Sagen MI Canada Inc · TSX:MIC.PR.A
Sagen MI Canada — Genworth MI Canada — Investor Day (November 2012)
76 slides from Sagen MI Canada's investor day presentation, Nov 14, 2012
Slide 1: Delivering Value Beyond MI – Investor Day
Delivering Value Beyond MI Genworth MI Canada Inc. Investor Day November 14, 2012 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Slide 2: Forward-Looking and Non-IFRSs Statements
Forward-Looking and Non-IFRSs Statements This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the Company’s future operating and financial results, expectations regarding premiums written, capital
Slide 3: Welcome
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI Welcome Samantha Cheung VP, Investor Relations
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Delivering Value Beyond MI Market and Strategy Brian Hurley, Chairman and CEO Sales Debbie McPherson, SVP, Sales and Marketing Operations Stuart Levings, Chief Operations Officer Risk Craig Sweeney, Chief Risk Officer Finance Philip Mayers, Chief Financial Officer Summary Brian Hu
Slide 5: Market and Strategy Overview
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI Market and Strategy Overview Brian Hurley Chairman and CEO
Slide 6: Overview
Overview View of the housing market Outlook for mortgage originations High ratio market trends Our strategy in this environment Our approach: collaboration and innovation Genworth MI Canada Inc. Market and Strategy Overview 6
Slide 7: Canada Housing Market
Canada Housing Market Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Average Sales Price National (CAD $000s) Ontario 700 Alberta Quebec Strong price recovery since 2009 Pacific 600 Pacific softening driven by high-end Vancouver 500 Alberta market recovering 400 300 National HPA flat since 1Q 2011 200 07 08 09
Slide 8: Mortgage Originations Outlook
Mortgage Originations Outlook Stable Housing Demand Housing Resales and Completions (units in thousands) Goal of homeownership a strong influencing factor Resales Completions 641 634 633 644 637 Mortgage rule changes impacting housing demand 176 187 176 177 179 Low interest rates help with aff
Slide 9: High Loan-to-Value Market
High Loan-to-Value Market Significant Component of Mortgage Market HLTV Mortgage Penetration-Purchases (% market >80% LTV) First-time homebuyer key Consumer confidence continues to improve Strong borrower quality 34% 40% 35% 33% 32% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F Source: Company estimates Genworth
Slide 10: MIC Served Market Trends
MIC Served Market Trends Average Credit Score 726 727 727 730 702 Ongoing focus to improve scores “A” quality borrower only 08 09 10 11 12 Average Home Price First-time borrower segment 256 266 284 296 301 Modest increase in home prices 08 09 10 11 12 Average Gross Debt Service 24 25 24 A
Slide 11: Regulations Create Positive Tailwind
Regulations Create Positive Tailwind Regulatory Focus Impact OSFI now responsible for all MI Consistent application of rules and regulations providers More clarity and insight into industry B-20 guidelines Lender focus… but specific MI guidelines expected Defined mortgage eligibility rules S
Slide 12: Our Strategic Priorities
Our Strategic Priorities Grow market penetration Proactive risk management Maintain strong government relations Rigorous capital management Drive positive and powerful customer experience Attract, retain and engage top talent Genworth MI Canada Inc. Market and Strategy Overview 12
Slide 13: Multiple Customer Touch Points
Multiple Customer Touch Points Our Comprehensive Approach to Lender Partners Key Stakeholders Branches, Specialists, Mortgage Risk and C-Suite Underwriting Business Line Treasury Centres Underwriting Operations Sales Risk Sr. Leadership MIC Team Support Genworth MI Canada Inc. Market and Strategy Ov
Slide 14: Customer Centric Sales Strategy
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI Customer Centric Sales Strategy Debbie McPherson SVP, Sales and Marketing
Slide 15: Canadian Mortgage Landscape
Canadian Mortgage Landscape Residential Mortgage Insured vs. Non-Insured Market Mortgages $1.1 Trillion 4% 21% 41% 59% 75% Banks Non-Banks Securitization Insured Non-insured Source: Canadian Housing Observer, December 2011 Source: August 2012 OSFI Data for Banks MI Product Embedded in the Canadian M
Slide 16: Mortgage Insurance Penetration
Mortgage Insurance Penetration Bank Average 59% 71% 74% 54% 58% 43% RBC BNS BMO TD CIBC Source: August 2012 OSFI Data for Banks Demand For Portfolio Insurance Driving Penetration Above Norms Genworth MI Canada Inc. Customer Centric Sales Strategy 16
Slide 17: Building Depth and Positioning MIC as Strategic Growth Partner
Delivering Value Beyond MI Customer Centric Sales Strategy Key Stakeholders Branches, Specialists, Mortgage Risk and C-Suite Underwriting Business Line Treasury Centres Underwriting Operations Sales Risk Sr. Leadership MIC Team Support Building Depth and Positioning MIC as Strategic Growth Partner
Slide 18: Local Market Presence and Expertise
Delivering Value Beyond MI Customer Centric Sales Strategy Key Stakeholders Branches, Mortgage Risk and C-Suite Specialists, Business Line Treasury Underwriting Centres Mortgage Expertise High touch sales and service model Growth Focus Ongoing needs assessment and skill development Technical S
Slide 19: Delivering Enterprise-Wide Solutions
Delivering Value Beyond MI Customer Centric Sales Strategy Key Stakeholders Branches, Specialists, Risk and C-Suite Underwriting Mortgage Treasury Centres Business Line Growth Dedicated MIC champion Differentiation Collaborative execution of strategies Service Innovation Portfolio analysis a
Slide 20: Addressing Lender's Balance Sheet Management Needs
Delivering Value Beyond MI Customer Centric Sales Strategy Key Stakeholders Branches, Specialists, Mortgage C-Suite Underwriting Business Line Risk and Centres Treasury Risk transfer and capital relief Capital Efficiency Portfolio insurance Manage Exposure Demonstrate claim paying ability Fu
Slide 21: Value Proposition Tailored to Needs
Delivering Value Beyond MI Customer Centric Sales Strategy Key Stakeholders Branches Mortgage Risk and Specialists Business Line Treasury Underwriting C-Suite Top Line Growth Identify strategy to support business goals Competitive Intelligence Communicate MIC financial strength Thought Leaders
Slide 22: Outpacing the Competition
Outpacing the Competition MIC is Service Leader in Sales and Underwriting Demonstrated track record Ease of execution Flexibility, responsiveness Fully Integrated Across Lender Value Chain Strong Commercial Execution Dynamic Influencer Strategies (Broker and Realtor) Industry Thought L
Slide 23: Market Penetration
Market Share Penetration Progression Top 20 Lender Share 8 13 6 4 6 3 Dec'11 Sep'12 MIC Market Share <20% 20-30% >30% Source: Company estimates Positive Momentum Moving into 2013 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Customer Centric Sales Strategy 23
Slide 24: Customer Centric Operations
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI Customer Centric Operations Stuart Levings Chief Operations Officer
Slide 25: Distinctive Operational Capabilities
Distinctive Operational Capabilities Customer Centric Operations Key Stakeholders Branches, Risk and C-Suite Specialists, Mortgage Treasury Underwriting Business Line Centres Outpace Competition Best customer experience Screen for Right Risk Astute risk, tools and technology Mitigate Losses
Slide 26: Strong Track Record of Customer Satisfaction
Strong Track Record of Customer Satisfaction Lender Satisfaction Drivers Consistent Lender Satisfaction Quick turnaround Flexible underwriting Consistent decisions 96% 97% 97% 97% 95% 96% Knowledgeable staff Products Guidelines Lender process Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 %
Slide 27: Our Underwriting Process
Our Underwriting Process Filters Based on High Risk Attributes Auto Decision Engine Auto Approval Credit Evaluation 150 data elements Mortgage Score Decision received from lender Underwriting Guidelines Referred To Underwriter Property Tools Guidelines and Tools Drive Efficiency and Quality Genworth
Slide 28: Astute Risk Focus
Astute Risk Focus Stacked Risk Factors Unique Risk Factors High Loan-to-Value Age and Income Mismatch Low Credit Scores Limited Job Tenure Short Closing Date Thin Credit Profile Economically Lender Requests Sensitive Area File Review Loss Drivers Identified and Risks Mitigated Genworth MI Canada Inc
Slide 29: Independent Automated Valuations
Independent 3 rd Party AVM’s Independent Automated Valuations Comparable Property Subject Property Property Characteristics Property Characteristics Property Style: Link Property Style: Link Square Footage: 1990 Square Footage: 2050 Year Built: 1985 Year Built: 1985 Sale Date: 01-01-20
Slide 30: Our Underwriting Process
Our Underwriting Process Filters Based on High Risk Attributes Auto Decision Engine Auto Approval Credit Evaluation 150 data elements Mortgage Score Decision received from lender Underwriting Guidelines Referred To Underwriter Property Tools Guidelines and Tools Drive Efficiency and Quality Genworth
Slide 31: Fundamentals of Underwriting
Fundamentals Of Underwriting Credit Profile Debt Servicing - Credit Score - Income level - Credit Age - Interest rate - Payment history - Amortization Key Underwriting Criteria Property Product - Location - Loan to value - Value - Self employed - Sales History - Salaried Sound Risk Judgment Genworth
Slide 32: Referred to Underwriter Experience
Referred to Underwriter Experience Lender Satisfaction Drivers MIC Service Delivery Quick turnaround Personalized lender specific Flexible underwriting teams Consistent decisions Efficient, familiar interaction Knowledgeable staff Timely, relevant communication Products Dedicated s
Slide 33: Innovative Loss Mitigation Strategies
Innovative Loss Mitigation Strategies Lender awareness Consumer Lender awareness Prevent education Consumer education Homeowner Assistance (HOAP) Engage Asset management (REO) Borrowers Recover Third parties Drives Meaningful Loss Savings Genworth MI Canada Inc. Customer Centric Oper
Slide 34: Homeowner Assistance Program
Homeowner Assistance Program Borrower Customized Cure Assessment Workout Solution Root Cause Analysis Execute Optimal Solution Impact Unemployment Capitalization of arrears Lender keeps client Reduced income Deferred payments Families stay in homes Marital disputes Partial payments
Slide 35: Asset Management - REO
Asset Management - REO Asset Management Cycle Savings Per File (Days) MIC Interest Property Management Lender ~$15K Commission 0 50 100 150 200 Sales Price List Sell Close Source: Company data Overview Pay out lender and assume mortgage at vacant possession Take control of asset sale to reduce proce
Slide 36: Loss Mitigation Impact
Loss Mitigation Impact Workout Penetration Rates REO Penetration Rates 49% 51% 50% 47% 51% 45% 35% 49% 47% 2009 2010 YTD 2012 2009 2010 YTD 2012 Competitive differentiator Enhances lender partnerships and Reduces loss frequency integration Reduces loss severity Source: Company data Industry
Slide 37: Differentiators and Lender Benefits
Differentiators and Lender Benefits Customer Centric Operations Key Stakeholders Branches, Risk and C-Suite Specialists, Mortgage Treasury Underwriting Business Line Centres Collaborative Approach Customized service Dedicated Lender Teams Personalized experience Common Sense Decisions Busine
Slide 38: Proactive Risk Management
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI Proactive Risk Management Craig Sweeney Chief Risk Officer
Slide 39: Risk Management Framework
Risk Management Framework Risk Framework Key Focus Areas Unemployment rate Assessment of Home prices macro-economic environment Housing market trends Underwriting fundamentals Disciplined approach to Risk-based collateral adjudication new business origination Avoid risk concentrations
Slide 40: Performance Drivers
Performance Drivers Frequency Severity Unemployment Rate (UE) Average Price ($000s) 10% 400 9% 350 8% 7% 300 6% 5% 250 4% 200 '07 '09 '11 '13F 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F Modest job growth over forecast period Housing market beginning to cool UE rate moderating towards historical HPA to remain rel
Slide 41: Housing Trends: Affordability and Supply vs. Demand
Housing Trends Housing Affordability Supply vs. Demand 80.0% 60 55 Affordability Index 60.0% 50 Balanced Market Good 40.0% 45 40 20.0% Sales to New Listings Ratio Standard 2 Storey House Source: RBC Economics Source: Canada Real Estate Association Flat home prices and low interest rates Firm emp
Slide 42: Housing Market Assessment
Housing Market Assessment Acceptable Monitoring Key Indicators GTA National Vancouver GTA Calgary Condos Home Price Appreciation Affordability Supply vs. Demand Housing demand and supply in balance Market shifting from detached single family homes to condos Strong population growth and employm
Slide 43: Disciplined Underwriting
Disciplined Underwriting Defined Risk Appetite Loan-by-Loan Underwriting Underwriting Avoid Risk Concentrations Guidelines Quality Assurance Property Risk Model Genworth MI Canada Inc. Proactive Risk Management 43
Slide 44: Property Risking Model
Property Risking Model Market Neighbourhood Economic strength Risk ranking 1-4 Market activity Marketability Primary, secondary, rural Location and influences AVMs Appraisals Sound Risk Previous sales history Judgment Full interior review Property specific value Independent asses
Slide 45: Neighbourhood Risk
Neighbourhood Risk Proprietary Risk Mapping Neighbourhood Risk 35 Severity of Loss % 30 Average Severity 25 20 31 28 25 22 15 10 Low Medium High Highest Neighbourhood risk highly predictive of loss severity Enhanced due diligence requirements as risk level increases Genworth MI Canada Inc. Proac
Slide 46: Condo Specific Risking
Condo Specific Risking In-depth project specific knowledge Screen for buildings with high investor content Tighter underwriting to limit concentration risk 100% manual underwrite Higher score requirements Small units ineligible Investor units ineligible Open Date Total Units Sales % Av
Slide 47: Emerging Loss Trends
Emerging Loss Trends Heat Maps Identify Areas with Higher Losses Early Identification Drives Underwriting Policy Changes Genworth MI Canada Inc. Proactive Risk Management 47
Slide 48: Significant De-Risking Since 2008
Significant De-Risking Since 2008 Improving Portfolio Quality 40% 735 Dynamic MIC actions to reduce risk exposure 730 30% 725 Tighter guidelines for loans with stacked risk factors 20% 720 Higher score requirements in 715 economically sensitive areas 10% 710 Additional government changes between
Slide 49: Driving Positive Delinquency Trends
Driving Positive Delinquency Trends 2009-11 Books are Seasoning and Performing Well 1.2% 1.0% Delinquency Rate 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 2008 2007 2010 2009 0.2% 2006 2011 0.0% 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 Months of Performance As at Sept. 30, 2012 Based on high loan-to-value volumes Genworth MI Canada Inc. Proactiv
Slide 50: Well-Diversified Insurance Portfolio
Well-Diversified Insurance Portfolio Credit Score Dispersion Regional Dispersion 9% 19% 21% 18% 12% 73% 36% 12% >=700 660 - 699 600 - 659 Alberta Other BC Ontario Quebec % based on high loan-to-value new insurance written in 2012 YTD Driving Strong Portfolio Quality Genworth MI Canada Inc. Proactive
Slide 51: Financial Strength
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI Financial Strength Philip Mayers Chief Financial Officer
Slide 52: Underwriting Performance Scorecard
Underwriting Performance Scorecard Premiums Written Premiums Earned 552 533 $MM 434 359 60 536 610 621 612 514 355 374 442 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD HLTV Portfolio Insurance Combined Ratio Underwriting Profit 14 17 17 17 311 287 257 42 37 218 33 33 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2009
Slide 53: Smaller MI Market and Better Borrower Quality
Smaller MI Market and Better Borrower Quality High Loan-to-Value Premiums Written 536 514 $MM 92 64 355 374 30 73 444 450 344 282 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Purchase Refinance Avg. Premium 2.09% 2.26% 2.29% 2.26% Rate Genworth MI Canada Inc. Financial Strength 53
Slide 54: Single Upfront Premium Provides Visibility
Single Single UpfrontPremium Upfront PremiumProvides ProvidesVisibility Visibility Earnings Curve Premiums Earned 20% 18% 16% 14% Q4 12% 10% 8% 610 621 612 6% 442 4% 2% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 20091 2010 2011 2012 YTD 1. Excludes $100 MM impact of change to the premium recognition curve in 2009 Single up
Slide 55: Seasoning Reduces Loss Exposure
Seasoning Seasoning ReducesLoss Reduces Loss Exposure Exposure Effective Loan-to-Value for High Loan-to-Value Insurance in Force Effective LTV Original LTV 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <=2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Seasoned Books Newer Books Insurance in force: $153B (67%)
Slide 56: Premiums Cover Losses in Stress Scenario
Premiums Cover Premiums Cover Losses Losses in inStress StressScenario Scenario Stress Scenario 2011 Book Example Full Cycle Scenario (Early 90’s recession) New Insurance in Force $22 B $22 B Claim Severity 27% 35% Gross Exposure $6 B $8 B Claim Frequency 3% 6% Loss Exposure $181 MM $480 MM Premiums
Slide 57: High Quality Investment Portfolio
High Quality Investment Portfolio Total $5.2 Billion ⁄ General Portfolio $4.4 Billion Preferred Shares Strong quality with 96% of and Common Guarantee bonds ‘A’ or better Fund Equity Generates ~35% of net operating income 6% 15% Cash Corporates 6% After Tax Investment Income 42% 15% Federal $ MM
Slide 58: Strong Capital Position With Flexibility
Strong Capital Position With Flexibility Minimum Capital Test 164% Strong ratings recently affirmed 162% DBRS S&P 156% Internal MCT Holding Co. Financial AA- A- Target 145% 145% 145% Strength Rating Stable Stable 149% Operating Insurance AA AA- 135% Co. Claims Paying Stable Stable Ability Modest
Slide 59: New Guarantee Framework Positive
New Guarantee Framework Positive Same level of guarantee Restricted to insuring Government Guarantee mortgages only Guarantee fund and related exit fees to be eliminated Current risk premium replaced by a risk fee (2.25% of premiums) Higher capital requirement to be set by Minister of Fina
Slide 60: New Guarantee Framework Positive for Reported Earnings
New Guarantee Framework Positive for Reported Earnings Proforma Income Statement Q3 ‘12 YTD Q3 ’12 YTD $MM Comments Actuals Adjustments Proforma Net Premiums $434 $7 $441 Risk Premium Written replaced by Risk Premiums Fee (expense 442 7 449 treatment) Earned Losses on (148) (148) claims Expenses (77
Slide 61: New Guarantee Framework Capital Neutral
New Guarantee Framework Capital Neutral Minimum Capital Test Adjustment for Q3 ’12 YTD $MM Q3 ‘12 YTD Actuals Guarantee Fund1 Proforma Capital Available $2,282 $547 $2,829 Capital Required 1,392 12 1,404 MCT Ratio 164% 201% Elimination of Guarantee Fund should result in ~ 40 point increase in MCT
Slide 62: Ongoing Capital Generation From Profits
Ongoing Capital Generation From Profits Operating EPS & Quarterly Dividends Capital Management Priorities Operating Diluted EPS Fund core growth Regular Dividends Paid Retained Profits Maintain strong ratings $3.231 $3.09 $3.02 Preserve financial flexibility and efficient capital structure $2.
Slide 63: Actively Managing Capital
Actively Managing Capital $850 MM $275 MM 10-Yr Debt IPO Issue $150 MM 5-Yr Debt Issue MCT Target MCT Target of 135% of 145% 2009 2010 2011 2012 $0.22 Initial Quarterly 18% Quarterly Dividend 12% Quarterly Dividend 10% Quarterly Dividend Dividend Increase to $0.26 Increase to $0.29 Increase to $0.32
Slide 64: Consistent Operating ROE
Consistent Operating ROE Loss Ratio Equities Offsetting Lower 13% Leverage Improvement Fixed Income Yield 50 bps (290 bps) 150 bps 0 bps 13% 12% 2009 Underwriting Investment Leverage Capital Base Sept YTD Profits Yield 2012 Capital Actions Impact Internal MCT Target Incr. (135% to 145%) (80)bps New
Slide 65: Consistent Growth in Book Value Per Share
Consistent Growth in Book Value Per Share Book Value Per Diluted Share $28.72 $26.94 BVPS $24.44 2.27 $22.40 2.16 Incl. AOCI 1.17 0.82 26.45 23.27 24.78 BVPS 21.58 Excl. AOCI 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD BVPS excl. AOCI AOCI Consistently Building Shareholder Value Genworth MI Canada Inc. Financial Streng
Slide 66: The Case for MIC
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI The Case for MIC Brian Hurley Chairman and CEO
Slide 67: Strong Foundation
Strong Foundation Long-tenured employees Mortgage insurance market experts High-touch, high-quality experience Proactive and innovative approach Unique people, skills, processes and technology Genworth MI Canada Inc. The Case For MIC 67
Slide 68: Multiple Customer Touch Points
Multiple Customer Touch Points Our Comprehensive Approach to Lender Partners Key Stakeholders Branches, Specialists, Mortgage Risk/Treasury C-Suite Underwriting Business Line Centres Sales Senior Leadership Senior Leadership Senior Leadership Underwriting Sales Sales Sales Operations Risk Risk Risk
Slide 69: Balanced Outlook
Balanced Outlook Trends Impact Top Line Improving market penetration + Smaller MI market and slowing housing market - Losses On Claims Stable unemployment + Stronger borrower quality + Investment Income Lower reinvestment yields - Elimination of exit fees + Capital Levels New guarantee framework + R
Slide 70: The Case For MIC: Sustainable Dividend
The Case For MIC: Sustainable Dividend Annualized Dividend Yield 4.8% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.2% 5.8% 5.4% 4.2% 3.6% 2.7% 2.7% 6.2% Dividends supported by stable operating earnings and strong capital Genworth MI Canada Inc. The Case For MIC 70
Slide 71: The Case For MIC
The Case For MIC Delivering Value Beyond MI Two decades of market experience MI critical component of Canada’s housing system Demonstrated execution through economic cycles Regulation is leveling the playing field Strong financial position Strong Fundamentals, Stable Earnings and Value Opp
Slide 72: Biographies
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI Biographies
Slide 73: Speaker Biographies
Speaker Biographies Brian Hurley Brian led the establishment of Genworth into the Chairman and CEO Canadian marketplace in 1994 and later led it through its initial public offering in 2009. He has more than 20 years of senior management experience in the mortgage insurance industry worldwide. From 2
Slide 74: Speaker Biographies
Speaker Biographies Stuart Levings Stuart is a qualified Chartered Accountant with Chief Operations Officer more than 17 years experience in various sectors. Since joining the Company in July 2000 as the Financial Controller, he has held senior positions in finance and product development, including
Slide 75: Speaker Biographies
Speaker Biographies Phil Mayers Phil has over 20 years of financial management experience in the mortgage insurance industry. Chief Financial Officer Prior to his current role, he held senior roles in operations and business development. Phil holds a CA and CMA professional designations. Samantha Ch
Slide 76: Questions?
Genworth MI Canada Inc. Delivering Value Beyond MI QUESTIONS?