Upstart Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ:UPST

Upstart — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation

34 slides from Upstart's earnings presentation, May 6, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Q1 2025 earnings

    “Upstart Q1 2025 earnings May 6, 2025

  2. Slide 2: Forward looking statements

    Forward looking statements This presentation contains “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including but not limited to, information or predictions concerning our

  3. Slide 3: Results and outlook

    Results and outlook 3

  4. Slide 4: Q1'25 results: growth with improved profitability

    Q1’25 results: growth with improved profitability Focused execution against our 2025 priorities Originations: $2.1B Total Revenue: $213M GAAP Net Loss: ($2M) Adj. EBITDA: $43M +89% YoY +67% YoY Near breakeven 20% margin Note: Originations refers to Transaction Volume, Dollars. 4

  5. Slide 5: Transaction Volume, Dollars

    Transaction Volume, Dollars ($M) Q1’25 originations $2.1B +89% YoY YoY Growth: +13% -6% +30% +68% +89% 5

  6. Slide 6: Loan conversion funnel

    Loan conversion funnel Q1’25 loans: 241K 19.1% Conversion Rate Transaction volume, # of loans Rate inquiries not filled 6

  7. Slide 7: Total Revenue ($M)

    Total Revenue ($M) Q1’25 Revenue: $213M +67% YoY Platform & referral fees Servicing & other fees Net interest income & fair value adj. YoY Growth: +24% -6% +20% +56% +67% 7

  8. Slide 8: Contribution Profit ($M)

    Contribution Profit ($M) Q1’25 Contribution: $102M 55% Contribution Margin Reflects faster expansion into super-prime and new products than anticipated. Contribution Margin: 59% 58% 61% 61% 55% 8

  9. Slide 9: Adjusted EBITDA ($M)

    Adjusted EBITDA ($M) Q1’25 Adjusted EBITDA: $43M 20% Adj. EBITDA Margin Adj. EBITDA Margin: -16% -7% 1% 18% 20% 9

  10. Slide 10: Outlook

    Outlook Q2’25 FY 2025 Total Revenue $225 million $1.01 billion Revenue from fees, net $210 million $920 million Net interest income (loss) $15 million $90 million Contribution Margin 55% - Positive in 2H’25 and GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($10) million positive for full-year 2025 Non-GAAP Adjusted Net In

  11. Slide 11: Technology and product highlights

    Technology and product highlights 11

  12. Slide 12: Q1'25 product progress: embeddings

    Q1’25 product progress: embeddings Clustering unstructured data to improve model accuracy Example: across …embeddings allow us different borrowers… to identify semantically ● In Q1’25 we introduced embedding algorithms similar accounts. into our core personal loan underwriting model. Borrower Credit

  13. Slide 13: Upstart AI supports scale and leads to radically better consumer experiences

    Upstart AI supports scale and leads to radically better consumer experiences Q1’25: 92% of loans were fully automated, with no human intervention by Upstart Percentage of loans fully automated 13

  14. Slide 14: More automation can drive higher loan volumes

    More automation can drive higher loan volumes Breaking down the math - how we arrive at the percentage of loans fully automated Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 318K 92% of 241K 239K rate offers accepted funded loans 221K and evaluated by our ~9 of 10 applications were fully verification model converted to loans

  15. Slide 15: Personal loan originations

    Personal loan originations ($M) Q1’25 originations $2.0B Personal loan originations grew 83% YoY Q4’23 Q1’24 Q2’24 Q3’24 Q4’24 Q1’25 # of loans 129,078 118,743 143,066 186,786 243,495 237,641 15

  16. Slide 16: Personal loan originations by borrower segment

    Personal loan originations by borrower segment ($M) Small dollar Core Super prime (720+) Q1’25 originations $2.0B Super prime was 32% of personal loan originations. “Best rates for all” is creating a more balanced portfolio. Q4’23 Q1’24 Q2’24 Q3’24 Q4’24 Q1’25 # of loans 129,078 118,743 143,066 186,

  17. Slide 17: Auto originations

    Auto originations ($M) Q1’25 originations $61M Auto originations grew 5X since Q1’24 and 42% sequentially Q4’23 Q1’24 Q2’24 Q3’24 Q4’24 Q1’25 # of loans 542 526 708 1,080 1,715 2,399 17

  18. Slide 18: Home originations

    Home originations ($M) Q1’25 originations $41M Launched toward the end of 2023, home originations grew 6X since Q1’24 and 52% sequentially. Q4’23 Q1’24 Q2’24 Q3’24 Q4’24 Q1’25 # of loans 44 111 126 283 453 666 Note: Home originations are defined as total committed amount the borrower can draw against

  19. Slide 19: Marketplace update

    Marketplace update 19

  20. Slide 20: Macroeconomic risk to consumer health has improved since mid-2024

    Macroeconomic risk to consumer health has improved since mid-2024 Recent UMI trends signal improvement in borrower repayment behavior Note: UMI estimates the impact of the macroeconomy on actual credit losses based on Upstart-powered unsecured personal loan data, see: https://www.upstart.com/umi. 20

  21. Slide 21: Upstart has delivered solid returns to capital partners

    Upstart has delivered solid returns to capital partners Net annualized return compared to the 2-year Treasury Yield If an investor invested equally in all Upstart cohorts since Q1 2023, they would now expect annualized returns of 12.2%, which represents an 8.1% spread over the 2-Year Treasury 2-Year

  22. Slide 22: Value of Upstart's co-investments in committed capital partnerships

    Value of Upstart’s co-investments in committed capital partnerships Upstart shares in the risk of our committed capital partnerships, via various forms of min/max: $0 - 1,079M minority co-investment. Capital co-invested min/max: $0 - 642M $526M is the cumulative outstanding amount that Upstart has i

  23. Slide 23: Loans held by Upstart

    Loans held by Upstart A closer look at $815M in Q1’25: Securitized loans $89M relates to an asset-backed securitization from Q3’23, reflecting GAAP treatment. Upstart’s actual retained value was $13M as of 3/31/25. Directly held loans The remaining $726M in whole loans is largely related to R&D of $5

  24. Slide 24: Financial appendix

    Financial appendix 24

  25. Slide 25: Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet

    Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet ($ in millions) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Assets Cash and cash equivalents $ 368.4 $ 300.5 $ 374.8 $ 445.3 $ 788.4 $ 599.8 Restricted cash 99.4 138.6 185.8 210.5 187.8 239.8 Loans (at fair value) (1) 1,156

  26. Slide 26: Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet (cont.)

    Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet (cont.) ($ in millions) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity Liabilities: Payable to investors $ 53.6 $ 59.1 $ 65.5 $ 60.8 $ 60.2 $ 83.1 Borrowings 1,040.4 1,005.3 912.7 887.4 1,4

  27. Slide 27: Condensed Consolidated Statement of Operations

    Condensed Consolidated Statement of Operations (in millions, except share and per share data) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Revenue: Revenue from fees, net $ 152.8 $ 138.1 $ 130.5 $ 167.6 $ 199.3 $ 185.5 Interest income, interest expense, and fai

  28. Slide 28: Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows

    Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (in millions) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Cash flows from operating activities Net loss $ (42.4) $ (64.6) $ (54.5) $ (6.8) $ (2.8) $ (2.4) Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by (

  29. Slide 29: Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (cont.)

    Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (cont.) (in millions) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Cash flows from investing activities Purchases and originations of loans held-for-investment (35.9) (46.2) (64.8) (85.6) (126.5) (149.9) Proceeds fr

  30. Slide 30: Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (cont.)

    Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (cont.) (in millions) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Cash flows from financing activities Proceeds from warehouse borrowings 97.4 74.3 173.3 50.1 89.7 53.7 Proceeds from convertible notes issuance, net

  31. Slide 31: Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures (in millions, except ratios) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Total revenue $ 140.3 $ 127.8 $ 127.6 $ 162.1 $ 219.0 $ 213.4 Net loss (42.4) (64.6) (54.5) (6.8) (2.8) (2.4) Net Loss Margin (30%) (51%) (43%

  32. Slide 32: Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures (in millions, except ratios) Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Revenue from fees, net $ 152.8 $ 138.1 $ 130.5 $ 167.6 $ 199.3 $ 185.5 Loss from operations (47.5) (67.5) (55.5) (45.2) (4.8) (4.5) Operating

  33. Slide 33: Key Operating Metrics & Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Key Operating Metrics & Non-GAAP Financial Measures We define Transaction Volume, Dollars as the total principal of loan originations (or committed amounts for HELOCs) facilitated on our marketplace during the periods presented. We define Transaction Volume, Number of Loans as the number of loan origi

  34. Slide 34: Thank You

    Thank You

Upstart Holdings — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation on 6ix