Sbi Funds Management Limited · NSE:SBIFUNDS
Sbi Funds Management — Investor Presentation (April 2026)
47 slides from Sbi Funds Management's investor presentation, April 2026
Slide 1: Economy and Markets April 2026
ECONOMY AND MARKETS April 2026
Slide 2: Middle East conflict triggers a direct shock to global energy flows
Middle east conflict triggers a direct shock to global energy flows Middle East conflict began on 28th February 2026 • On February 28, 2026, hostilities erupted in West Asia, rapidly escalating across multiple Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. • In response, Iran unilaterally halted most sea
Slide 3: Energy supply shock drives a sharp surge in commodity prices
Energy supply shock drives a sharp surge in commodity prices Commodities rise in 2026; YTD Bloomberg commodity index has Year-to-date, energy and related commodities have risen sharply risen by 24% Energy commodities drive higher commodity prices m-o-m; Metals see some moderation from Feb 2026 highs
Slide 4: Energy inflation resets global interest rate expectations
Energy inflation resets global interest rate expectations Market expects majority of the economies to hike interest rates in US Fed rate cuts gets eliminated in 2026 (now no rate cut is priced next six months in for 2026 vs. first rate cut in July 2026 previously) Central bank policy rate Market int
Slide 5: Global Financial Markets: Traditional hedges break down
Global Financial Markets: Traditional hedges break down Traditional hedges-bonds and gold- are failing simultaneously Bonds struggle as higher oil prices generate an inflationary impulse m-o-m change Brent 59.1 10 Year Gsec Yield (% mth end) Feb-26 Mar-26 (in bps) CRB Food Index 6.5 Developed market
Slide 6: Oil price history shows how demand, supply and inventories interact
Oil price history shows how demand, supply and inventories interact Brent price 6 mths Peak/bottom price Duration (in Period / Episode Price Movement (Rise/Fall) Magnitude / Direction Why Price Rose / Fell Start Date prior to the start of Oil during the Oil Shock/ months) Shock / Collapse Collapse •
Slide 7: Strait of Hormuz closure represents a rare and concentrated supply shock
Strait of hormuz closure represents a rare and concentrated supply shock • The history of global oil prices since the early 1970s shows a pattern of sharp rises, dramatic collapses, and intermittent periods of stability, each shaped by a combination of demand forces, supply disruptions, and shifting
Slide 8: India's heavy energy import dependence amplifies vulnerability
India’s heavy energy import dependence amplifies vulnerability India imports 89% of its crude oil requirement and half of its LNG For India, the consequences of this disruption are particularly requirement significant. India imports 89% of its crude oil requirements, and the Gulf region remains its
Slide 9: India's trade and fertilizer links deepen exposure to the Middle East
India’s trade and fertilizer links deepen exposure to the middle east The Middle East is responsible for over 50% of India’s crude and Middle East accounts for 14% of India’s total exports related products imports Large portion of India’s exports of rice, aircrafts, gems and 34% of India’s total fer
Slide 10: India is a net commodity importer
India is a net commodity importer India remains the world’s second-largest fertilizer importer and Rising gas costs and fertilizer inflation could push the subsidy will continue to depend heavily on external supplies requirement upward 2,513 2023-24 (mn metric tonnes) Urea DAP MOP NPKs Total 3,000 1
Slide 11: Higher oil prices tighten India's balance of payments
Higher oil prices tighten India’s balance of payments Remittance inflows are also likely to be affected, as about 38% of The nascent improvement in FPI flows following the US-India trade deal total inward remittances originate from the Middle East has reversed, with US$8 billion in net outflows as o
Slide 12: BoP could record a deficit for the third consecutive year in FY27
BoP could record a deficit for the third consecutive year in FY27; Rupee on a weaker footing India’s balance-of-payments position has weakened materially due Interest rate differential narrows resulting in muted ECB flows and to near-zero net FDI inflows slower NRI deposit growth 50 43 44 10.00 36 3
Slide 13: Dollar strength drives broad currency depreciation
Dollar strength drives broad currency depreciation DXY strengthens by 3% m-o-m in March 2026 to ~100 Majority of developed and emerging market currencies depreciate 2.4 114 4 % change (m-o-m) Emerging Developed 2 economies economies 110 0 -2 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -4 -1.8 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 106 -2.7 -3.4 -3.6 -
Slide 14: Growth outlook: Slowdown as supply constraints dominate
Growth outlook: Slowdown as supply constraints dominate • We expect real GDP growth to moderate from an estimated 7.8% y-o-y in FY26 to 6.5% in FY27, while nominal GDP is likely to rise from roughly 9% in FY26 to 12–13% in FY27, driven by higher WPI inflation. • The slowdown will not be solely due t
Slide 15: Surge in energy costs to sharply lift wholesale inflation
Surge in energy costs to sharply lift wholesale inflation; WPI could potentially touch 8-10% WPI Energy (ex electricity) could rise to 30% y-o-y vs. -5% Energy and the energy sensitive items have 28% weight in WPI currently basket; crude sensitive items could start depicting 10% inflation Higher WPI
Slide 16: Consumer inflation impact relatively moderate
Consumer inflation impact relatively moderate as government and industry absorb cost pressures Global food price Index largely contained Petrol and diesel prices have stayed largely unchanged in India since May 2022 despite crude price volatility 700 130 140 Average of 4 metro cities 120 600 110 507
Slide 17: Monetary policy expectations change: A pause in April but rate hikes possible in FY27
Monetary policy expectations change: A pause in April but rate hikes possible in FY27 Repo rate cut by 125bps cumulatively since February 2025 policy • The Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at to 5.25% now 5.25% at its latest meeting in February 2026. The stance remains at neutr
Slide 18: Liquidity management becomes critical as external pressures rise
Liquidity management becomes critical as external pressures rise, expect continued OMO in FY27 Additional requirement for OMOs to keep durable liquidity at • An elevated Balance of Payments (BoP) deficit in FY27 could current levels strengthen the case for RBI conducting OMO purchases to keep liquid
Slide 19: Energy shock reshapes sectoral earnings and profitability
Energy shock reshapes sectoral earnings and profitability • Energy: Oil marketing firms will be materially impacted through losses on higher crude oil purchases, MTM losses on energy price volatility, higher shipping & insurance costs. There will be an balance sheet impact as well through a need for
Slide 20: Energy shock reshapes sectoral earnings and profitability
Energy shock reshapes sectoral earnings and profitability • Hotels & Restaurants: Higher costs on constrained fuel supplies, constrained demand on higher costs / lower tourism. • Automotive: Cost inflation on components and parts, potential shift in demand towards alternative fuel vehicles (towards
Slide 21: Equity Market
EQUITY MARKET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 22: Equity markets correct globally in March 2026
-18 -16 -12 -10 -14 -8 -6 -4 -2 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 KOREA -19.7 KOREA -15.5 PHILIPPINES -15.7 INDONESIA -13.9 INDONESIA -14.9 PAKISTAN -12.6 INDIA NIFTY -14.8 GERMANY -12.0 GERMANY -14.4 JAPAN -11.8 JAPAN -13.8 INDIA NIFTY -11.3 Source: Bloomberg, SBIFM Research PAKISTAN -12.9 PHILIPPINES -11.2 MSCI
Slide 23: Indian equity market snapshot: March 2026
Indian equity market snapshot: March 2026 Indian equity market performance in March 2026 (local currency YTD performance (local currency returns) returns -4 2.6 0.01 5 -4.2 -6 -4.9 0 -6.1 -8 -10 -5 -8.4 -8.8 -8.8 -8.9 -9.0 -4.3 -4.5 -4.6 -10 -9.7 -12 -10.5 -11.1 -15 -11.3 -11.4 -11.5 -11.5 -11.0 -11
Slide 24: Liquidity: FIIs turn net sellers in March 2026
Liquidity: FIIs turn net sellers in March 2026 after nascent signs of recovery in February FIIs see outflows in March DIIs support to Indian equity market 90 100 90 80 63 70 60 50 36 40 22 30 17 16 14 13 10 14 20 8 6 6 5 5 4 10 0 -10 -5 -5 -5 -20 2012 -11 2013 -13 2025 2008 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015
Slide 25: MF flows: SIP flows moderate m-o-m in February 2026
MF flows: SIP flows moderates m-o-m in February 2026 Equity inflows moderate in February 2026 compared to a month Debt inflow of INR 428bn in Feb’26 (vs. INR 26bn inflow in Q3FY26 ago and outflow of INR 11bn in Q2FY26) 5,586 1,894 2,177 1,603 6,000 3,000 1,383 1,078 5,000 2,000 3,029 2,880 753 2,500
Slide 26: Nifty EBITDA and PAT growth
10 30 40 20 50 0 -20 -10 20 40 60 80 0 -40 -20 100 120 Sep-14 6 Sep-14 5 Dec-14 2 Dec-14 -6 Mar-15 -5 Mar-15 -12 Jun-15 5 Jun-15 -2 Sep-15 1 Sep-15 0 Dec-15 5 Dec-15 -7 Mar-16 15 Mar-16 1 Jun-16 8 Jun-16 -3 Sep-16 11 Sep-16 -3 Dec-16 9 Dec-16 7 Mar-17 3 Mar-17 7 Jun-17 -7 Jun-17 -6 Sep-17 18 Sep-17
Slide 27: Earnings revisions fell in March
Earnings revisions fell in March Earnings Upgrades to downgrades ratio significantly fell in March In FY26, EPS projection sees a downgrade 90% -6.8 FY26 80% FY25 -3.3 70% Earnings upgrade -1.3 FY24 60% downgrade- % chg -4.9 FY23 50% 1.5 FY22 40% -2.4 FY21 30% -23.4 FY20 -12.6 FY19 20% FY18 -9.7 10%
Slide 28: Earnings projections ~9% in FY26: FY27 projections could see downgrades
Earnings projections ~9% in FY26: FY27 projections could see downgrades Earnings expected to recover in FY26 Sectoral breakup of NIFTY earnings outlook EPS Change 1,011 1,059 1,083 1,200 40 No. of FY2 FY21- FY22- FY23- FY24- FY25- FY26- FY27- FY25-28 1,000 Cos. 0-21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 (CAGR) 822 3
Slide 29: Equity valuations corrected both on absolute and yield spread terms
Equity valuations corrected both on absolute & yield spread terms Sensex trailing PE ratio stood at 20.8 in Mar’26 vs. 23.3 in Feb’26 Earnings yield to bond yield spread has corrected 34.0 Current : 20.8 4.0% Current : -2.21% 30.0 Average : 20.4 2.0% Average : -2.18% Percentile : 47% Percentile : 29
Slide 30: Polarization remains low, remains favorable towards large caps
Polarization remains low, remains favorable towards large caps Market capitalization/GDP expensive vs. history at 93rd percentile Mid caps and small caps: Market polarization remains favourable reading towards large caps 200 Current: 125 57% Current : 39.9% 55% Average : 47.5% Average: 79 53% 150 Pe
Slide 31: Equity market sentiment fell significantly
Equity market sentiment fell significantly Equity sentiment falls below zero Equity sentiment fell significantly & goes below zero 2.50 80% 100% 2.00 Zone of Complacency => SELL 80% Zone of Complacency => SELL 60% 1.50 60% 40% 1.00 R² = 0.3215 12m fwd returns 20% 40% 0.50 0.00 0% 20% Apr-09 May-15 D
Slide 32: Equity Outlook: Focus on large caps, bottom-up stock selection
Equity Outlook: Focus on large caps, bottom-up stock selection, and sectors resilient to margin pressure • Indian equities saw a sharp correction in March 2026 with both Nifty and Sensex falling by 11% and 11.5% month-on-month respectively. • Equity markets face valuation pressures. • Historically,
Slide 33: Fixed Income Market
FIXED INCOME MARKET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 34: Global Bond Market Snapshot: Global bond yields rise in March 2026
Global Bond Market Snapshot: Global bond yields rise in March 2026 Rising oil prices stoked inflation fears and pushed yields higher across both developed and emerging economies m-o-m change FY change 10 Year Gsec Yield (% mth end) 2024 end 2025 end Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 (in bps) (in bps) Developed m
Slide 35: Rates in India sees an upward movement too
Rates in India sees an upward movement too Interest rates in India have been rising across segment in 2026; This rise is especially visible in money market rates, shorter tenor government securities (G- sec) yields, and corporate bond yields m-o-m YTD change (in Rates (%) 2024 end 2025-end Jan-26 Fe
Slide 36: G-sec yields rise sharply in March 2026
G-sec yields rise sharply in March 2026, with acute pressure in the 2–4 year bucket G-Sec yields rallied during Jan-May 2025, but worsened there since post the June 2025 policy (impact of a tight demand supply and weaker rupee) Yield (%) 3 Month 6 month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Ye
Slide 37: Simultaneous expansion of private and government credit creates tight demand-supply
Simultaneous expansion of private and government credit creates tight demand-supply dynamic Visible steepening in G-sec yield curve in the last year Similarly corporate bond yield curve steepens with rising private sector credit 8.00 8.00 India GSec yield (%) 7.50 7.80 7.00 7.60 6.50 7.40 6.00 7.20
Slide 38: Increased CD issuances drive up CD spreads
Increased CD issuances drive up CD spreads Banks participation in SLR securities decline as incremental Certificate of Deposits (CD) issuances rise funds are directed towards loan growth 5,135 4,668 6,794 6,000 Incremental demand by Commercial Banks 7,500 Rs. billion 7,000 5,330 5,000 (Rs. Billion)
Slide 39: CPs and corporate bond issuances are tepid
CPs and Corporate bond issuances are tepid due to attractive bank loan rates vs. market rates Commercial Papers (CP) issuances are muted Corporate bond issuances moderate; Outstanding credit disbursed via Corporate Bond (NCDs) moderated from 15.5% y-o-y growth to 11.3% 4,762 4,831 4,429 5,500 Rs. bi
Slide 40: SDL supply rises; FY26 SDL gross issuances exceed budgeted estimate
SDL supply rises; FY26 SDL gross issuances exceed budgeted estimate SDL issuances elevated; FY26 Gross SDL issuances are 19% Yet, SDL spreads contained higher on a y-o-y basis 12.8 14 12.4 All states agg. Gross market 200 LTA since 2006: 55 bps 10 year avg. 56 bps 11.1 borrowings (Rs. trillion) 180
Slide 41: Banking system liquidity is tight due to FX outflows
Banking system liquidity is tight due to FX outflows despite massive liquidity infusion RBI provided massive liquidity support since December 2024 Durable liquidity remains low despite RBI liquidity measures due to increased intervention in FX market and CIC leakage Liquidity management measures by
Slide 42: Indian G-sec: Fundamentals, sentiments and valuation weakens
Indian G-sec: Fundamentals, sentiments and valuation weakens Historically energy price spikes are associated with rate hikes Fixed Income fundamental deteriorates: Rate hikes expected by market 9.50 140 8.50 120 100 7.50 80 6.50 60 5.50 40 4.50 20 3.50 0 Mar-22 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar
Slide 43: Indian G-sec valuations: neutral to marginally unattractive
Indian G-sec valuations: neutral to marginally unattractive G-sec spread vs. equity turns neutral Real rate turns positive 10year avg: 219 bps 800 Latest rank: 61 percentile 350 Latest: 181 bps (vs. 195 bps) 600 260 400 200 170 0 80 -200 -10 -400 -100 -600 May-14 May-12 May-16 Sep-17 May-18 May-20 M
Slide 44: FIIs turn net sellers of Indian government bonds in March 2026
FIIs turn net sellers of Indian government bonds in March 2026 India witnessed Debt outflows in March 2026 FII flows in EM bonds are muted despite healthy inflation adjusted returns; as risk premium vs. DM bonds is largely erased 10 year G-sec EM FII Debt inflow Real Rate (%, 12M FX yield 2024 2025
Slide 45: Debt Outlook: Cautious
Debt Outlook: Cautious • Interest rates in India have risen across segments—money markets, G secs, and corporate bonds—with a notable steepening of the yield curve. This is driven by the simultaneous expansion of private sector credit and government borrowing, creating a tight demand–supply backdrop
Slide 46: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any mutual fund units/securities. These views alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed
Slide 47: Contact Details
Contact Details SBI Funds Management Limited Call: 1800 425 5425 (A joint venture between SBI and AMUNDI) SMS: “SBIMF” to 7065611100 Corporate Office: 9th Floor, Crescenzo, Email: customer.delight@sbimf.com C-38 & 39, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai - 400 051 Visit us @ www.face
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