Slide 1: Updated TAC Schedule
File April 1, 2025 Updated TAC Schedule TAC 6: Wed. 17 July 2024: 10:30 am to 12:00 pm (PTZ) •Feedback from prior TAC (10 min.) •Load Forecast – AEG (80 min.) TAC 7: Wed. 21 Aug. 2024: 10:30 am to 12:00 pm (PTZ) •Feedback from prior TAC (10 min.) •Natural Gas Market Overview and Price Forecast (40 m
Slide 2: Avista Energy Natural Gas Forecasting
Avista Energy Natural Gas Forecasting Prepared for Avista Energy TAC Meeting July 2024 Confidentiality – The information contained in this presentation is proprietary and confidential. Use of this information is limited to the intended recipient and its employees and may not be disclosed to third pa
Slide 3: Background
Background AEG has worked with Avista for multiple Conservation Potential Assessments going back to 2010 As part of the CPA, AEG creates a baseline projection at the segments and end use level, which provides granular insight changes in individual technology classes and populations Now Avista is usi
Slide 4: Major Modeling Inputs and Sources
Major Modeling Inputs and Sources Avista foundational data Survey data showing Technical data on end- State and Federal Market trends and presence of equipment use equipment costs energy codes and effects and energy standards consumption Avista power sales by schedule Avista: Residential customer Re
Slide 5: Forecast Process
Forecast Process Market Characterization Run Baseline Projection • Segmentation (Annual) • End Use and Technology List • Customer Forecast • Allocate electric loads & calibrate • Stock Turnover • Purchase Decisions Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 4
Slide 6: Existing vs New Buildings
Existing vs New Buildings • Modeling tracks existing building stock separately from new code-compliant buildings • Buildings also undergo renovation at a rate consistent with the DOE’s National Energy Modeling System, converting them into code- compliant structures • Presence of equipment in new bui
Slide 7: All-Sector Natural Gas Projection By End Use
All-Sector Natural Gas Projection By End Use • A combination of electrification, building 45,000,000 codes, and natural efficiency cause overall 40,000,000 gas loads to decline by 7% across the forecast period 35,000,000 30,000,000 • Washington has a much stronger downward trend in isolation, offset
Slide 8: Washington Sector-Level Forecasts
Washington Sector-Level Forecasts • WA Residential declines 15.8% as residential space heat electrifies (or converts to dual-fuel systems) either in natural equipment replacement cycles or to comply with state energy code • Commercial declines for the same reason, however the decline is steeper as c
Slide 9: Idaho Sector-Level Forecasts
Idaho Sector-Level Forecasts • ID gas loads do not have the same downward pressure as WA. • While building shells improve in efficiency as older stock is renovated, customer growth continues to increase the use of natural gas in the forecast. Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 8
Slide 10: Oregon Sector-Level Forecasts
Oregon Sector-Level Forecasts • Oregon has relatively stable natural gas loads, as building stock improvements keep pace with modest customer growth and lead to reductions in overall gas use Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 9
Slide 11: Electrification Decision Modeling
Electrification Decision Modeling Washington Residential Gas Heating Market Transformation Space Heating Equipment Stock • Gas customers were modeled the same way as the electric market, with 100% the option to replace existing gas space or water heating equipment with 90% Air-Source Heat Pump (ENER
Slide 12: Thank You.
Thank You. Phone: 631-434-1414