance
Guidance Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO Wattle Point Wind Farm, South Australia [DAMIEN NICKS] Thanks Gary. 31
Slide 33: FY25 guidance ranges narrowed
FY25 guidance ranges narrowed: • Underlying EBITDA between $1,935 and $2,135 million (previously between $1,870 million and $2,170 million) • Underlying NPAT between $580 and $710 million (previously between $530 million and $730 million) Narrowing of FY25 guidance reflects a strong first half perfo
Slide 34: Appendix
APPENDIX 33
Slide 35: Key results metrics
Statutory NPAT $97 m Underlying EBITDA $1,068 m (1) % Underlying NPAT $373 m (7) % Operating free cash flow* $291 m $(235) m Dividends 23 cps (12) % Return on Equity 14.1 % 3.0 pp Return on Capital Invested 12.8 % 2.7 pp *Excludes the $381 million energy bill relief rebate cash receipt which was rem
Slide 36: Statutory to Underlying NPAT reconciliation
$m 1H25 1H24 Change Statutory NPAT 97 576 (479) Adjust for following post-tax items: Movement in onerous contracts 165 136 29 Retail Transformation – Implementation 41 - 41 Retail Transformation – Other 4 - 4 Legal Penalties 25 - 25 Transaction costs 7 - 7 Impairments 3 33 (30) Moranbah Gas Project
Slide 37: Restated Customer Markets EBIT and volumes
Restated EBIT to Customer Markets – Ovo Energy Australia (OEA) Restated Consumer Electricity Sales Volumes 1H24 1H24 1H24 1H24 1H24 1H24 $ million GWh Reported OEA Restated Reported OEA Restated Investments EBIT (3) 15 12 New South Wales 2,605 16 2,620 Victoria 2,074 52 2,127 Customer Markets EBIT 1
Slide 38: Generation volumes by asset
GWh 1H25 1H24 Change Asset Bayswater 7,035 6,186 14% AGL Loy Yang 5,704 6,700 (15)% Torrens Island Power Station 463 216 114% Barker Inlet 155 87 78% Kwinana Swift 74 56 32% Other gas 49 19 158% QLD wind 617 608 1% SA wind 516 511 1% VIC wind 336 481 (30)% NSW wind 202 241 (16)% VIC hydro 466 543 (1
Slide 39: Customer services numbers
Restated (‘000) 31 December 2024 Change 30 June 20241 Consumer Electricity 2,533 2,528 0% New South Wales 898 893 1% Victoria 842 832 1% South Australia 356 359 (1)% Queensland 437 444 (2)% Consumer Gas 1,560 1,551 1% New South Wales 616 603 2% Victoria 603 611 (1)% South Australia 143 143 - Queensl
Slide 40: Electricity sales volumes
Restated GWh 1H25 Change 1H24 Consumer* New South Wales 2,721 2,620 4% Victoria 2,331 2,127 10% South Australia 826 817 1% Queensland 1,351 1,266 7% Consumer total 7,229 6,830 6% Large Business New South Wales 1,787 2,125 (16)% Victoria 878 912 (4)% South Australia 520 251 107% Queensland 657 763 (1
Slide 41: Gas sales volumes
PJ 1H25 1H24 Change Consumer New South Wales 7.3 7.3 - Victoria 14.4 14.4 - South Australia 1.3 1.3 - Queensland 1.0 1.1 (9)% Western Australia 0.8 0.8 - Consumer total 24.8 24.9 (0)% Large Business New South Wales 0.9 0.3 200% Victoria 2.4 1.5 60% South Australia 0.1 0.1 - Queensland 0.8 0.6 33% We
Slide 42: Generation assets and carbon intensity
Carbon intensity 1HFY25 sent out Asset State Type Status Capacity* (MW) (tCO2e/MWh) volume (GWh) Bayswater NSW Black coal Owned (operated) 2,715 0.93 7,177 AGL Loy Yang VIC Brown coal Owned (operated) 2,210 1.31 5,722 Total coal-fired 4,925 12,899 Torrens Island Power Station SA Gas steam turbine Ow
Slide 43: Customer load and pricing exposure
Historical customer load (TWh)1 FY26 forward curve for wholesale electricity pricing swaps (NSW and Victoria) ($/MWh) 40 200 31 December 2024 NSW 160 VIC 35 13.3 120 30 13.0 80 25 40 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Sep-22 May-23 May-24 Nov-22 Feb-23 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jun-24 Nov-24 Aug-22 Oct-22 Aug-2
Slide 44: Important notice and disclaimer
• The material in this presentation is general information about AGL’s activities as at the date of this presentation. It is provided in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It should be read in conjunction with AGL’s periodic reporting and other announcements lodged with the Australian