Slide 1: Vistra Energy 2017 Results
Vistra Energy 2017 Results February 26, 2018
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Safe Harbor Statements, Continued
Safe Harbor Statements, Continued Information About Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Items Affecting Comparability “Adjusted EBITDA” (EBITDA as adjusted for unrealized gains or losses from hedging activities, tax receivable agreement obligations, reorganization items, and certain other items describe
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Welcome and Safe Harbor Molly Sorg, Vice President, Investor Relations 2017 Highlights and Operational Review Curt Morgan, President and Chief Executive Officer & Jim Burke, Chief Operating Officer Q4 Hot Topics Sara Graziano, SVP Corporate Development 2017 Financial Review Bill Holden, Chief
Slide 5: 2017 Highlights & Operational Review
2017 Highlights & Operational Review Curt Morgan, President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Burke, Chief Operating Officer
Slide 6: 2017 Highlights
2017 Highlights Financial Performance • FY 2017 Adjusted EBITDA: $1,455mm – Top quartile of narrowed Adj. EBITDA guidance range of $1,375mm – $1,475mm • FY 2017 Adjusted FCF: $831mm – Midpoint of narrowed Adj. FCF guidance range of $770mm – $900mm Strong business performance despite headwinds of mil
Slide 7: Historical Forward Price Curves – 2018
Historical Forward Price Curves – 2018 2018 5x16 Fixed Price Power¹ 2018 5x16 Spark Spreads2 $55 $23 $21 $50 $19 $45 $17 $40 $15 $13 $35 $11 $30 $9 $25 $7 Mass Hub ERCOT NHUB PJM West AEP Dayton, Ohio Hub North Illinois Hub On-peak 2018 spark spreads have increased significantly in ERCOT North since
Slide 8: Historical Forward Price Curves – 2019
Historical Forward Price Curves – 2019 2019 5x16 Fixed Price Power¹ 2019 5x16 Spark Spreads2 $50 $21 $19 $45 $17 $40 $15 $35 $13 $30 $11 $25 $9 Mass Hub ERCOT NHUB PJM West AEP Dayton, Ohio Hub North Illinois Hub Positive heat rate momentum in several markets has continued into 2019 curves ¹ Histori
Slide 9: Dynegy Merger: Status Update
Dynegy Merger: Status Update Approvals • HSR clearance and NYPSC approval (via consent agenda) received • Shareholder votes scheduled for March 2, 2018 • We believe remaining approvals are on track for a second quarter 2018 closing: Regulatory Agency Docket Number Filing Date Public Utility Commissi
Slide 10: Commercial Operations
Commercial Operations Strong Commercial Performance Realized Prices and Volumes ($/MWh) • Fossil Fleet Commercial Availability1 of 96% for 2017 • Consistent results from our commercial team, 87 TWhs $33.39 with 2017 realized prices ~44% higher than $30.95 $1.85 settled prices $10.17 ~76 TWhs $29.10
Slide 11: Annual Retail Highlights
Annual Retail Highlights Residential Net Attrition Continues to Decline Strong ’17 Volumes (GWh) Despite Mild Weather 1.516 1.500 1.489 1.478 1.472 41,212 39,888 39,032 37,994 38,511 15,203 16,601 19,289 18,784 18,496 (2.8%) (1.1%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.4%) 22,791 21,910 21,923 21,104 20,536 2013 2014 20
Slide 12: Q4 Hot Topics
Q4 Hot Topics Sara Graziano, SVP Corporate Development
Slide 13: ERCOT Market Dynamics
ERCOT Market Dynamics GW ERCOT Summer CDR ERCOT New Build 100.0 40.0% • Thermal Resources 90.0 83.0 83.0 35.0% 80.6 82.1 – New thermal resources remain uneconomic in 80.0 77.2 76.1 ERCOT, despite the recent uptick in forward curves 73.4 74.7 70.7 72.2 30.0% – New build unlevered returns for both CCG
Slide 14: Renewable Resource Development
Renewable Resource Development Texas Solar Irradiance Map Renewable Economics in ERCOT • Location is essential – Irradiance is a major driver of returns, with capacity factors falling from high 30%s to low 20%s moving from west to east across Texas – Solar developments in the major load pockets (Hou
Slide 15: 2017 Financial Review
2017 Financial Review Bill Holden, Chief Financial Officer
Slide 16: Financial Results
Financial Results Highlights Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions) • Full-Year 2017 Adjusted EBITDA of $1,455mm Retail Wholesale – Retail Adj. EBITDA within guided range – Wholesale Adj. EBITDA above guided range due $1,4551 to strong commercial performance and disciplined cost management 696 • 2017 Adjus
Slide 17: Introducing the Asset Closure Segment
Introducing the Asset Closure Segment 2018E Guidance Asset Closure Ongoing ($ in millions) Initiated on 11/3/17 Segment Operations Retail $775 – 835 $- $775 – 835 Wholesale $540 – 630 $(50) – (40) $590 – 670 Corp Center $(15) $- $(15) Adjusted EBITDA $1,300 – 1,450 $(50) – (40) $1,350 – 1,490 Adjust
Slide 18: Vistra Hedge Profile
Vistra Hedge Profile Natural Gas Hedge Profile Heat Rate Hedge Profile 83% 90% 82% 67% 42% 10/20/17 12/29/171 38% 10/20/17 12/29/171 10/20/17¹ 6/30/17 10/20/17 6/30/17 10/20/17¹ 6/30/17 10/20/17 6/30/17 22% 10/20/17 12/29/17 11% 10/20/17 12/29/17 2018 2019 2018 2019 Natural Gas Margin Sensitivity2 H
Slide 19: Vistra Capital Structure
Vistra Capital Structure • From February 2017 to February 2018, Vistra executed four separate credit facility repricings that reduced annualized interest expense by ~$66 million $ in millions 12/31/2017 2018E Long-term debt1 $4,423 $4,423 Pro forma term loan amortization -- (39) Pro forma long-term
Slide 20: Q&A
VIeTDA ow Baw = ENERGY Q&A
Slide 21: Appendix
VICTRA ENERGY Appendix
Slide 22: Q4 Financial Comparison
Q4 Financial Comparison Highlights Q4 Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions) • Vistra delivered Q4 2017 Adjusted EBITDA of $313mm1 versus $3681 million in Q4 20162 Retail Wholesale – Retail Adjusted EBITDA declined by $6 million quarter-over-quarter, driven by slightly lower $3681 margins and partially off
Slide 23: ERCOT Market Pricing
ERCOT Market Pricing Monthly North Hub ATC Power Prices¹ Implied North Hub ATC Market Heat Rates 22.016 August 18 $60.91 Aug. 18 August 19 20.4 Aug. 19 $54.116 $28.116 $26.616 10.2616 9.2816 Monthly Gas Prices (HSC)² Yearly Average Prices NHUB NHUB Gas - HSC PRB 8800 ATC ATC HR $2.86 August 18 2016A
Slide 24: Retail Quarterly Key Metrics
Retail Quarterly Key Metrics Residential Customer Counts1 2017 Highlights (in thousands) • Launched “Free Nights and Solar Days” – the first mass market solar product securing the output of the Axis Title 1,478 1,478 1,477 Upton 2 solar project 1,476 1,472 • Continued multi-brand strategy in ERCOT w
Slide 25: Vistra Capital Expenditures
Vistra Capital Expenditures Capital Expenditures1 2015A-2018E ($ in millions) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E3 Nuclear Fuel $122 $74 $62 $118 Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance 207 189 74 203 Environmental 82 62 14 17 IT, Corporate, and Other 44 27 26 29 Total Capital Expenditures $455 $352 $176 $367 Non-recurrin
Slide 26: Reg G Reconciliation – Q4 2016 Adj. EBITDA
Reg G Reconciliation – Q4 2016 Adj. EBITDA 25
Slide 27: Reg G Reconciliation – Q4 2017 Adj. EBITDA
Reg G Reconciliation – Q4 2017 Adj. EBITDA 26
Slide 28: Reg G Reconciliation – FY 2017 Adj. EBITDA
Reg G Reconciliation – FY 2017 Adj. EBITDA 27
Slide 29: Reg G Reconciliation – FY 2017 Adj. FCF
Reg G Reconciliation – FY 2017 Adj. FCF 28
Slide 30: Reg G Reconciliation – 2018 Guidance
Reg G Reconciliation – 2018 Guidance 29