Slide 1: The Mosaic Company, April 9-10, 2015
April 9-10, 2015 The Mosaic Company 1
Slide 2: Forward-looking statements
Click to edit Master title style 2 This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as the Ma’aden joint ve
Slide 3: Investment Thesis
Click to edit Master title style 3 • In this cyclical industry, the positive secular trends continue. • Long-term value creation is predicated on effective capital deployment. • Capital deployment near the trough of the cycle maximizes value creation: – Depressed investment values – Increasing lever
Slide 4: Why Now?
Why Now? 4
Slide 5: Near-term Grain and Oilseed Stocks
Near-term Grain and Oilseed Stocks 5 Wide range of potential outcomes for 2015 607 580 495 408 470 463 426 438 514 570 551 540 524 585 623 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F Stocks to Use Million Tonnes World Grain & Oils
Slide 6: Crop Nutrient Affordability Index
Crop Nutrient Affordability Index M o r e A f f o r d a b l e 6 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Affordability Metric AverageSource: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic
Slide 7: Improving Phosphate Outlook
55.0 57.5 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.9 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 2014 OCP Ma'aden Other China 2019 MMT P2O5 Source: CRU, January 2015. Global Phosphoric Acid Capacity F 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16F 18F 20F Op RateMMTP2O5 Source: CRU. January 2015. Global Phos
Slide 8: Relatively Stable Potash Outlook
Relatively Stable Potash Outlook Positive demand prospects Generally stable operating rate forecasts − Significant production increases required − No deep or prolonged down-cycle − Mosaic estimates of 80%-85% global operating rate 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Slide 9: Why Mosaic?
Why Mosaic? 9
Slide 10: Distribution Strength
Click to edit Master title style 10 Distribution Strength
Slide 11: Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position
Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position Largest and lowest quartile producer 11 Top 10 Phosphate Producers in 2013 Based on 2013 production M osaic's P2 O 5 production includes CF Industries' phosphate business P2 O 5 production based on PACID and SSP production OCP P2 O 5 Production split betwee
Slide 12: Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position
Based on 2013 production K2 O production based on M OP, SOP, and KM S production Source: Com pany reports, IFA, CRU, Fertecon and M osaic 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Uralkali Mosaic PotashCorp Belaruskali K+ S Israel Chemical Qinghai Salt Lake Agrium APC Vale Million Nutrient Tonnes Potash: Scale and Improv
Slide 13: Innovation, Beyond Products
Innovation, Beyond Products
Slide 14: Capital Management Priorities
$47 per Share Transformed Balance Sheet: Returned $3.2B in 2014 Repurchased 18% of outstanding shares since the split-off Committed to maintaining rating Liquidity buffer of 2.5 billion Leverage of 1.5x to 2.0x Capital Management Priorities 14 Expect to continue to generate strong cash flo
Slide 15: Consistent Strategy; Consistent Execution
15 Consistent Strategy; Consistent Execution + =
Slide 16: Pulling The Right Levers
16 Pulling The Right Levers Volume x Margin = Value Grow by optimizing: • Operations • Production Mix • Product Mix Grow through: • Brownfield Potash Expansions • MicroEssentials® Expansion • Strategic investments: • CF Phosphates • Ma’aden • ADM
Slide 17: Phosphates: Investing for Growth
$800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Phosphate Gross Margin Impact $1,466$937 ($ in millions) Phosphates: Investing for Growth * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. Ma’aden
Slide 18: Potash: Investing for Growth
Potash: Investing for Growth $923 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Potash Gross Margin Impact $1,076 ($ in millions) Volume Growth +17% * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. Source: Mosa
Slide 19: International Distribution: Investing in Growth
International Distribution: Investing in Growth $147 $256 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F International Distribution Gross Margin ($ in millions) Incremental MicroEssentials® & Volume Growth ADM Distribution Tonnes +74% * Assumptions in Appendix. Subjec
Slide 20: Meaningful Cash Flow After Dividends
$437 $680 $552 $1,025 $1,139 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Projected Cash Flow (After Dividends) Meaningful Cash Flow After Dividends 161% ($ in millions) * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor State
Slide 21: Smart Capital Deployment
Smart Capital Deployment Investment for Growth Shareholder Returns Capital Stewardship
Slide 22: Appendix
Appendix 22
Slide 23: Phosphates assumptions
Phosphates: Ma’aden JV contribution embedded in gross margin, actual reporting is as an equity investment under U.S. GAAP. ADM business includes an incremental, 2 million tonnes of blended product plus synergies. Raw material savings result of increased NH3 manufacturing from de-bottlenecking
Slide 24: Non-GAAP Reconciliation: CY2014 Cash Flow from Operations
CY2014 Cash Flow from Operations Reconciliation Adjusted Cash flow from operations (Non-GAAP) $1,726 Changes in working capital 300 Loss on write-down of Carlsbad 125 Unrealized loss on derivatives 35 Change in value of share repurchase agreement 60 Amortization of acquired inventory 49 Special equi
Slide 25: Tabular Representation of Data From Analyst Day
Tabular Representation of Data From Analyst Day Source: Mosaic 25 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Cash Flow from Operations $1,726(a) $2,285 $2,387 $2,594 $2,633 Capex ($906) ($1,204) ($1,415) ($1,129) ($1,034) Dividends ($383) ($401) ($420) ($440) ($461) FCF Less Dividends $437 $680 $552 $1,025 $1,138
Slide 26: Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region
Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (February 2015) Million Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP 2013R 2014E Oct Low 2015F Oct High 2015F Feb Low 2015F Feb High 2015F Comments China 21.5 21.6 21.8 22.1 21.8 22.1 Large but flat shipments in 2014. Forecast for 2015 unchanged. Moderate growth expected this yea
Slide 27: Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region
Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (February, 2015) Muriate of Potash Million Tonnes (KCl) 2013R 2014E Oct Low 2015F Oct High 2015F Feb Low 2015F Feb High 2015F Comments China 11.0 13.8 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.1 Shipments surged 2.8 mmt last year (+1.0 mmt production and +1.8 mmt net imports). We