First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA

First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (August 2025)

26 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Aug 27, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Monthly Market Update

    Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP Chief Investment Officer Phillip Neuhart, SVP Monthly Market Update Senior Director of Market and Economic Research Recorded on August 27, 2025

  2. Slide 2: What are we going to cover?

    What are we going to cover? 1. Economic Update: Growth Outlook | Tariff Update | Inflation & Labor Market | Fed Policy | Consumer Spending 2. Market Update: Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income | Investing for the Long Term

  3. Slide 3: Economic & Policy Update

    Economic & Policy Update Growth Outlook | Tariff Update | Inflation & Labor Market | Fed Policy | Consumer Spending

  4. Slide 4: Economic Forecasts Have Weakened Across the Board vs. Earlier This Year

    Economic Forecasts Have Weakened Across the Board vs. Earlier This Year Economic Activity Labor Market Inflation GDP Growth New Jobs per Month Consumer Price Index +2.1% +1.6% +121,000 +105,000 2.5% 2.9% Expectation for 2025, Today’s Expectation for 2025, Today’s Expectation for 2025, Today’s start

  5. Slide 5: Forecasters See the Economy Rebounding After a Tumultuous First Half

    Forecasters See the Economy Rebounding After a Tumultuous First Half US Real GDP Growth and Median Professional Forecast Probability of Recession, Next Twelve Months GDP growth Potential growth rate Median Professional Forecast 5.0% 100% 90% 4.0% 80% 70% 3.0% Consensus forecast 60% 2.0% 50% 40% 1.0%

  6. Slide 6: Markets Expect the Federal Reserve to Start Lowering Rates Soon

    Markets Expect the Federal Reserve to Start Lowering Rates Soon Federal Funds Rate and Market-Implied Path % 6 End 2025: 5 3.79% 4 3 2 1 o~------------------------------------------ 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Source: Federal Reserve, First Citizens Bank Dat

  7. Slide 7: Foreign Central Banks Have Eased Monetary Policy This Year

    Foreign Central Banks Have Eased Monetary Policy This Year Central Bank Policy Rates 5.0% No change Today Dec. 2024 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% -75bp 3.0% 2.5% -50bp 2.0% 1.5% -100bp 1.0% +25bp 0.5% 0.0% United States European Union United Kingdom Canada Japan Source: Bloomberg Data as of August 20, 2025 7

  8. Slide 8: Markets Expect Inflation to Run North of 3% Over the Next Year

    Markets Expect Inflation to Run North of 3% Over the Next Year 8

  9. Slide 9: Retail Prices for Tariffed Goods Rose Sharply but Have Since Flattened

    Retail Prices for Tariffed Goods Rose Sharply but Have Since Flattened 9

  10. Slide 10: Households Spending Is Picking Up, Even on an Inflation-Adjusted Basis

    Households Spending Is Picking Up, Even on an Inflation-Adjusted Basis Growth of US Retail Spending by Income Cohort, Relative to January 2022 Inflation Adjusted and Seasonally Adjusted, 3-month Average % 7.5 - High income (over $100k) - Low income ($0-60k) 5.0 - Middle income ($60k-1 00k) - - Overa

  11. Slide 11: Credit Card Delinquency Rates Are Climbing

    Credit Card Delinquency Rates Are Climbing 90-Day Credit Card Delinquency Rate Percent 15.0 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, First Citizens Bank Data as of 2025 Q2 11

  12. Slide 12: Recent Data Revisions Flipped the Narrative on Job Growth

    Recent Data Revisions Flipped the Narrative on Job Growth Monthly Job Growth, Three Month Average Thousands 500 c Reported data before August 1 ■ Revised data from August 1 450 400 350 300 Effect of revisions l 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

  13. Slide 13: Market Update

    Market Update Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income

  14. Slide 14: Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff

    Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff Total Market Returns As of 8/22/2025 Feb. 19 Since YTD US peak to Feb. 19 peak 2025 Apr. 8 trough US Equities -19.3% +5.6% +10.6% Intl. Developed -8.5% +16.0% +25.2% Equities Emerging Market -11.4% +13.6% +20.3% Equities Aggregate Fixed +1.0

  15. Slide 15: The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound

    The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound S&P 500 Index +5% 6500 6000 5500 -8% 5000 -5% -19% 4500 4000 -10% -25% Total return since 10/12/2022: +89% 3500 Jan '22 May '22 Sep '22 Jan '23 May '23 Sep '23 Jan '24 May '24 Sep '24 Jan '25 May '25 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 8/22/2025. 15

  16. Slide 16: S&P 500 Valuations Are Robust

    S&P 500 Valuations Are Robust S&P 500 Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings Ratio 28X 24X 20X +1 Standard Deviation 16X Average 12X -1 Standard Deviation 8X 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Source: Strategas. Data as of 7/31/2025. 16

  17. Slide 17: Corporate Earnings

    Corporate Earnings ▪ 2025 estimated growth is 10.3% 19% Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin 17.9% 18% ▪ 2026 estimated growth is 13.3% 17% 16% ▪ Average growth since 1950 is 7.6% 15% 14% 13% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: FactSet, Bloomberg. Data as of 8/8/2025. 17

  18. Slide 18: EPS Revisions Have Rebounded

    EPS Revisions Have Rebounded Upward Earnings Estimate Revisions Pct. Total (3-Month Average) 80% 70% S&P 500 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22 '25 Source: Strategas. Data through July 2025. 18

  19. Slide 19: S&P 500 Price Target

    S&P 500 Price Target Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Percent Next Twelve Months Change from Price Level 8/25/25 Bear 4,900 -23.9% Base 6,800 5.6% Bull 7,450 15.7% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 19

  20. Slide 20: The Treasury Yield Curve Has Steepened This Year

    The Treasury Yield Curve Has Steepened This Year 5.2% US Treasury Yield Curve 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% As of Latest date - Aug. 22 3.4% Dec. 31, 2024 3.2% 1 3 6 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 M M M Yr Yr Yr

  21. Slide 21: Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield Relative to Post-GFC Cycle

    Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield Relative to Post-GFC Cycle US Fixed Income Indices Yield-to-Worst Index As of 8/22/2025 2-Year Treasury 3.7% 10-Year Treasury 4.3% Aggregate Bond 4.5% Intermediate Government/Credit 4.0% Municipal Bond 3.9% Investment Grade Corporate Bond 4.9% High Yie

  22. Slide 22: Fixed Income Forward Return Typically Tracks Aggregate Bond Yields

    Fixed Income Forward Return Typically Tracks Aggregate Bond Yields US Aggregate Bond Yield and Forward Return . • % - -• 9 ■ Yield to Worst • • Forward Return _ • •- -• • 8 • - • - r• • 7 - - - • • • • 6 - - - - - - - - 5 •- - -• re" 4 • • • • 3 -• - - - -- - 2 • -• - - • • - • 1 0 1990 1992 1994 19

  23. Slide 23: The US Is Projected to Continue Running Large, Persistent Deficits

    The US Is Projected to Continue Running Large, Persistent Deficits US Federal Budget Balance Percent 2.5 0.0 -2.5 -2.3% -5.0 .. • •. .. ,Forecast .... . .. .. -7.5 -10.0 -8.5% -12.5 -15.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office (

  24. Slide 24: Market Timing Is a Dangerous Game

    Market Timing Is a Dangerous Game Growth of $10,000, S&P 500 Compounded Total Returns January 1, 1995 - December 31, 2024 $140,000 $131,347 37% less 54% less 73% less 83% less 89% less 92% less $120,000 • Nearly half (48%) of the S&P $100,000 500 Index’s strongest days $83,010 occurred during a bear

  25. Slide 25: In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes

    Brent Ciliano, SVP In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes Chief Investment Officer every Monday morning Q&As | Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top questions we’re hearing from clients Phillip Neuhart, SVP Director of Market and Market updates | Monthly interactive discuss

  26. Slide 26: Authors

    Authors Important Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or insurance product, and should not be

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