Agl Energy Limited · ASX:AGL
Agl Energy — FY2025 Earnings Presentation
56 slides from Agl Energy's earnings presentation, Aug 13, 2025
Slide 1: ASX & Media Release: FY25 Results Presentation
AGL Energy Limited Locked Bag 3013 Level 24, 200 George St T: +61 2 9921 2999 ABN: 74 115 061 375 Australia Square NSW 1215 Sydney NSW 2000 F: +61 2 9921 2552 Australia Australia www.agl.com.au ASX & Media Release FY25 Results Presentation 13 August 2025 Attached is AGL Energy Limited’s Full Year Re
Slide 2: FY25 Full-Year Results
Use content from Slide 15 for content…scripting FY25 Full-Year Results 13 August 2025 1
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1 Results highlights and business update Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO 4 Guidance and outlook Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO Strategy execution, operational overview 2 and investing in growth 5 Q&A Damien Nicks – Managing Director and CEO 3 Financial overview Gary Brown –
Slide 4: We continue to execute on our business strategy and decarbonisation pathway
We continue to execute on our business strategy and decarbonisation pathway • FY25 delivery and execution of strategy DISCIPLINED • Strong FY25 Results in line with guidance EXECUTION • Significant investment in growth with ~$900 million deployed towards battery developments and strategic investment
Slide 5: We continue to invest in growth and the future of our business
We continue to invest in growth and the future of our business, particularly in flexible asset fleet capacity. I’ll speak to how we’re unlocking value through multi-asset orchestration, and how we continue to capture a disproportionate share of the rapidly growing EV market and broader portfolio ben
Slide 6: Strong FY25 Results in line with guidance; Fully franked final dividend declared
Strong FY25 Results in line with guidance; Fully franked final dividend declared Significant investment in growth with ~$900 million deployed towards battery developments and strategic investments • Underlying EBITDA down 9% to $2,010 million; Underlying NPAT down 21% to $640 million • Underlying EB
Slide 7: Significant improvement in safety performance; customer and employee scores remain strong
Significant improvement in safety performance; Customer satisfaction and employee engagement scores remain strong Safety Customers People Total Injury Frequency Customer Satisfaction Employee engagement Rate (TIFR)1 (per million (CSAT)2 score hours worked) 80.5 81.6 72% 73% 67% 3.5 80.1 79.8 2.8 57%
Slide 8: Continuing to support our customers, community and First Nations people
Continuing to support our customers, community and First Nations people Customer, Community and First Nations Completed delivery of our two-year, $90 million Strong results in Strategic NPS +8, Customer Customer Support Package, including $76 million Satisfaction 81.6% and lowest tier one complaints
Slide 9: AGL’s 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan at a glance
AGL’s 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan at a glance Achieved closure Liddell Power Bayswater Power Station Loy Yang A Power Station Station closure Closure Closure 2023 2033 FY35 2050 Our decarbonisation FY24 – FY26 From FY27 FY35 Following coal closure Following coal closure By 2050 journey and p
Slide 10: Disciplined execution of strategy
Disciplined execution of strategy 250 MW Torrens Island Battery, South Australia [DAMIEN NICKS] I’ll now spend a few minutes talking to the continued transition of AGL, including our considerable strategic execution over the past three years since our refreshed strategy was announced in September 20
Slide 11: Significant progress on delivery of our refreshed strategy over three years
AGL has made significant progress on the delivery of our refreshed strategy over the past three years Powering Australian Life Connecting every Transitioning our customer to a energy portfolio sustainable future Ambition to add 12 GW of new Helping our customers renewable and firming capacity by dec
Slide 12: We have consistently delivered on our strategic priorities
In this time, we have consistently delivered on our strategic priorities Transitioning our April ’23 June '23 August '23 March ‘24 June '24 August '24 March ‘25 May ‘25 July ‘25 energy portfolio Closed Liddell PPA signed with Rye Park Torrens Battery (250 MW / 250 MWh) JV with Someva Commenced const
Slide 13: Strong progress towards our FY27 strategic targets
And have made strong progress towards our FY27 strategic targets Customer NPS leadership Operational performance14 Equivalent FY27: FY27: Availability FY25: +8 (Strategic NPS) FY25: 79.5% +20 88% Factor (EAF) New renewable and firming capacity Digital only customers development contracted or in deli
Slide 14: Targeted M&A has supported the delivery of our strategy
Our investment in targeted M&A has supported the delivery of our strategy Connecting every customer Transitioning our to a sustainable future energy portfolio Demand side flexibility portfolio advanced through the acquisition of Optionality and firming and storage South Australia’s Virtual Power Pla
Slide 15: Well on the way to transitioning our energy portfolio
And we are well on the way to transitioning our energy portfolio Significantly advanced our development pipeline Development pipeline more than tripled to 9.6 GW Material progress towards our FY30 portfolio rebuild target Development pipeline more than tripled to 9.6 GW from 2.9 GW20 in 2022 A furth
Slide 16: Delivering for customers
Delivering for customers [DAMIEN NICKS] Turning now to an update on how we continued to deliver for our customers in FY25. 14
Slide 17: Sustained growth in customer base and integrated product offerings
Sustained growth in our customer base and integrated product offerings delivering customer value in a competitive market Customer growth across all services Outperformance in a competitive market Balancing margin and customer outcomes Customer services (‘000) Churn (%) Consumer customer gross margin
Slide 18: CER strategy unlocking value through multi-asset orchestration
Our CER strategy is unlocking value through multi-asset orchestration, delivering benefits to AGL and its customers 1 Residential Batteries • Enabling load shifting for network, market, and customer benefits AGL has a strong platform for growth through our large customer base and multi-asset CER off
Slide 19: Continued progress on building a future ready business through Retail Transformation
Continued progress on building a future ready business through Retail Transformation Kaluza growth and increased … delivering strong growth and ... to deliver long term efficiencies and local presence… momentum on our roadmap… unlock material financial benefits26 Expanded Australian market Kaluza Re
Slide 20: Growing flexibility in the portfolio
Liddell Battery (under construction), New South Wales Use content from Slide 15 for content…scripting Growing flexibility in the portfolio [DAMIEN NICKS] Now to a discussion on the growing flexibility in our portfolio, starting with an overview of fleet performance and operations. 18
Slide 21: Flexible portfolio captured increased volatility despite lower fleet availability
Our flexible portfolio captured increased volatility despite lower fleet availability Portfolio flexibility mitigated lower Increased volatility captured despite Renewable and gas generation commercial availability lower thermal fleet availability volumes increased THERMAL FLEET COMMERCIAL AVAILABIL
Slide 22: Targeting stronger thermal fleet availability for FY26
We are targeting stronger thermal fleet availability for FY26 5-Year Thermal Fleet EAF (%) trend vs. Sustaining Capex • Lower Fleet EAF in FY25 driven by: ($m) • Additional planned major thermal outage compared to FY24 90% 88% 85.40% • Unplanned downtime in the second half, driven by tube leaks and
Slide 23: Flexible asset fleet continues to capture value in volatile energy market
Our flexible asset fleet continues to capture value in an increasingly volatile energy market AGL’s assets attracted a premium to AGL’s growth strategy focused on the time weighted market price assets that capture volatility Portfolio realised price / Average market price (%) Portfolio realised pric
Slide 24: Investing in growth and the future of the business
Use content from Slide 15 for content…scripting Investing in growth and the future of the business Artist’s impression of the 500 MW Tomago Battery in New South Wales [DAMIEN NICKS] Turning now to how we are investing in growth and the future of our business, beginning with a thematic discussion on
Slide 25: Market outlook sees positive electricity demand tailwinds
Market outlook sees positive electricity demand tailwinds and flexible capacity key to unlocking future value Winter daily demand records - NEM Electricity demand is forecast to 37 GW of grid-scale batteries and Record daily winter demand achieved in Victoria in 2025 significantly grow over the next
Slide 26: Capturing EV demand and load flexibility to win and retain customers
Capturing EV demand and load flexibility allows us to win and retain valuable customers and deliver broader portfolio value AGL Residential EV service plans growth Customers have significantly shifted load when presented with outstripping growth of EVs on the road32 the right proposition and price s
Slide 27: Accelerating growth in our consumer battery portfolio
We are accelerating growth in our consumer battery portfolio to unlock value Delivering an integrated customer experience to support consumer battery growth at scale Clear value pools to support future earnings across the portfolio Load shifting can deliver network, market and customer benefits Real
Slide 28: New grid-scale battery projects enhance flexible asset fleet capacity
New grid-scale battery projects further enhance our flexible asset fleet capacity and broader portfolio management ✓ Capability to manage diverse operating models: Legend – Build Own Operate In Operation – Build Own Contractor Operate Virtual or Physical Offtake 34 – Contracted Dispatch Rights Under
Slide 29: Financial overview
Use content from Slide 15 for content…scripting Financial overview Gary Brown Chief Financial Officer [GARY BROWN] Thank you, Damien and good morning, everyone. 27
Slide 30: Strong FY25 Results in line with guidance; final dividend declared
Strong FY25 Results in line with guidance; Fully franked final dividend declared Significant investment in growth with ~$900 million deployed towards battery developments and strategic investments STATUTORY LOSS AFTER TAX: Decrease in Underlying Profit due to lower EBITDA and higher D&A driven by co
Slide 31: Speaker notes: growth outlay and net debt
I will also later speak to the strong earnings stream these batteries are expected to deliver once they are operational. This significant cash outlay for growth, combined with the timing of energy bill relief, were two key drivers of the higher net debt of 2.9 billion dollars. Importantly, we’ve mai
Slide 32: Lower Underlying Profit as guided
Lower Underlying Profit as guided due to expected consumer margin compression, lower wholesale electricity prices resetting through contract positions, and higher D&A Breadth of AGL’s flexible asset fleet helped partially offset the earnings impact of lower thermal generation volumes Underlying Prof
Slide 33: Central managed expenses, depreciation and tax commentary
Moving further to the right – the increase in Central Managed Expenses is attributed to technology spend driven by additional licencing costs to support the Retail Transformation Program and other initiatives including cybersecurity. At the FY24 full year results, we indicated an uplift in depreciat
Slide 34: Operating costs remained broadly flat
Operating costs remained broadly flat as committed, demonstrating strong cost management in an inflationary environment Operating costs excluding depreciation and amortisation ($m) FY26 operating costs expected Continued investment in to increase by ~3%, driven by: Inflation more than offset Variabl
Slide 35: Higher capital expenditure driven by investment in growth
Higher capital expenditure driven by investment in growth and prudent spend to maintain thermal fleet reliability and availability Historic and forecast capital expenditure ($m) Growth Capital Expenditure 800 Distributed • FY26 forecast growth capital Energy spend primarily comprised of: Solutions a
Slide 36: Aim to more than offset earnings impact of re-contracting
We aim to more than offset any earnings impact of coal and gas re- contracting from our significant investment in flexible assets Strong performance delivered by AGL’s 300 MW operating battery fleet with 1,000 MW of projects under construction Grid-scale battery EBITDA - Actual and forecast ($m) FY2
Slide 37: Strong contracted position ahead of legacy coal and gas contract expiry
AGL has a strong contracted position that is being actively managed in advance of expiration of legacy coal and gas contracts Coal contracting (Bayswater): Gas contracting: • Bayswater has important advantages when contracting coal: • AGL’s gas portfolio is well balanced to 2027 when the QGC – Strat
Slide 38: Expected uplift in depreciation and amortisation
Expected uplift in depreciation and amortisation over the medium term largely driven by continued investment in growth and reliability Depreciation and amortisation expense ($m) 1,000 Expected drivers of ~900 higher depreciation and Investment in Rehabilitation amortisation expense in Growth 800 803
Slide 39: Significant investment in growth with ~$900 million deployed
Significant investment in growth with ~$900 million deployed towards battery developments and strategic investments Normalised cash conversion remains strong at 97% $m FY25 FY24 Change Underlying EBITDA 2,010 2,216 (206) • Underlying operating cash flow $980 million Equity accounted income 12 18 (6)
Slide 40: Strong cash flows deployed towards ~$900 million of growth initiatives
Strong cash flows deployed towards ~$900 million of growth initiatives Movement in Net Debt ($m) Debt maturity profile as of 30 June 2025 ($m) 1,200 No significant maturities until FY27 1,000 800 600 ~$900m deployed towards growth and 400 strategic acquisitions 200 0 (390) (32) (2,903) FY26 FY27 FY2
Slide 41: Disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management
Disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management Sustainable investment in our core business, portfolio Indicative sources and utilisation of cash transition and delivering shareholder returns (medium term) 1 Maintain strong credit profile: Baa2 investment grade credit rating
Slide 42: Guidance and outlook
Use content from Slide 15 for content…scripting Guidance and outlook Damien Nicks Managing Director and CEO Wattle Point Wind Farm, South Australia [DAMIEN NICKS] Thanks Gary. 38
Slide 43: FY26 guidance and outlook
FY26 guidance and outlook AGL’s FY26 guidance reflects a continued strong outlook for Underlying EBITDA, with an expected increase in depreciation and amortisation and finance costs impacting Underlying NPAT as AGL continues the delivery of its strategy FY26 guidance range: • Underlying EBITDA betwe
Slide 44: FY27 forward and cap pricing broadly in line with FY26
FY27 forward and cap pricing broadly in line with FY26 New South Wales Cap Prices ($/MWh) New South Wales Swap Prices ($/MWh) $40 $150 FY 2027 Traded Price ($ per MWh) FY 2026 $140 FY 2024 FY 2027 $35 VWAP 29.9 Traded Price ($ per MWh) VWAP 31.0 VWAP 125.9 VWAP 118.9 FY 2026 $130 $30 VWAP 120.4 $120
Slide 45: Appendix
APPENDIX 41
Slide 46: FY25 Financial Result Summary
FY25 Financial Result Summary FY25 Change from FY24 Statutory NPAT $(98) m Underlying EBITDA $2,010 m (9) % Underlying NPAT $640 m (21) % Operating free cash flow* $788 m $(567) m Dividends 48 cps (21) % Return on Equity 12.1 % 2.8 pp Return on Capital Invested 11.1 % 2.4 pp *Excludes the $381 milli
Slide 47: Reconciliation of Statutory Profit to Underlying Profit
Reconciliation of Statutory Profit to Underlying Profit $m FY25 FY24 Change Statutory NPAT (98) 711 (809) Adjust for following post-tax items: Movement in onerous contracts 398 (1) 399 Retail Transformation 87 27 60 Business restructuring and transaction costs 55 (46) 101 Legal penalties 25 - 25 Mov
Slide 48: Electricity volumes sold to pool
Electricity volumes sold to pool GWh FY25 FY24 Change Asset Bayswater 14,065 14,334 (2)% AGL Loy Yang 12,461 14,063 (11)% Torrens Island Power Station 843 559 51% Barker Inlet 380 272 40% Kwinana Swift 110 110 0% Other gas 101 41 146% QLD wind 1,266 1,210 5% SA wind 999 941 6% VIC wind 700 750 (7)%
Slide 49: Customer services
Customer services Restated (‘000) 30 June 2025 Change 30 June 202442 Consumer Electricity 2,524 2,528 0% New South Wales 882 893 (1)% Victoria 849 832 2% South Australia 356 359 (1)% Queensland 437 444 (2)% Consumer Gas 1,558 1,551 0% New South Wales 612 603 1% Victoria 605 611 (1)% South Australia
Slide 50: Electricity sales volumes
Electricity sales volumes Restated GWh FY25 Change FY24 Consumer43 New South Wales 5,459 5,417 1% Victoria 4,731 4,373 8% South Australia 1,700 1,707 0% Queensland 2,786 2,713 3% Consumer total 14,676 14,210 3% Large Business New South Wales 3,550 4,080 (13)% Victoria 1,815 1,772 2% South Australia
Slide 51: Gas sales volumes
Gas sales volumes PJ FY25 FY24 Change Consumer New South Wales 13.6 13.7 (1)% Victoria 26.2 26.6 (2)% South Australia 2.4 2.5 (4)% Queensland 1.9 2.1 (10)% Western Australia 1.4 1.3 8% Consumer total 45.5 46.2 (2)% Large Business New South Wales 1.6 1.2 33% Victoria 4.5 3.6 25% South Australia 0.1 0
Slide 52: Electricity generation and storage portfolio performance
Electricity generation and storage portfolio performance Carbon intensity FY25 sent out Asset State Type Status Capacity (MW)47 (tCO2e/MWh) volume (GWh)46 Bayswater NSW Black coal Owned (operated) 2,715 0.93 14,376 AGL Loy Yang VIC Brown coal Owned (operated) 2,210 1.30 12,528 Total coal-fired 4,925
Slide 53: Indicative split of AGL’s customer load
Indicative split of AGL’s customer load Historical customer load (TWh)49 FY27 forward curve for wholesale electricity pricing swaps (NSW and Victoria) ($/MWh) 200 40 30 June 2025 150 35 100 30 13.7 13.0 50 25 0 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Sep-23 Feb-24 Sep-24 Feb-25 Jul-23 Jul-24 Nov-23 Aug-24 Aug-2
Slide 54: Disclaimer and important information
Disclaimer and important information • The material in this presentation is general information about AGL’s activities as at the date of this presentation. It is provided in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It should be read in conjunction with AGL’s periodic reporting and other ann
Slide 55: Endnotes
Endnotes 1. Page 5 Rolling number for 1 July to 30 June 2025, includes employees and contractors. 2. Page 5 AGL Transactional Customer Satisfaction survey – June 2025. 3. Page 7 Reduction in gross Scope 1 and 2 emissions compared to FY19 baseline. 4. Page 7 Ambition to reduce gross Scope 3 emissions
Slide 56: Endnotes (continued)
Endnotes (continued) 35. Page 28 Underlying EBITDA includes centrally managed expenses and investments. 36. Page 28 Comparatives have been restated to transfer Ovo Energy Australia from Investments to AGL following 100% ownership on 3 April 2024. 37. Page 29 Not adjusted for tax. 38. Page 32 Total a