Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST
Vistra — Q3 2023 Earnings Presentation
51 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, Nov 7, 2023
Slide 1: Third Quarter 2023 Results
Third Quarter 2023 Results Nov. 7, 2023 RESULTS
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda I. Welcome and Safe Harbor Meagan Horn, Vice President of Investor Relations II. Q3 2023 Highlights Jim Burke, President & Chief Executive Officer III. Q3 2023 Finance Update Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023 3
Slide 4: Q3 2023 Highlights
Q3 2023 Highlights Jim Burke President & Chief Executive Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023 4
Slide 5: Continued Execution Against our Four Strategic Priorities
Continued Execution Against our Four Strategic Priorities Long-Term, Attractive Earnings Significant and Consistent Profile through the Integrated Shareholder Return of Capital Business Model Operational performance and market opportunities are driving Consistent execution on upsized $7.75 billion c
Slide 6: Integrated Generation and Retail Platform
Integrated Generation and Retail Platform Vistra achieves exceptional operational performance in a variety of weather and market conditions with its integrated model featuring a long-generation position partnered with its retail businesses ERCOT Monthly Peak Hourly Loads & Energy, 2021-2023 (June-Se
Slide 7: 2023 Results and Expectations
2023 Results and Expectations Q3 2023 Financial Results Raising 2023 Vistra Standalone Guidance Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Adj. EBITDA1 $1,613 Increased / Initial Prior Narrowed Narrowed Guidance Guidance Guidance Q3 2023 Highlights Adj. EBITDA1 $3,400 - $4,000 $
Slide 8: Looking Forward to 2024
Looking Forward to 2024 Key Trends for 2024 Ongoing Operations ($ millions) ❑ Continued customer-focused activities – acquisition, retention and service driving strong retail results Adj. EBITDA2 $3,700 - $4,100 ❑ Reliable, diverse, flexible, and well-maintained generation fleet Adj. FCFbG2 $1,900 -
Slide 9: Transformative Energy Harbor Acquisition - Update
Transformative Energy Harbor Acquisition - Update TRANSACTION Announced March 6, 2023 RECAP Will combine Energy Harbor’s nuclear (4 GW) and retail businesses with Vistra’s nuclear (2.4 GW) and retail Adj. EBITDA1 Midpoint Opportunities businesses and certain Vistra Zero renewables and storage projec
Slide 10: Q3 2023 Finance Update
Q3 2023 Finance Update Kris Moldovan Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023 10
Slide 11: Q3 2023 Financial Results
Q3 2023 Financial Results Generation and Retail each out performed year-over-year in third quarter 2023 ONGOING OPERATIONS ADJ. EBITDA1 Generation3 ($ millions) Q3 2023 is $398 million favorable as compared to Q3 2022, primarily driven by: 3400 $3,174 ✓ strong results in all regions throughout the c
Slide 12: Capital Allocation Update
Capital Allocation Update1 Share • Executed ~$3.26 billion from Nov. 2021 through Nov. 2, 2023, including ~$1 billion from Jan. 2023 through Nov. 2, Repurchase 2023 Share count of ~357.5 million as of Nov. 2, 2023; ~26% reduction since program was announced Program • • Targeting $300 million in divi
Slide 13: Market Curves and Hedge Position Update
Market Curves and Hedge Position Update Vistra’s comprehensive hedging program results in a more stable earnings profile and provides opportunities to lock-in significant gross margin Vistra Standalone Expected generation is ~90% hedged for 2023 - 20251 ✓ 2023 ~99% hedged (balance of year) ✓ 2024 ~9
Slide 14: Initiating 2024 Vistra Standalone Guidance – Detail
Initiating 2024 Vistra Standalone Guidance – Detail 2024E Adj. EBITDA1 Guidance ($ millions) Generation (including Texas, East, West, Sunset, Corp/Other)2 $2,8253 Retail $1,075 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA Guidance Range $3,700 - $4,100 Asset Closure Segment $(95) Consolidated Adj. EBITDA $3,805 2
Slide 15: Appendix
Appendix Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023
Slide 16: Corporate Debt Profile
Corporate Debt Profile A strong balance sheet is core to Vistra’s strategy. Accordingly, Vistra remains committed to a long-term net leverage (excluding any non-recourse debt at Vistra Zero) of less than 3x ($ millions) Q3 2023 Funded Revolving Credit Facility and Commodity Linked RCF $0 Term Loan B
Slide 17: Select Debt Balances
Select Debt Balances Funded Debt Tranches As of September 30, 20231 ($ millions) Issuer Series Principal Outstanding Secured Debt Vistra Operations Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2025 $2,493 Vistra Operations 4.875% Senior Secured Notes due May 2024 400 Vistra Operations 3.550% Senior Sec
Slide 18: Q3 2023 Retail Metrics
Q3 2023 Retail Metrics Highlights Retail Volume All markets (electric volumes in TWh) • Strong performance in Texas: ✓ Well positioned as a result of our core capabilities and diverse 30.6 28.4 brand and channel strategies 2.1 2.6 ✓ Strong residential performance through differentiated product offer
Slide 19: Q3 2023 Generation Metrics
Q3 2023 Generation Metrics TOTAL GENERATION1 CAPACITY FACTOR (CCGT) TWhs Q3 2022 Q3 2023 YTD 2022 YTD 2023 % Q3 2022 Q3 2023 YTD 2022 YTD 2023 TEXAS 24.5 27.8 59.7 65.8 TEXAS 70% 77% 49% 57% EAST 15.2 17.0 40.9 45.5 EAST 63% 69% 57% 63% WEST 1.4 1.4 3.5 3.7 WEST 65% 65% 52% 56% SUNSET 5.8 5.1 16.3 1
Slide 20: Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures Projected Capital Expenditures1 ($ millions) 2023E 2024E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 $745 $727 Nuclear Fuel 165 149 Non-Recurring4 9 -- Solar & Energy Storage Development 587 745 Other Growth5 139 74 Total Capital Expenditures $1,645 $1,695 Non-Recurring4 (9) -- Solar & Ener
Slide 21: Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities
Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities Effective: 9/30/2023 Balance of 2023 2024 TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 11 6 18 48 25 73 % Hedged 99% 100% 100% 98% 90% 95% Net Position 0 (0) (0) 1 3 4 Sensitivity to Po
Slide 22: Market Pricing
Market Pricing Effective: 9/30/2023 Oct-Dec'23 2024 Oct-Dec'23 2024 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads ($/mwhr) ERCOT North Hub $37.57 $52.29 Approx. Contrib ution ERCOT West Hub $37.79 $50.94 ERCOT PJM AD Hub $39.20 $43.95 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $15.81 $26.33 PJM Ni Hub $33.30 $39.0
Slide 23: NE/NY and CAISO Market Curves
NE/NY and CAISO Market Curves Curves as of April 29, 2022 and Nov. 2, 2023. Spark spreads calculated using an assumed heat rate of 7.2 mmbtu/MWh with $2.50 variable O&M (VOM) costs (market power price –(7.2 x gas price + VOM)). Market power price weighted as NENY: 75% Mass Hub, 25% NY Zone A. Gas pr
Slide 24: Capacity Positions
Capacity Positions Effective: 9/30/2023 Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price PJM1 $/mw-day CAISO RTO 2022/2023 3,332 $47.29 2023 1,483 2023/2024 3,296 $35.52 WEST 2024 1,770 2024/2025 3,156 $31.91 2025 1,610 2025/2026 400 $70.40 2026 1,100 Com
Slide 25: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,596 Odessa Odessa, TX E
Slide 26: Asset Fleet Details (cont'd)
Asset Fleet Details (cont’d) Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543 Lake Road Dayville, CT ISO-NE C
Slide 27: Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals
Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023 27
Slide 28: Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility
Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase III of the Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility came online June 2023 and brought the site's total energy storage capacity to 750MW / 3,000MWh Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023 28
Slide 29: Leveraging our existing sites - Vistra Zero Portfolio
Leveraging our existing sites - Vistra Zero Portfolio Disciplined growth of our clean energy portfolio, Vistra Zero, with a focus on diversified generation sources, markets and revenue sources. DeCordova Energy Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Storage Facility 260 MW/260 MWh 750 MW/3,000 MWh 350
Slide 30: Vistra Zero Portfolio
Vistra Zero Portfolio ~3,750 MW of zero-carbon generation currently online, including 2,400 MW of nuclear generation at Comanche Peak facility; named projects listed below reflect near-term development opportunities Capacity Asset Location ISO Status In-Service Year2 (MW) 1 NUCLEAR 2,400 MW Nuclear
Slide 31: Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship
Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship Vistra’s green-focused targets emphasize its sustainability transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS1 PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG Emissions ~3,750 MW2 60% by (in MMtCO2e) of zero-carbon generat
Slide 32: Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance
Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion • Oversight of Vistra’s ESG initiatives is governed by the full Vistra board, with oversight of subject matter-spec
Slide 33: Energy Harbor Acquisition – Announced March 6, 2023
Energy Harbor Acquisition – Announced March 6, 2023 VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023 33
Slide 34: Highlights
Highlights Vision Tradition Leading Zero Carbon Generation and Retail Integrated Platform: “Vistra Vision” • Transaction will combine Energy Harbor’s nuclear and retail businesses with Vistra’s nuclear and retail businesses and certain Vistra Zero renewables and storage projects under a newly-formed
Slide 35: Simplified Pro Forma Structure and Key Transaction Terms
Simplified Pro Forma Structure and Key Transaction Terms Transaction Structure Shareholders • Energy Harbor will merge into a subsidiary of Vistra Vision • Vistra will own a controlling 85% ownership interest in Vistra Vision; Nuveen and Avenue Capital will own the remaining 15% Vistra • Structure p
Slide 36: Energy Harbor Overview
Energy Harbor Overview Energy Harbor is an integrated, nuclear generation-focused power company that owns / operates three nuclear plants in PJM as well as a retail power platform in PJM / MISO 908 939 Capacity (MW) 4,048 MW Beaver Valley 1 Perry 933 Beaver Valley 2 Davis-Besse WI 1,268 MI 2 PA 1.8
Slide 37: Combines Two Leading Nuclear Operators
Combines Two Leading Nuclear Operators Energy Harbor and Vistra have extensive experience in safely operating nuclear assets; combination is supported by a comprehensive multi-month diligence process with site visits and third-party assessments ▪ Vistra is currently the fourth largest owner of merch
Slide 38: Transaction Expected to Unlock Significant Synergies
Transaction Expected to Unlock Significant Synergies Vistra, together with its independent consultants, spent months conducting diligence on the Energy Harbor platform to identify areas for optimization Significant Transaction Synergies from Energy Harbor Combination ($M) $125 Demonstrated Track-Rec
Slide 39: Pro Forma Vistra Vision Fleet Asset Details
Pro Forma Vistra Vision Fleet Asset Details Asset Location ISO Capacity (MW)1 Status In-Service Year2 NUCLEAR Comanche Peak Glen Rose, TX ERCOT 2,400 Online 1990 Beaver Valley I & II Shippingport, PA PJM 1,872 Online 1976 / 1987 Perry Perry, Ohio PJM 1,268 Online 1986 Davis-Besse Oak Harbor, Ohio PJ
Slide 40: Scaled Pro Forma Clean Generation Footprint
Scaled Pro Forma Clean Generation Footprint Projected Merchant Nuclear Net Generation for 2023 (TWh)1 Vistra previously ranked #4 with 20 TWh prior to the transaction 169 53 20 2 30 19 18 16 9 33 CEG EH PEG TLN NEE D NRG Projected U.S. Clean Net Generation for 2023 (TWh)1 174 123 3 Vistra previously
Slide 41: Increases Zero-Carbon Generation Baseload Capacity
Increases Zero-Carbon Generation Baseload Capacity Consolidated Operating & Under Vision Development by Technology (GW) 6% 1% 6% 1% Gas Renewables 7% 28% 15% Coal Nuclear Oil 22% 8.9 GW 41.8 GW 37.8 GW 4.0 GW 58% 64% 20% 72% 100% Operating & Under Development by Geography (GW) ERCOT ISO-NE 5% 3% 4%
Slide 42: Nuclear PTC Overview
Nuclear PTC Overview Nuclear assets benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC), which creates revenue stability during periods of lower power prices Illustrative Revenue Support PTC Mechanism ($/MWh) $53.31 (2032) • The nuclear PTC is a tax credit that provi
Slide 43: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2023 43
Slide 44: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2023 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2023 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2023 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp and Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net i
Slide 45: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2023 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2023 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2023 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp and Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net in
Slide 46: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2022 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp and Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net i
Slide 47: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2022 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp and Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net in
Slide 48: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2023 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 1,860 1,960 (70) 30 1,790 1,990 Income tax expense 540 590 0 0 540 590 I
Slide 49: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2023 GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1 Regulation G Table for Raised and Narrowed 2023 Guidance prepared as of November 7, 2023. (a) Includes unrealized (gain) / loss on interest rate swaps of $(56
Slide 50: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2024 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Vistra Operations Asset Closure Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 1,790 2,090 (140) (40) 1,650 2,050 Income tax expense 500 600 0 0 500 60
Slide 51: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2024 GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1 Regulation G Table for Initiated 2024 Guidance prepared as of November 7, 2023; excludes any potential contributions Energy Harbor’s performance (a) Includes