Slide 1: US LNG Exports at Risk: Potential Unwinding of Sanctions on Russian Natural Gas
US LNG Exports at Risk: Potential Unwinding of Sanctions on Russian Natural Gas Report by Commodity Insights May 2025 © 2025 S&P Glo bal. Per mission to re print o r d istribute any con ten t from this presentation require s the prior written app roval o f S&P Glo bal.
Slide 2: Contents
Contents Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas LNG Supply Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas
Slide 3: S&P Global Study Objectives and Acknowledgements
Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings S&P Global Study Objectives and Acknowledgements S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence, supporting governments, S&P Global Project Leadership Team businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so th
Slide 4: New US LNG investment is disproportionately impacted by Russian gas supply scenarios
Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings New US LNG investment is disproportionately impacted by Russian gas supply scenarios, with $120 billion in direct expenditures at risk in the ‘Opening the Taps’ Scenario With the curtailment of Russian gas supply, Europe pivoted toward US LNG to help mee
Slide 5: Contents
Contents Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas LNG Supply Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas & LNG Supply Winners Lose
Slide 6: Historically, Europe relied heavily on Russian gas, supplying close to half of imports
Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Historically, Europe relied heavily on Russian gas, supplying close to half of European gas imports pre-2022 and providing substantial annual volume flexibility European1 Gas Supply History bcf/d Russia supplied around 30% total
Slide 7: Curtailments of Russian pipeline gas eroded 25% of total European gas supply since 2022
Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Curtailments of Russian pipeline gas eroded 25% of total European gas supply since 2022 with flexible US LNG serving as the primary supply response European Gas Supply: Change in Supply 2021 vs. 2024 bcf/d -19% Russian pipeline s
Slide 8: The inability of supply to respond further led to a rapid tightening of the European gas balance
Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall The inability of supply to respond further led to a rapid tightening of the European gas balance – resulting high prices have driven industry and power-led demand retrenchment European Gas Demand: Change in Demand 2021 - 2024 bcf
Slide 9: Europe has responded by significantly increasing LNG import regasification capacity
Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Europe has responded by significantly increasing LNG import regasification capacity with the region infrastructure-ready to import even greater levels of LNG supply European Gas Infrastructure: LNG Terminals and Import Pipelines
Slide 10: Contents
Contents Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas & LNG Suppl
Slide 11: Europe's demand for gas in the industrial and power sectors is expected to recover
Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Supply Europe’s demand for gas in the industrial and power sectors is expected to recover through the end of this decade; a policy rollback offers upside for gas long-term European Gas Demand by Sector ‘Current Trend’ Scenario bcf/d 50 Ongoing climate policy
Slide 12: Europe is heavily reliant on uncontracted LNG volumes
Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Supply Europe is heavily reliant on “uncontracted” LNG volumes, these volumes are sourced disproportionately from US LNG European Natural Gas Uncontracted Supply Gap ‘Current Trend’ Scenario bcf/d Russian pipeline gas makes up only 3% of 50 European climate
Slide 13: Prospects of either a return of Russian gas to Europe or further constraints on Russian LNG exports
Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Supply Prospects of either a return of Russian gas to Europe or further constraints on Russian LNG exports creates divergent scenarios with major implications for US LNG exporters Russian Pipeline Natural Gas Export to Europe Scenarios Current Trend Scenario
Slide 14: Contents
Contents Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas LNG Supply
Slide 15: In the 'Opening the Taps' Scenario, global response impacts US LNG with a 17 MMtpa drop
Winners & Losers: Global Response and Implications for US LNG Growth In the ‘Opening the Taps’ Scenario with most incremental supply landing in Europe, the global response disproportionately impacts US LNG with a 17 MMtpa drop in exports Global Response: ‘Opening the Taps’ Scenario vs. ‘Current Tren
Slide 16: In the 'Phasing Down' Scenario, further sanctions facilitate 12 MMtpa of additional US LNG
Winners & Losers: Global Response and Implications for US LNG Growth In the ‘Phasing Down’ Scenario, further sanctions of Russian LNG facilitates 12 MMtpa of additional US LNG to bridge the supply gap in Europe Global Response: ‘Phasing Down’ Scenario vs. ‘Current Trend’ Scenario – Yearly Average 20
Slide 17: US LNG FIDs are greatly affected by changes in Russian exports
Winners & Losers: Global Response and Implications for US LNG Growth US LNG FIDs are greatly affected by changes in Russian exports; although US LNG can be developed quickly, it is not cost-competitive with the Middle East Global LNG FID Outlook (2025-27) by Scenario MMtpa of LNG US Middle East RoW
Slide 18: $120 billion in US LNG value chain direct expenditure is at risk
Winners & Losers: Global Response and Implications for US LNG Growth $120 billion in US LNG value chain direct expenditure is at risk in an ‘Opening the Taps’ scenario relative to the ‘Phasing Down’ Russia gas supply scenario US LNG Liquefaction project FIDs by Scenario (2025-27)1 US LNG Value Chain
Slide 19: Contents
Contents Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas LNG Supply
Slide 20: Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways Role of Russia as key supplier of gas to Europe has been upended: resolution is critical to investment decisions taken in the next two years – an estimated 29 MMtpa in US LNG FIDs and an associated nearly $120 billion in US LNG value chain direct expenditure is at risk with a return of
Slide 21: Contents
Contents Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Objectives, Acknowledgements and Key Findings Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Upending the Balance: Europe in an Era of Russian Gas Supply Shortfall Back to the Future: Scenarios for Russian Gas LNG Supply
Slide 22: Integrated energy market modelling process
Appendix – Detailed Methodology Our best-in-industry integrated energy market modelling process is connected to granular gas and power models for credible detailed results and inputs for later Phases Electric Sector coal Transformation Sector Demand ENVISAGE includes forecasts for 132 countries dema
Slide 23: Upstream leverages inputs and bespoke models to generate US forecasts
Appendix – Detailed Methodology Upstream leverages inputs and bespoke models to generate US market-based forecasts including required iterations for specific scenarios Inputs Completion rate, well quality, drilling days, lateral length, productivity trends, DUCs, inventory Crude Oil Crude Oil Play M
Slide 24: Modelling: Russia scenarios and US LNG expenditure impact estimation methodology
Appendix – Detailed Methodology S&P Global Russia Scenarios US LNG Expenditure Impact Estimation Methodology S&P Global ‘Current ‘Opening the Taps’ and US LNG Direct Value Outputs Trend’ Scenario Chain Expenditure for Inputs / ‘Phasing Down’ Global Gas Demand Global LT LNG Market US Project FIDs by
Slide 25: Regional definitions: Europe
Appendix – Regional Definitions For the context of this report, ‘Europe’ refers to the 27 European Union member states, plus the United Kingdom Report Market Grouping Countries Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Europe Hungary, I
Slide 26: Scenario Results: Russia European pipeline and LNG export scenarios
Appendix – Scenario Results Russia European pipeline and LNG export scenarios: US LNG projects and future export volumes are assumed to be strongly sensitive to Russian output ‘Current Trend’ (bcf/d) 2026 2030 2035 2040 Russian pipeline to Europe 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 Current Trend Scenario • Russian pipe
Slide 27: Long-term LNG contracts and the EU Methane Emissions Regulation
Appendix – Europe’s Supply Outlook, Contracting Status and Scenarios for Russian Gas Long-term LNG contracts, particularly US sourced gas, are potentially among European gas sources most challenged with the new EU Methane Emissions Regulation (MER) European Natural Gas Uncontracted Supply Gap ‘Curre
Slide 28: Disclaimer
(where “Client” is the legal entity for which this Proposal was prepared and addressed) The contents of this Proposal are private and confidential. S&P Global Commodity Insights, a division of S&P Global Inc. (“SPGCI”) is the owner of the copyright of this document and its contents, including strate
Slide 29: S&P Global
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