Slide 1: Q4 2023 Results Presentation
Q4 2023 Results Presentation 14 February 2024 1
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is for background purposes only and does not purport to be full or complete. No reliance may or should be placed by any person for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or f
Slide 3: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Highlights Q4 2023 & FY 2023 Financial Performance & Updates Market Outlook Appendix 3
Slide 4: Safety First
Safety First Commitment to Zero Injuries Target Zero Injuries at All Facilities 12-month rolling recordable incident rate to 31 December • Achieve leadership in safety and occupational standards 2023 0.12 incidents per 200,000 manhours across the operations • Fostering a culture of zero injuries at
Slide 5: Fertiglobe at a Glance
Fertiglobe at a Glance 50% Leading Nitrogen Fertilizer Exporter Globally 4 World-class Strategically Located of Assets Younger Production Facilities and Unique Ammonia Platform than 10 years Current Ownership Structure Early Mover in Global In-House Distribution Capabilities 50.0% Sustainable includ
Slide 6: Executive Summary
Executive Summary ► Q4 2023 results: Revenues and adjusted EBITDA were $646 million and $289 million, respectively. Adjusted net profit after minorities during the quarter was $103 million. ► 2023 results: Revenues and adjusted EBITDA were $2,416 million and $1,004 million, respectively. Adjusted ne
Slide 7: A New Chapter in Fertiglobe's Journey
A New Chapter in Fertiglobe’s Journey What was announced? ADNOC has agreed to acquire OCI’s 50% stake in Fertiglobe, making ADNOC the majority shareholder of Fertiglobe (86.2%) post closing, pending standard legal and regulatory approvals. The free float listed on ADX remains unchanged at 13.8% post
Slide 8: Urea Prices Rebounded at start of 2024 On Emerged Deferred Demand
Urea Prices Rebounded at start of 2024 On Emerged Deferred Demand Urea prices have increased from ≈$340/t levels in Dec-23 to ≈$410/t in Feb-24, supporting N values Recovery in urea prices Global trade recovery expected in 2024+ Tightening supply balance $/t Global Ammonia Trade, Million t New urea
Slide 9: Fertiglobe's Key Investment Highlights
Fertiglobe’s Key Investment Highlights 1 Leading nitrogen fertilizer exporter globally and unique ammonia platform Strategically located asset base and global distribution capabilities driving structurally higher 2 realized prices High quality asset base at attractive cost curve position underpinned
Slide 10: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Highlights Q4 2023 & FY 2023 Financial Performance & Updates Market Outlook Appendix 10
Slide 11: Q4 & FY 2023 Results Summary
Q4 & FY 2023 Results Summary Summary Key Financials1 and KPIs $ million unless otherwise stated Q4 2023 Q4 2022 %Δ 2023 2022 %Δ • Own-produced volumes up 15% YoY to 1,464kt in Q4 2023: Revenue 645.9 1,053.5 (39%) 2,416.2 5,027.5 (52%) 4% YoY higher ammonia own-produced sales volumes of 340kt in Q4
Slide 12: Q4 & FY 2023 Financial Summary
Q4 & FY 2023 Financial Summary Own-produced sales volumes (MT) Key Product Benchmark Prices, $/t Revenue ($m) 5.70 -52% 5.43 6,0 00 Urea Egypt Ammonia Middle East 1.19 -44% -58% 5,0 00 1.23 120 0 100 0 -39% -49% -39% 4,0 00 800 3,0 00 5,028 4.51 600 1.28 1.46 4.2 990 868 2,0 00 0.99 0.34 0.95 756 40
Slide 13: Q4 & FY 2023 Free Cash Flow Build-Up
Q4 & FY 2023 Free Cash Flow Build-Up Reconciliation of Q4 2023 EBITDA to Free cash flow ($ million) Free Cash Flow before Dividends paid to NCI NCI & WHT & WHT Reconciliation of FY 2023 EBITDA to Free cash flow ($ million) Free Cash Flow before Dividends paid to NCI NCI & WHT & WHT 13
Slide 14: FY 2023 Net Debt Build-Up
FY 2023 Net Debt Build-Up Change in Net (Cash) Debt from 31 December 2022 to 31 December 2023 ($ million) 1 31 Dec 2023 in FX Notes: 1.Free cash flow of $(201) million is net of dividends paid to non-controlling interests and withholding tax 14
Slide 15: Revenue
Strong Revenue Profile Translating Into Robust EBITDA and Cash Flow Generation Through Low Capex EBITDA Margin and FCF Conversion Advantages Result in Ample Dividend Capacity Revenue Favourable geographical positioning and centralized commercial strategy ~$2,416m leveraging on unique distribution pl
Slide 16: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Highlights Q4 2023 & FY 2023 Financial Performance & Updates Market Outlook Appendix 16
Slide 17: Nitrogen Markets Underpinned by Robust Upstream & Downstream Drivers
Nitrogen Markets Underpinned by Robust Upstream & Downstream Drivers Prior cycle Drivers Support Demand Driven Environment Current cycle (last 5-6 years) 30% 26% Corn stocks-to-use ratio 2023/24 corn stocks-to-use ratio $3.7/bushel $4.8/bushel HIGH CROP PRICES and AFFORDABILITY SUPPORT NITROGEN DEMA
Slide 18: Robust Agricultural Fundamentals
Robust Agricultural Fundamentals Grain stocks-to-use ratio below the 10-year average supports farm incomes and increased planted acreage to rebuild stocks and nitrogen demand recovery. Crop prices supported by stocks: use ratio below 10-year average Urea affordability +26% since Q3 2022, supporting
Slide 19: Agri Fundamentals Remain Supportive Despite Softer Grains Futures
Agri Fundamentals Remain Supportive Despite Softer Grains Futures Grains-to-Urea Price ratio, Jan-2020 to Dec-2023 Brazil Corn-to-Urea Price ratio Medium-term crop prices supported by stocks-to- use ratios Grains prices represented by a basket of corn, wheat & rice Jul-2021 to Jan-2024 US Corn and w
Slide 20: Constrained Chinese Exports & Robust Indian Imports Supportive Of Nitrogen Prices
Constrained Chinese Exports & Robust Indian Imports Supportive Of Nitrogen Prices Indian Imports Robust As New Capacity Does not Cover the Shortfall Chinese Exports Curtailed on Tighter Governmental Policy in Supply India remains among top 3 urea China urea exports, Mt India imports, Mt importers gl
Slide 21: Limited New Nitrogen Capacity, Offset by Higher Demand
Limited New Nitrogen Capacity, Offset by Higher Demand Slower pace of new urea capacity additions with good visibility given ~5- Merchant ammonia market expected to be underpinned by demand recovery year project lead time. Robust nitrogen demand for ag & tech use. & cost curve economics Global ammon
Slide 22: EU Gas Costs Remain Elevated vis-à-vis Major Export Hubs
EU Gas Costs Remain Elevated vis-à-vis Major Export Hubs Global Feedstock Prices 2017-2024F, $/MMBtu Cash Costs per ton of Ammonia 2017-2024F, $/t Global differentials between US, North Africa and EU marginal costs remain wide 2500 70 Arbitrage between international ammonia pricing & 60 domestic EU
Slide 23: Fertiglobe Positioned on First Quartile of Nitrogen Cost Curves
Fertiglobe Positioned on First Quartile of Nitrogen Cost Curves Benefit from attractively priced, long-term gas contracts and low conversion costs Long-term attractive gas supply agreements with EGPC in Egypt, Sonatrach in Algeria, and ADNOC in Abu Dhabi supporting advantageous cost position You
Slide 24: Limited New Ammonia Supply More Then Offset by Demand Growth
Limited New Ammonia Supply More Then Offset by Demand Growth Global Merchant (grey + blue + green) ammonia supply and demand, Mt1 million tonnes ammonia 2023-26 Total grey merchant supply New project (Pre-FEED) New Project (FID) Total (grey + low carbon) demand • Merchant grey ammonia market is tigh
Slide 25: Accelerating Low Carbon Ammonia Demand Driven by New Applications
Accelerating Low Carbon Ammonia Demand Driven by New Applications Demand from Low Carbon Application is Materialising Rapidly in the Near Term Million tonnes ammonia 1 ~45 Mt • Maritime Fuels ~25 Mt • Maritime sector increasingly incentivised to adopt clean fuels Maritime partly due to FuelEU mariti
Slide 26: Low Carbon Ammonia Supply will be Slow to Commission
Low Carbon Ammonia Supply will be Slow to Commission <25% of Project Announcements Get Built, and <30% Realized on Time Significant Low Carbon Ammonia Supply Bottlenecks Firm nitrogen projects in 2008 pipeline, ex-China, Million Mt Firm US nitrogen projects in 2018 pipeline, Million Mt Bottleneck De
Slide 27: Ammonia Demand Snapshot
Ammonia Demand Snapshot Blue ammonia to dominate low-carbon NH3 market until 2030 due to higher cost for green / lack of concrete demand Market readiness = demand Blue Demand size (2030) Regulation technology readiness, economic Market readiness Green competitiveness High Existing uses - blue (EU)
Slide 28: Demand from Power
Demand from Power Co-firing regulation in Asia to trigger sustained blue ammonia demand uplift Ammonia Demand in Japan and South Korea for Use in Power Generation Million tonnes ammonia Illustrative future upside based on govt. targets Further upside from Europe 150 1 Aggregate Demand Co-firing of c
Slide 29: Demand as a Hydrogen Carrier
Demand as a Hydrogen Carrier Announced cracking projects, while nascent, suggest strong demand growth Ammonia Demand from H2 Cracking - Europe and Asia Announced Projects, Million tonnes ammonia • RePowerEU has set a European hydrogen production (10 Mt) and separate import target (10 Mt) by 2030. Eu
Slide 30: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Highlights Q4 2023 & FY 2023 Financial Performance & Updates Market Outlook Appendix 30
Slide 31: December 2023 Leverage Position
December 2023 Leverage Position Fertiglobe Ends Dec 2023 with Net Debt of $905 million $ million 31-Dec-23 31-Dec-22 Cash and bank balances 759.8 1,442.0 Loans and borrowings - current 174.9 89.6 Loans and borrowings - non-current 1,490.2 1,065.6 Total borrowings 1,665.1 1,155.2 Net debt / (cash) 90
Slide 32: Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Profit
Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Profit Reconciliation of reported operating profit to adjusted EBITDA $ million Q4 2023 Q4 2022 2023 2022 Adjustment in P&L Operating profit as reported 214.6 371.4 710.1 2,185.4 Depreciation and amortization 70.5 81.4 279.3 266.3 EBITDA 285.1 452.8
Slide 33: Reconciliation of EBITDA to Free Cash Flow and Change in Net Debt
Reconciliation of EBITDA to Free Cash Flow and Change in Net Debt Reconciliation of EBITDA to Free Cash Flow and Change in Net Debt/(Cash) $ million Q4 2023 Q4 2022 2023 2022 EBITDA 285.1 452.8 989.4 2,451.7 Working capital (56.1) 55.8 (57.8) 19.2 Maintenance capital expenditure (23.4) (63.4) (93.9)
Slide 34: Ta'ziz Low Carbon Ammonia Project in the UAE
Ta’ziz Low Carbon Ammonia Project in the UAE World-scale 1mtpa low-carbon ammonia production Milestones capacity 2021: Announced world scale 1 million tons low- carbon ammonia facility in partnership with ADNOC and ADQ (Ta'ziz), GS Energy Corporation and Mitsui & Co., Ltd Signing of Shareholders
Slide 35: Fertiglobe Gas Contracts Overview
Fertiglobe Gas Contracts Overview Attractively Priced Fixed Gas Contracts Ensure Fertiglobe is Competitive Through the Nitrogen Cycle (1) Gas Supplier ADNOC GASCO(2) EGPC(2) Sonatrach Contract Start Date 2019 2005 - 2006 2008 2013 Contract End Date 2044 2030 - 2031 2028 2033 Annual Contract Volume 5
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