Banca Transilvania Sa · BVB:TLV

Banca Transilvania Sa — Investor Day (2026)

14 slides from Banca Transilvania Sa's investor day presentation, 2026

  1. Slide 1: Investor Day: Setting the Next Stage of Growth

    INVESTOR DAY SETTING THE NEXT STAGE OF GROWTH

  2. Slide 2: Adjustment Now, Convergence Ahead

    ADJUSTMENT NOW CONVERGENCE AHEAD IOAN NISTOR

  3. Slide 3: Fast Convergence. Growth Recalibration

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map FAST CONVERGENCE. GROWTH RECALIBRATION 160 2015 GDP BN EUR 380 56 % 2025 Convergence with EU GDP GDP/CAPITA IN PPS BN EUR #2 LARGEST ECONOMY IN CEE #1 Poland 922 BN EUR #2 Romania 380 BN EUR 78 % #3 Czechia 346 BN EUR Convergence with EU GD

  4. Slide 4: A Challenging Path: But Not the End of Convergence

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map A CHALLENGING PATH: BUT NOT THE END OF CONVERGENCE GDP Real Growth Debt to GDP Budget Deficit EUR/RON -0.2 % 2026 61.8% 2026 6.0 % 2026 5.28 Year-end SHORT-TERM PRESSURE MEDIUM-TERM ANCHORS High inflation EU-funded investment Weak external

  5. Slide 5: Fiscal Credibility Will Set Romania's Risk Premium

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map FISCAL CREDIBILITY WILL SET ROMANIA’S RISK PREMIUM % OF GDP 63.4 61.8 59.3 54.8 9.3 7.9 6.0 5.3 2024 2025 2026 F 2027F ESA Deficit Public debt Eurostat / Ministry of Finance, BT Research Estimates THE KEY QUESTION: CAN CONSOLIDATION PROTECT

  6. Slide 6: GDP Contributors: Demand

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map GDP CONTRIBUTORS: DEMAND 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 Q1 2024 Q1 2026 Q3 2024 Q1 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q4 2024 Q2 2024 Q2 2025 Q2 2026 Final Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Net Exports Change in Invetories Real GDP (%,Yo

  7. Slide 7: GDP Contributors: Supply

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map GDP CONTRIBUTORS: SUPPLY 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 Q4 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Q3 2024 Q1 2025 Q3 2025 Q1 2026 Q4 2025 Q2 2026 Q2 2025 Industry Agriculture Services Construction Real GDP (%,YoY) GDP H1 2026: -0.7% Agriculture

  8. Slide 8: Romania, One of the EU's Lowest Investment Cost Bases

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map ROMANIA, ONE OF THE EU’S LOWEST INVESTMENT COST BASES 2025, EU=100 Croatia 73.2 Romania 75.8 Hungary 78.3 Poland 81.5 Bulgaria 82.7 Czechia 85.7 EU27 100.0 Germany 121.4 Eurostat, comparative price levels for investment, 2025 (EU=100) Price

  9. Slide 9: Software, the Investment Cost Advantage

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map SOFTWARE, THE INVESTMENT COST ADVANTAGE 2025, EU=100 EU = 100 Overall investment Machinery & equipment Metal products & Electrical & optical Transport equipment Software 75.8 97.9 equipment 99.7 95.1 94.2 100.1 Eurostat, comparative price l

  10. Slide 10: Construction, Clearest Investment Cost Advantage

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario Map CONSTRUCTION, CLEAREST INVESTMENT COST ADVANTAGE 2025, EU=100 EU = 100 Overall investment Construction 62.1 Residential buildings 47.6 Non-residential buildings 69.5 Civil engineering works 78.4 75.8 Eurostat, comparative price levels for i

  11. Slide 11: Untapped Potential: Internal Convergence

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario map UNTAPPED POTENTIAL: INTERNAL CONVERGENCE INTERNAL EU CONVERGENCE CONVERGENCE OECD 24/25 stages RRF ~EUR 7.3 BN SAFE ~EUR 16 BN ≥ 48 to 56 ≥ 71 to 77 ≥ 56 to 59 ≥ 77 to 188 EU COHESION MECHANISM ~EUR 32 BN ≥ 59 to 66 11

  12. Slide 12: Five Signals Will Determine the Next Move

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario map FIVE SIGNALS WILL DETERMINE THE NEXT MOVE SIGNAL CURRENT READ Budget execution Credible EU-fund absorption Strong Inflation & Wages Stabilising Current-account financing Stabilising Ratings & sovereign yields Improving perception 12

  13. Slide 13: The Baseline Is Highly Policy-Dependent

    Status Quo Premises Investment Price Watchlist Scenario map THE BASELINE IS HIGHLY POLICY-DEPENDENT FORECAST 2027 – BASELINE FOR MORE INSIGHTS GDP 2.3% Unemployment 6.2% Budget Deficit 5.3% of GDP Public Debt 63.4% EUR/RON 5.36% BT RESEARCH Key Policy Rate 5.75% BT Research Forecast 13

  14. Slide 14: Investor Day: Setting the Next Stage of Growth

    INVESTOR DAY SETTING THE NEXT STAGE OF GROWTH

Banca Transilvania — Investor Day (2026) on 6ix