Public Service Company Of New Mexico · OTC:PNMXO
Public Service Company Of New Mexico — Corporate Update (April 2008)
30 slides from Public Service Company Of New Mexico's corporate update, Apr 30, 2008
Slide 1: Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Electric Integrated Resource Plan Eleventh Public Involvement Meeting April 30, 2008 PNM Alvarado Square 1
Slide 2: Welcome & Introductions
Welcome & Introductions Evelin Wheeler Director, Integrated Resource Planning 2
Slide 3: Project Schedule
Project Schedule Sensitivity and Scenario Modeling • Results Presentation • Break • Discussion 3
Slide 4: EE Update
EE Update Steve Bean Manager, Energy Efficiency Programs 4
Slide 5: Energy Efficiency Update
Energy Efficiency Update 1. Residential Lighting: > 500,000 CFLS 2. Refrigerator Recycling: > 2,800 3. Comm. Lighting: ~10,000 units, ~$35K rebates 4. Energy Star Homes: 36 rebates, many more in process 5. School CFL Exchange (Sierra Club): projecting 40,000 bulbs 6. Power Saver (Res. DR): >7,500 un
Slide 6: Itron Study Update
6 Capacity Cost in $/kW $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 Original Itron Avoided Cost 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 Comparison of Avoided Cost 27 Updated Avoided Cost 20 28 20 2
Slide 7: Energy Efficiency Programs
Energy Efficiency Programs Cost Curve of Energy Efficiency Programs $500.0 $450.0 Demand Energy Cost MW GWh $Millions Approved 9.2 84.0 $ 13.7 Energy Efficiency Program Cost in $Millions $400.0 Base 39.8 240.3 $ 44.1 Advanced 174.2 1288.3 $ 221.4 $350.0 Maximum 298 1638.1 $ 327.4 Hi Maximum 344.2 18
Slide 8: Sensitivity & Scenario Results
Sensitivity & Scenario Results Cindy Bothwell Manager, Integrated Resource Planning 8
Slide 9: Modeled Scenarios
Modeled 23 Scenarios • Scenarios varied by: – Load – Natural Gas Price – CO2 Pricing – Resource Restrictions • Each Scenario assumed: – Existing resources – Contracted resources – No off-system sales 9
Slide 10: General Trends in Results
General Trends in Results • Distributed Solar Program Expanded • Maximum Energy Efficiency • Luna and Lordsburg • Lots of gas, including run for baseload • Palo Verde Lease Acquisition • Renewables, except solar • Baseload met w/ EE and CC • No Major Transmission • High load – new nuclear 10 • Least
Slide 11: Portfolio with Least Cost
Portfolio with Least Cost Median Conditions – Mid Forecasts NPV $8.42 billion CO2 159 million metric tons New Installed Capacity 24% Energy Efficiency Loss of Load 66 hours 9% Renewable 67% Natural Gas • 5 MW – distributed solar • Maximum Energy Efficiency – 289 MW by 2027 • 2009 – Luna & Lordsburg
Slide 12: Portfolio with Least CO2
Portfolio with Least CO2 Median Conditions – Mid Forecasts NPV $8.72 billion New Installed Capacity CO2 152 million metric tons 24% Energy Efficiency Loss of Load 75 hours 27% Renewable 47% Natural Gas • 5 MW – distributed solar 2% Nuclear • Maximum Energy Efficiency – 289 MW by 2027 • 2009 – Luna &
Slide 13: Portfolios with Least CO2
Portfolios with Least CO2 Generalizations: • Add more Renewables • Favor Wind and Solar Hybrid (gas) • Increase Cost • Reduce Reliability 13
Slide 14: Most Reliable Portfolio
Most Reliable Portfolio Median Conditions – Mid Forecasts NPV $8.53 billion New Installed Capacity CO2 158 million metric tons 12% Energy Efficiency 18% Renewable Loss of Load 52 hours 70% Natural Gas • 5 MW – distributed solar • Advanced Energy Efficiency – 165 MW by 2027 • 2009 – Luna & Lordsburg
Slide 15: Portfolios w/ Highest Reliability
Portfolios w/ Highest Reliability Generalizations: • Bias for small units • Add more Renewables, smaller units • Favor Geothermal & Biomass • Increase Cost • Increase Reserve Margin • Does not favor Maximum Energy Efficiency 15
Slide 16: Portfolio Sensitivity to Load
Portfolio Sensitivity to Load Relative to mid load forecast: – Low load cases meet load growth primarily with Energy Efficiency – High load cases prefer nuclear and combined cycle – Increasing load factor doesn’t change options much – Decreasing load factor favors gas peaking and solar 16
Slide 17: Portfolio Sensitivity to Load
Portfolio Sensitivity to Load Low + LF Mid - LF High Installed MW 327.5 1202 1206.5 1494 2261.5 % Energy Efficiency 50% 24% 24% 20% 13% % Renewable 4% 10% 9% 15% 6% % Natural Gas 46% 66% 67% 65% 63% % Nuclear 18% 17
Slide 18: Portfolio Sensitivity to Gas Price
Portfolio Sensitivity to Gas Price Relative to the mid gas price: – Lower gas prices replace least cost renewables, like wind, with more gas – Higher gas prices do not change build decisions but NPV increases ~ 5% Low Mid High Installed MW 1114 1206.5 1214 NPV (in Billions) $ 7.85 $ 8.42 $ 8.84 % En
Slide 19: Portfolio Sensitivity to CO2 Prices
Portfolio Sensitivity to CO2 Prices Relative to $20/metric ton: – No significant changes to portfolios based on CO2 pricing. – No change to coal dispatch – Impacts to NPV based on pricing $8 $20 $40 $53 Installed MW 1206.5 1206.5 1214 1239 NPV (in Billions) $ 7.49 $ 8.42 $ 9.95 $ 10.93 % Energy Effi
Slide 20: No New Nuclear
No New Nuclear • Only Primarily Relevant in the High Load Cases • If no nuclear, least cost is Pulverized Coal (even with $53 CO2) 20
Slide 21: Retire San Juan – 240 MW
Retire San Juan – 240 MW • Replaces with Nuclear 21
Slide 22: New Coal with CCS
New Coal with CCS • Only Primarily Relevant in the High Load Cases • Nuclear 22
Slide 23: All Renewables and DSM
All Renewables and DSM – Install maximum amounts of restricted renewables – Fills with solar hybrid – Increases cost ~$ 400 Million – Decreases reliability ~ 300 hours (440%) 23
Slide 24: Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency HB 305 Advanced Maximum 2014 5.0% 4.3% 5.2% 2020 10.0% 9.5% 12.0% 2027 15.7% 19.9% • Max Energy Efficiency is lowest CO2 • Base Energy Efficiency is most reliable 24
Slide 25: Energy Efficiency Impact
Energy Efficiency Impact Approved EE Base EE Adv EE Max EE High Max (2027) 9.2 MW 39.8 MW 174.2 MW 298.0 MW 344.0 MW (2027) 84 GWh 240.3 GWh 1288.3 GWh 1638.1 GWh 1864.2 GWh ~/yr exp. $4.6 M (3yr) $ 2.2 M $ 11.1 M $16.4 M $29.2 M 2008 Photovoltaic DG Photovoltaic DG Photovoltaic DG Photovoltaic DG P
Slide 26: RPS Compliance
RPS Compliance • RPS Compliance is not least cost • Least cost renewables to meet RPS result in Solar and DG diversity shortage. • Solar exceeds the Rate Impact (existing and proposed) • For solar to be least cost, somewhere in the range of 7¢-10¢/kWh 26
Slide 27: Proposed Most Cost Effective Portfolio
Proposed Most Cost Effective Portfolio Least Cost Most Cost Effective NPV % diff $8,421 Million $8,742 Million 3.8% RPS (quantity) & CO2 % diff 158 Million tonnes 146 Million tonnes -7.6% HB 305 compliant, L of Load 66.3 hours 233.5 hours % diff 252% reliable 2008 Maximum EE Advanced EE 2009 Photovo
Slide 28: Break
Lunch Return at 1:15 28 A personal | commitment to New Mexico ®
Slide 29: Discussion
Discussion Randy Gunn Principal, Summit Blue Consulting 29
Slide 30: Project Schedule
Project Schedule • Sensitivity and Scenario Modeling Results • May Meeting to Discuss Monte Carlo • Draft Final Report • Before end of May • PNM will solicit comments in writing • Meet in June to discuss comments • File IRP Report before July 16, 2008 30
Public Service Company of New Mexico — Corporate Update (April 2008) on 6ix