Garrett Motion Inc. · NASDAQ:GTX
Garrett Motion — Corporate Update (January 2021)
17 slides from Garrett Motion's corporate update, Jan 8, 2021
Slide 1: December 2020 Revised Business Outlook
Exhibit 99.1 December 2020 REVISED BUSINESS OUTLOOKExhibit 99.1 December 2020 REVISED BUSINESS OUTLOOK
Slide 2: 2021-2024 Industry Outlook | Powertrain Macro Assumptions
2021-2024 Industry Outlook | Powertrain Macro Assumptions April STRAP 6+6 Update December STRAP Global Auto Industry Production (2015 – 2024) CAGR-% CAGR-% CAGR-% 19-24 19-24 19-24 (M units, light and commercial vehicles & engines) 104 103 103 103 103 103 101 101 101 0% 100 100 0% 1% 99 98 97 97 97
Slide 3: Light Vehicle Powertrain Macro Deep-Dive
Light Vehicle Powertrain Macro Deep-Dive LV-Gas Turbo penetration LV-Diesel mix-% BEV mix-% Aligned to IHS until 2022, more conservative thereafter Apr and Dec STRAP aligned | IHS expecting slower drop Raised global BEV pen-% assumptions in Dec STRAP LVG T-pen-%, 2019-24 LVD mix, 2019-24 BEV mix, 20
Slide 4: Volume Forecast By Product Line
Volume Forecast By Product Line Total Volumes LV Gasoline LV Diesel Commercial Vehicles Global GTX production (M units, excl. e-Boost & FCC) 17.7 10.9 17.0 0.9 10.0 0.9 15.0 0.8 8.2 13.4 13.1 11.9 0.7 AM 0.8 6.9 0.6 5.6 5.4 11.8 5.2 4.4 18.1 4.3 17.3 10.6 4.3 4.0 4.3 15.3 8.7 13.4 OEM 12.3 7.2 11.3
Slide 5: December STRAP: Volume and Revenue Build Up
December STRAP: Volume and Revenue Build Up ($ in million and volumes in thousands) Volume Evolution by Product Revenue Evolution by Product (1) Light Vehicle Diesel Light Vehicle Gas Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Light Vehicle Diesel Light Vehicle Gas Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Other CAGR CAGR
Slide 6: December STRAP: Potential Upside in 2021E
December STRAP: Potential Upside in 2021E ($ in million and volumes in thousands) 2021E Volume Upside 2021E Revenue Upside +8.8% +15.0% Growth (vs. 2021E Apr. STRAP) Growth (vs. 2021E Apr. STRAP) +5.0% +11.1% $191 $3,541 $271 $3,350 $3,078 785 14,221 640 13,436 12,796 2021E Apr STRAP 2021E Demand 20
Slide 7: December STRAP: Key Financial Metrics
December STRAP: Key Financial Metrics ($ in millions) Total Revenue / Annual Growth % Gross Profit / Margin % 26% 24% 24% 24% 24% $4,204 23% $4,090 $3,698 $1,023 $3,350 $993 $3,248 $2,999 $888 $847 12% 10% 11% $789 $698 3% (4%) (8%) 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2
Slide 8: December STRAP: Free Cash Flow Profile
December STRAP: Free Cash Flow Profile ($ in millions) Free Cash Flow $360 $343 Adj. FCF $318 $288 $233 $54 Adj. EBITDA 583 672 651 566 490 436 Change in NWC 8 59 39 Cash Interest (44) (43) (44) (54) (53) (84) (68) Taxes (90) (103) (102) (93) (78) (68) (40) (43) (40) Other Cash Flow Item Expense (75
Slide 9: December STRAP: Adj. EBITDA YoY Walk
December STRAP: Adj. EBITDA YoY Walk ($ in millions) Adj. EBITDA Walk 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E BoP Adj. EBITDA $583 $436 $490 $566 $651 FX 3 3 Volume @ VC% (93) 114 112 137 45 Pricing (17) (60) (67) (74) (76) Productivity Net of Mix 11 64 89 75 97 Inflation (15) (25) (31) (34) (37) RD&E Investm
Slide 10: Summary Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement – Yearly
Summary Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement – Yearly ($ in millions) Income Statement Cash Flow Statement 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E (USDM, except per share data) FY FY FY FY FY FY (USDM, except per share data) FY FY Q1 Q2-Q4 FY FY FY Total Vol
Slide 11: PF Balance Sheet post emergence
PF Balance Sheet post emergence subject to appropriate accounting and legal review Summary Balance Sheet ($ in millions) (1) Balance Sheet 2019A 2020 by Quarter 2021 by Quarter 2022E 2023E 2024E (USDM, except per share data) FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Emer. Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FY FY Cash and cash equivalents 187 254
Slide 12: Appendix
Appendix ADVANCING MOTION
Slide 13: Summary Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement – Quarterly
Summary Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement – Quarterly ($ in millions) Income Statement Cash Flow Statement 2020 by Quarter 2021 by Quarter 2020 by Quarter 2021 by Quarter (USDM, except per share data) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (USDM, except per share data) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Emer. Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Vo
Slide 14: Adj. EBITDA Walkdown
Adj. EBITDA Walkdown ($ in millions) Adj. EBITDA 2019A 2020 by Quarter 2021 by Quarter 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E (USDM, except per share data) FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FY FY FY FY GAAP Net Income $313 $52 ($9) $11 $3 ($54) $66 $60 $68 $57 $140 $310 $378 $398 (+) Tax Expense (Benefit) 33 1 1
Slide 15: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements, other than statements of fact, that address activities, events or developments that we or our management intend, ex
Slide 16: Disclosure
Disclosure This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect, when made, the Company's current estimates with respect to current events, certain investments and financial performance. Such forward- looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and factors relating to t
Slide 17: Copyrights Copyrights
Copyrights © 2020 Garrett Motion Inc.Copyrights © 2020 Garrett Motion Inc.