Public Service Company Of New Mexico · OTC:PNMXO
Public Service Company Of New Mexico — Technical Presentation (July 2022)
37 slides from Public Service Company Of New Mexico's technical presentation, Jul 27, 2022
Slide 1: PNM 2023-2042 IRP: Modeling Updates
PNM 2023-2042 IRP: Modeling Updates TECHNICAL SESSION #5 JULY 27, 2022
Slide 2: Disclosure Regarding Forward Looking Statements
DISCLOSURE REGARDING FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS The information provided in this presentation contains scenario planning assumptions to assist in the Integrated Resource Plan public process and should not be considered statements of the company’s actual plans. Any assumptions and projections contain
Slide 3: Meeting Ground Rules
MEETING GROUND RULES THE FOCUS OF THE MEETING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2023 IRP • Questions and comments are welcome – One Person Speaks at a Time 01 • Reminder; today’s presentation is not PNM’s plan or a financial forecast, it is an illustration of the IRP process 02 • When asking a question, ple
Slide 4: Technical Session
TECHNICAL SESSION THE FOCUS OF THE MEETING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2023 IRP The technical sessions are about discussing the advantages and disadvantages regarding the application of different technical methodologies within the IRP modeling framework. We are not here to focus on the results or driv
Slide 5: Meeting Agenda
MEETING AGENDA • Welcome and Introductions • Modeling Improvements & Testing • Next steps and Near-Term Schedule SL IDE 5 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 6: Modeling Improvements and Testing
PNM 2023-2042 IRP Modeling Improvements and Testing • Modeling Framework • Performance • Energy Efficiency Modeling • Long Term Storage • Power to Hydrogen SL IDE 6 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 7: Modeling Framework
MODELING FRAMEWORK RM & ELCCs SERVM Planning Reserve Margin (%) 0 Perform LOLP Analysis for 0.1 LOLE and ELCCs ELCC per technology (% Firm) Adjust Portfolio if Reliability not met SL IDE 7 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 8: PNM System Modeling – Capacity Expansion
PNM SYSTEM MODELING – CAPACITY EXPANSION Inputs Requirements Output Least Cost Expansion Existing Generation Transmission Plan Generic Resource Options ETA Limits System Dispatch Purchase/Sale Contracts RPS System Emissions Ancillary Service Energy Efficiency Requirements System Cost (PVRR) Load Fue
Slide 9: PNM System Modeling – Production Cost Modeling
PNM SYSTEM MODELING – PRODUCTION COST MODELING Inputs Requirements Outputs Existing Generation Transmission Detailed Dispatch Least Cost Expansion ETA Limits Emissions Plan Purchase/Sale RPS System Costs (PVRR) Contracts Ancillary Service Energy Efficiency Requirements Market Transaction Load Limits
Slide 10: EnCompass Modeling for Performance
ENCOMPASS MODELING FOR PERFORMANCE Maximize commitment and dispatch detail of existing and new resources within simulations Capital Commitment Optimization Optimization - Full - Full - Partial - Partial - Limits Only - No Commit Minimize time to perform detailed simulations to allow more time for ad
Slide 11: EnCompass Modeling for Performance - Commitment
ENCOMPASS MODELING FOR PERFORMANCE - COMMITMENT No Commitment Partial Commitment Full Commitment Enforced Enforced Enforced • Ramp rates • Starts/Shutdowns (fractional, • Starts/Shutdowns (integer) • Ancillary requirements (spin) i.e., 0.4 units = 1 unit @ 40%) • Ramp rates Ignored • Ramp rates • An
Slide 12: EnCompass Modeling for Performance - Comparison
ENCOMPASS MODELING FOR PERFORMANCE - COMPARISON Time taken per simulation/scenario/sensitivity Run Type No Commitment Partial Commitment Full Commitment Capacity Expansion 1-2 Hours 5-10 Hours unachievable Production Cost – Emission Limit Constrained 15-60 Minutes 45 Minutes to 4 Hours 4-10 Hours Pr
Slide 13: EnCompass Modeling for Performance - Results
ENCOMPASS MODELING FOR PERFORMANCE - RESULTS Thermal Generation (GWh) • Partial Commitment runs can be used for 10,000 Capacity Expansion simulations and 8,000 6,000 high-level scenario production cost 4,000 modeling 2,000 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Slide 14: Energy Efficiency Modeling in EnCompass
ENERGY EFFICIENCY MODELING IN ENCOMPASS 700 600 2020 IRP EE Modeling 500 PNM EE GWh • Modeled existing EE programs as 400 300 existing resources 200 • New EE programs (EE Bundles) 100 modeled as candidate resources 0 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 60 Exist
Slide 15: Energy Efficiency Bundles in 2020 IRP Least Cost Plans
ENERGY EFFICIENCY BUNDLES IN 2020 IRP LEAST COST PLANS Program and Cost 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Base Program 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Incremental Up to $50 99% 100% Incremental Up to $5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100
Slide 16: Energy Efficiency Modeling in EnCompass
ENERGY EFFICIENCY MODELING IN ENCOMPASS 2023 IRP Option A 2023 IRP Option B 2023 IRP Option C • Energy Efficiency • Reduced Energy • Pursue similar Bundle Pre-solve Efficiency Bundles analysis that was • Pursue Similar • Consolidate performed in 2020 Setup as 2020 Energy Efficiency IRP (run all ➢Run
Slide 17: Long Duration Storage
LONG DURATION STORAGE • Objective is at least one week of Storage for Renewable Energy • Pumped Storage • Hydrogen Storage • Battery Storage • Evaluating the value of duration vs capacity • Reviewing generic pricing and technology updates SL IDE 1 7 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 18: Pumped Storage
PUMPED STORAGE Modeling for various configurations 1500MW Capacity 100GWh Energy Storage Dept. of Energy SL IDE 1 8 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 19: Pumped Storage 1500MW Site – Average Monthly Storage Level
SL IDE 1 9 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2 100000 120000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 1/1/2032 PUMPED STORAGE 4/1/2032 7/1/2032 10/1/2032 1/1/2033 4/1/2033 7/1/2033 10/1/2033 1/1/2034 4/1/2034 7/1/2034 10/1/2034 1/1/2035 4/1/2035 7/1/2035 10/1/2035 1/1/2036 4/1/2036 7/1/2036 10/1/2036 1/1/2037 4/1/2037 7/1/2037
Slide 20: Long Term Storage
LONG TERM STORAGE Seasonal Storage Drivers 2000 Excess Solar/Wind 1500 Load Requirements GWh 1000 Seasonal Price Differential 500 0 Jan Feb May Aug Mar Apr Sep Nov Jul Jun Oct Dec Storage Payback Wind Solar 1200 1200 1200 160 1000 1000 1000 140 120 800 800 800 100 $/MWh GWh GWh GWh 600 600 600 80 40
Slide 21: Pumped Storage – Typical Week 2035
SL IDE 2 1 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2 October July January April MWh MWh MWh MWh 0 -2000 -1000 1000 1000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 -2000 -1000 0 -2000 -1000 0 1000 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 9 9 9 9 13 13 13 13 17 17 17 17 21 21 21 21 25 25 25 25 29 29 29 29 33 33 33 33 37 37 37 37 41 41 41 41 45 45 45 45 PUMPED STORAGE
Slide 22: Pumped Storage
PUMPED STORAGE Long Duration Storage Daily Total 120 Seasonal Storage 100 Typical Typical 80 Weekly/Monthly Weekly/Monthly On/Off Peak Cycling On/Off Peak Cycling 60 GWh 40 Discharge Due to 20 Renewable "Drought" 0 -20 Jan-35 Feb-35 Mar-35 Apr-35 May-35 Jun-35 Jul-35 Aug-35 Sep-35 Oct-35 Nov-35 Dec-
Slide 23: Power to Hydrogen
POWER TO HYDROGEN • Single Site Hydrogen Electrolysis, Storage, and CT • Distributed Hydrogen Electrolysis, Storage, and CTs • Hydrogen Retrofit Project • Available Water • Available Transmission • Interim/Redundant Gas Supply SL IDE 2 3 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 24: Power to Hydrogen – Single Site
POWER TO HYDROGEN – SINGLE SITE Grid/Renewable Grid Energy Energy Electrolysis Combustion Hydrogen Hydrogen Vessel Turbine Generator Single Site SL IDE 2 4 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 25: Power to Hydrogen – Single Site
POWER TO HYDROGEN – SINGLE SITE New Hydrogen CT Additions 450 400 350 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-9 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-8 300 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-7 250 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-6 MW 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-5 200 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-4 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-3 150 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-2 1xLM6000 Hydrogen-1 100 1xLM6000 Hydrogen 50 0 2022
Slide 26: Power to Hydrogen – Distributed Generation
POWER TO HYDROGEN – DISTRIBUTED GENERATION Grid/Renewable Grid Energy Energy Electrolysis Combustion Hydrogen Turbine Generator Electrolysis Hydrogen Combustion Hydrogen Vessel Turbine Generator Electrolysis Combustion Hydrogen Turbine Generator Hydrogen Fuel Storage Network SL IDE 2 6 | J UL Y 2 7
Slide 27: Power to Hydrogen – Hydrogen Retrofit
POWER TO HYDROGEN – HYDROGEN RETROFIT Grid/Renewable Grid Energy Energy Electrolysis Combustion Hydrogen Hydrogen Vessel Turbine Generator 1,000,000 kg of H2 256MW Total Output 263MW Total Input Existing Site SL IDE 2 7 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 28: Power to Hydrogen – Hydrogen Retrofit
Dec-35 Dec-35 Dec-35 Nov-35 Nov-35 Oct-35 Oct-35 Sep-35 Sep-35 Aug-35 Aug-35 Jul-35 Jul-35 Payback Jul-35 Jun-35 Generation POWER TO HYDROGEN – HYDROGEN RETROFIT Jun-35 May-35 May-35 Apr-35 Apr-35 Mar-35 Mar-35 Feb-35 Feb-35 Jan-35 Jan-35 Jan-35 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 -3000 -35
Slide 29: Power to Hydrogen – Hydrogen Retrofit
SL IDE 2 9 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2 July April January October MWh MWh MWh MWh 200 -300 200 -300 200 -300 -300 200 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 9 9 9 9 13 13 13 13 17 17 17 17 21 21 21 21 25 25 25 25 29 29 29 29 33 33 33 33 37 37 37 37 41 41 41 41 45 45 45 45 49 49 49 49 53 53 53 53 57 57 57 57 61 61 61 61 POWER T
Slide 30: Battery Storage Needs (Ongoing)
BATTERY STORAGE NEEDS (ONGOING) 2020 IRP, Figure 85. Timing & seasonality of reliability events by 2025 2020 IRP, Figure 87. Timing and seasonality of reliability events, No New Combustion (Low Imports) scenario, 2040 SL IDE 3 0 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 31: Battery Storage Needs (Ongoing)
BATTERY STORAGE NEEDS (ONGOING) EnCompass to optimize storage requirements, Storage capacity contribution declining over however, additional analysis may be needed to time as net load shape flattens over time determine if adjustments are needed to help meet/maintain reliability Example from 6/27/202
Slide 32: Recap
RECAP PNM is continuing to improve modeling • Maximizing Speed and Detail • Updated Modeling of Energy Efficiency Bundles • Adding Longer Duration Storage • Adding Power to Hydrogen SL IDE 3 2 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 33: Near Term Schedule
NEAR TERM SCHEDULE FUTURE MEETING TIME & LOCATION When: August 3, 2022 Topic: Public Advisory Technical Session #5 Open Stakeholder Presentations or Review Topics (as requested) Start Time: 9:00 AM Location: Virtual PNM will hold virtual meetings until circumstances warrant a change. If there is str
Slide 34: Near Term Schedule
NEAR TERM SCHEDULE FUTURE MEETING TIME & LOCATION When: August 17, 2022 Topic: Public Advisory Steering Meeting #4: Transmission Start Time: 9:00 AM Location: Virtual PNM will hold virtual meetings until circumstances warrant a change. If there is strong interest to resume in person meetings for fut
Slide 35: Next Meeting
NEXT MEETING We encourage you to send in your thoughts ahead of time to IRP@pnm.com so that we can summarize them and distribute them for the next meeting. Please have your submissions in by July 31, 2022. SL IDE 3 5 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 36: Make Sure We Have Up to Date Contact Information for You
MAKE SURE WE HAVE UP TO DATE CONTACT INFORMATION FOR YOU www.pnm.com/irp for documents IRP@pnm.com for e-mails Register your email on sign-in sheets to receive alerts of upcoming meetings and notices that we have posted to the website. SL IDE 3 6 | J UL Y 2 7 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 37: Thank you
Thank you pr aio OO@
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