Public Service Company Of New Mexico · OTC:PNMXO
Public Service Company Of New Mexico — Corporate Update (December 2007)
21 slides from Public Service Company Of New Mexico's corporate update, Dec 20, 2007
Slide 1: Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Electric Integrated Resource Plan Sixth Public Involvement Meeting December 20, 2007 PNM Santa Fe Service Center 1
Slide 2: Evelin Wheeler, Director, Integrated Resource Planning
Evelin Wheeler Director, Integrated Resource Planning 2
Slide 3: Schedule
Schedule • Review inputs and output format today • January meeting focused on DSM/EE • February draft report part 1 • April portfolio performance summaries • Early May discuss portfolios • Early June draft report part 2 • Early July draft comments due • Filing July 16, 2008 3
Slide 4: Modeling Techniques
Modeling Techniques • Vary the sensitivities over a reasonable range • Examine multiple scenarios • Stress test with risk analysis 4
Slide 5: Scenarios
Scenarios Average Low Envir Robust Economy Econony Slowed Economy High Envir Concern Mid Envir Concern Concern 1R 2R 3R 4R 5A 6A 7A 8A 9S 10S 11S 12S 13H 14H 15H 16H 17H 18M 19M 20M 21M 22M 23L 24L 25L SENSITIVITIES Existing portfolio X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Retire PV X X X
Slide 6: Presentation of Results
Presentation of Results Scenario name: Scenario number: Lowest CO2 Least Cost emissions Most Portfolio Portfolio Reliable NPV $XXX NPV $XXX NPV $XXX Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons CO2 XXX CO2 XXX CO2 XXX Loss of Loss of Loss of Load XX% Load XX% Load XX% Resource MWs Resource MWs Resource MWs 2
Slide 7: 95th Percentile Cost
Presentation of Results $4,020,000 Case 1 $4,010,000 Case 2 95th Percentile Cost $4,000,000 Case 3 $3,990,000 Case 4 $3,980,000 Case 5 $3,970,000 Case 6 $3,960,000 Case 7 Case 8 $3,950,000 Case 9 $3,940,000 Case 10 $3,450,000 $3,490,000 $3,530,000 $3,570,000 Case 11 Expected Cost 7
Slide 8: Cost Inputs - Summit Blue Consulting
Cost Inputs Summit Blue Consulting 8
Slide 9: Existing Resources
Existing Resources CO2 Total Plant Option Costs Fixed O&M Variable O&M Heatrate Intensity Data Source for Plant Size MW Size MW $/kW $/kWyr mills/kWh Btu/kWh tons/MWh O&M Expenses COAL Four Corners 192 192 0 79.99 0 9,754 0.98 Internal PNM San Juan 765 765 0 68.38 0.00 10,430 1.06 Internal PNM NATUR
Slide 10: Potential Supply Side Resources
Potential Supply Side Resources • PNM will use EPRI Tag info as a basis for most cost data • EPRI Tag info must be modified for elevation and other local factors • The database will be updated with the latest figures within the next month 10
Slide 11: Fuel Prices
Fuel Prices 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 $/MBtu NG Permian 8.00 NG Per Min NG Per Max 6.00 SJ Coal FC Coal 4.00 PV Fuel 2.00 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Year Gas prices Copyright © 2007 Global Energy Decisions, The Velocit
Slide 12: Market Power Prices
Market Power Prices Power Prices @ Palo Verde Hub $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $/MWh $60.00 GED On Peak GED Off Peak $40.00 $20.00 $- Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Jan-27 Month 12 Copyright © 2007 Global
Slide 13: System Assumptions
System Assumptions Energy Balancing Assumptions: • Dump Energy = $15/MWh • Emergency Energy = $290/MWh • Escalate both at 2.5% per year CO2 Pricing Assumptions • Run scenarios with $8, $20 and $40 per metric ton prices • Costs begin in 2010 and escalate at 2.5% annually 13
Slide 14: Financial Assumptions
Financial Assumptions Duration Conditions Cost of Capital (Pre-tax) 12.21% Cost of Capital (After-tax) 8.57% Inflation 2.5% per year Escalation on O&M 3.5% per year Book Life for new alternatives 30 Years NPV basis 30 Years Property Tax Rate 2.00% Insurance Rate 0.50% Federal Tax Credits Solar Inves
Slide 15: Load Scenarios - Summit Blue Consulting
Load Scenarios Summit Blue Consulting 15
Slide 16: Summary of Scenarios
Summary of Scenarios Retail Energy Growth Low Growth Base Case High Growth (2008-2018) (2008-2018) (2008-2018) Residential Energy 2.4% 3.3% 4.9% Residential Customers 1.6% 2.1% 2.8% Residential Avg. Usage 0.8% 1.2% 2.0% Commercial Energy 1.5% 2.1% 3.0% Commercial Customers 1.5% 2.2% 2.7% Commercial
Slide 17: Summary Low Growth
Summary Low Growth Retail Energy Scenario • Weak residential and use per customer growth • Weak commercial growth and no commercial use per customer increase • Decrease in industrial demand of about 25 MW over a 5 year period starting 2010 17 17
Slide 18: Summary High Growth
Summary High Growth Retail Energy Scenario • Strong residential and use per customer growth • Approximately half the increase due to plug in hybrid scenario • Strong commercial growth and commercial use per customer increases slightly • Increase in industrial demand of about 25 MW over a 5 year peri
Slide 19: Retail Energy
Retail Energy 25,000 20,000 15,000 GWh 10,000 5,000 0 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year Low Mid High 19 19
Slide 20: Summary of Super High & Super Low Scenarios
Summary of Super High & Super Low Scenarios • Super High: arbitrarily add 100 MW to high demand projection and use a composite shape to make corresponding adjustment to energy forecast • Super Low: arbitrarily subtract 100 from low demand projection and use a composite shape to make corresponding ad
Slide 21: Retail Demand
Retail Demand 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 MW 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year Low Mid High Super Low Super High 21 21
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