Slide 1: Making an Impact
Making anImpact 2015 RESULTS AND EARNINGS GUIDANCE February 19, 2016
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented core earnings, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is included either on the slide where the non-GAAP measur
Slide 3: Business Update
Business Update Warner Baxter Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 4: 2015 Earnings Summary
2015 Earnings Summary Strong 2015 core earnings growth driven by: Core1 Diluted EPS Increased investments in electric transmission and 2014 vs. 2015 delivery infrastructure at ATXI and Ameren Illinois Absence of nuclear refueling and maintenance outage $2.56 at Callaway Energy Center $2.40 Dis
Slide 5: Executing Our Strategy in 2015
Executing Our Strategy in 2015 Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Invested $1.3 billion in FERC-regulated electric transmission and Illinois electric and natural gas delivery infrastructure under modern, constructive ratemaking • Str
Slide 6: 2016 Earnings Guidance
2016 Earnings Guidance Diluted EPS Expect 2016 earnings to benefit from: Increased investment in electric transmission and delivery 2015 vs. 2016 infrastructure made under modern, constructive regulatory 1 $2.60 frameworks $2.56 Higher Illinois natural gas delivery service rates incorporating $2
Slide 7: Noranda's Impact on Ameren Expected to be Temporary
Noranda’s Impact on Ameren Expected to be Temporary • Noranda Aluminum’s Background 2016 Expected – Ameren Missouri supplies electricity to Noranda’s aluminum smelter Diluted EPS – Ameren Missouri’s largest customer: ~4% of revenues and ~10% of MWh sales in 2015 Impact from – Noranda’s portion of Am
Slide 8: Executing Our Strategy in 2016
Executing Our Strategy in 2016 Key Focus Areas • FERC-regulated electric transmission – Advance regional multi-value projects (Illinois Rivers, Spoon River and Mark Twain) and local reliability projects included in investment plan – Continue to work for constructive outcomes in MISO ROE complaint ca
Slide 9: Missouri Regulatory Update
Missouri Regulatory Update Proposed Legislation to Modernize Electric Utility Regulation (Senate Bill 1028 and House Bill 2495) • Would modernize regulatory process – Establishes policies that encourage investment in electric utility infrastructure – Provides for timely recovery of actual, prudently
Slide 10: Long-Term Total Return Outlook
Long-Term Total Return Outlook • Expect strong ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 2020 2015 to 2020E Regulated 5-Yr Rate – Strong pipeline of investments to benefit customers Infrastructure Rate Base1 Base CAGR and shareholders $16.7 6.5% – Brought forward more than $1.5 billio
Slide 11: Financial Update
Financial Update Marty Lyons Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 12: GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended Dec 31, Dec 31, 2014 2015 2014 2015 GAAP Diluted EPS $ 0.20 $ 0.12 $ 2.40 $ 2.59 Results from discontinued operations – primarily recognition of tax benefit from resolution of uncertain tax position (0.01) – – (0.21) Provisi
Slide 13: 2015 Earnings Analysis
2015 Earnings Analysis Core Diluted EPS1 Key Core Earnings Variance Drivers: 2014 vs. 2015 Increased electric transmission and delivery infrastructure investments by ATXI and Ameren Illinois2: +$0.20 Absence, in 2015, of a Callaway energy center scheduled refueling and $2.56 maintenance outage:
Slide 14: 2016 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2016 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions Higher average estimated rate base: ~$2.11 billion compared to ~$1.41 billion in 2015 reflecting FERC-Regulated infrastructure investments made under formula ratemaking • MISO base allowed ROE plus 50 basis point adder for MISO participation less
Slide 15: 2016 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions, Cont'd
2016 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions, Cont’d Estimated net effect of reduced electric sales to Noranda: ~$(0.13) Impact of 2013-2015 energy efficiency plan on 2016 sales partially offset by performance incentive Increased depreciation, transmission and property tax expenses Ca
Slide 16: 2016 Cash Flow Guidance
2016 Cash Flow Guidance 2016 Capital Expenditures 2016 $2,155 ($ millions) Guidance Net cash provided by operating activities $ 1,825 $690 ($ millions) Capital expenditures (2,155) Other cash used in investing activities (40) $630 Dividends: common and preferred1 (420) Free cash flow $ (790) $835 Ma
Slide 17: 2016-2020 Planned Capital Expenditures & Expected Funding
2016-2020 Planned Capital Expenditures & Expected Funding $11.1 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure Expected Funding Investment1 2016-2020 • Return of capital through depreciation in rates • Retained earnings Ameren Illinois • ~$2.5-$2.6 billion of income tax deferrals and tax assets Transmission Am
Slide 18: Summary
Summary Delivered solid core earnings growth in 2015 Successfully executing our strategy Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 2020 • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 2020 – Based on adjusted 2016 EPS of $2.63, w
Slide 19: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 20: Solid Operating Performance
Solid Operating Performance # Delivery system reliability Generating plant Electric rates are low Safety has improved has improved performance remains strong Average Residential Electricity Prices1 Safety Performance 30 600 150 Lost Workday 25 Recordable Cases ¢/KWh 20 BETTER 400 100 BETTER Cases 15
Slide 21: Electric Transmission ROE Cases Pending at FERC
Electric Transmission ROE Cases Pending at FERC MISO ROE Complaint Cases • Cases seek to reduce Ameren Illinois’ and ATXI’s transmission service allowed base ROE of 12.38% retroactive to Nov. 2013 filing date – Schedule for initial case • ALJ initial decision issued Dec. 22 recommended a 10.32% base
Slide 22: New Ameren Missouri Energy Efficiency Plan
New Ameren Missouri Energy Efficiency Plan New MEEIA Plan For March 2016 - Feb. 2019 Stipulation and agreement approved by MoPSC on Feb. 10, 2016 • Reflects continued commitment to offering cost-effective and realistically achievable energy efficiency programs to customers • Will provide estimated n
Slide 23: FERC-Regulated Transmission Investments
FERC-Regulated Transmission Investments Planned $3.0 billion investment – 2016-2020 – $1.0 billion of regional multi-value projects at ATXI Regional – $2.0 billion of local reliability and connecting portions of regional Multi-Value Projects multi-value projects at Ameren Illinois Total Multi-Value
Slide 24: Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters
Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters Illinois Commerce Commission • Recently decided natural gas delivery rate case: Docket No. 15-0142 • Recently decided electric delivery rate case: Docket No. 15-0305 • Website: http://www.icc.illinois.gov Missouri Public Service Commission • Request for CPCN
Slide 25: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar MARCH 2016 APRIL 2016 MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 Morgan UBS Conf. Stanley Conf. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 MUFG Q1 Quiet Conf. Period 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 European European European European
Slide 26: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations ALJ - Administrative Law Judge. GAAP - Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. ATXI - Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois. ICC - Illinois Commerce Commission. B - Billion. MEEIA - Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act. CAGR - Compound annual growth rate.