Alcoa Corporation · NYSE:AA

Alcoa — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation

43 slides from Alcoa's earnings presentation, Apr 16, 2025

  1. Slide 1: 1st Quarter Earnings

    st 1 Quarter Earnings Alcoa Corporation April 16, 2025 1

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements

    Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements inclu

  3. Slide 3: Important information

    Important information Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains reference to certain financial measures that are not calculated and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP). Alcoa Corporation believes that the presentation of thes

  4. Slide 4: William Oplinger

    William Oplinger President and Chief Executive Officer 4

  5. Slide 5: Strong first quarter; progressing on 2025 key areas of focus

    Strong first quarter; progressing on 2025 key areas of focus Key areas of focus as shared in 4Q24 earnings Safe operations ▪ Safety performance improved in correlate to 1Q25 stability, ▪ Strong 1Q25 financial and productivity and production results profitability Our actions ▪ Completed $1B debt offe

  6. Slide 6: Molly Beerman

    Molly Beerman Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 6

  7. Slide 7: Adjusted EBITDA and EPS rise sequentially

    Adjusted EBITDA and EPS rise sequentially Quarterly income statement summary 4Q24 1Q25 Change Third party realized prices ($/mt) Realized primary aluminum price $3,006 $3,213 $207 Realized alumina price $636 $575 $(61) Income statement highlights (millions, except per share amounts) Revenue $3,486 $

  8. Slide 8: EBITDA improves with higher metal prices

    EBITDA improves with higher metal prices 1Q25 Sequential changes in Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, $M 49 56 855 76 4Q24 1Q25 Change (12) (3) Alumina1 $716 $664 $(52) (64) (6) Aluminum1 194 134 (60) 86 Transformation (18) (12) 6 Intersegment (156) 103 259 eliminations 677 Other corporate (5

  9. Slide 9: Generated cash and repositioned debt

    Generated cash and repositioned debt Quarter cash bridge and 1Q25 Cash flow information, $M 12/31/24 to 03/31/25 Cash balance changes 1Q25 Cash flow information 855 ▪ Generated $75 cash from operations ▪ Debt repositioning closer to operations (446) ▪ $985 net proceeds from issuance in Australia (93

  10. Slide 10: Strong key metrics to start 2025

    Strong key metrics to start 2025 Key financial metrics, 1Q25 Return on Days working equity 39.1% capital 47 Days • 1Q25 Return on equity highest since 1Q22 • Working capital increased Capital returns to stockholders $26M Adjusted net debt $2.1B 13 days sequentially; same as 1Q24 at 47 days Free cash

  11. Slide 11: Optimal capital structure targets $1.0B - $1.5B Adjusted net debt

    Optimal capital structure targets $1.0B - $1.5B Adjusted net debt Capital allocation process Determine optimal Define debt level for IG Capital structure and capital structure leverage metrics allocation • Target Investment ~$2.1B - $2.5B Grade (IG) leverage Adjusted debt1 • Target Adjusted net debt

  12. Slide 12: 2025 Outlook

    2025 Outlook FY25 Key metrics as of March 31, 2025 Income statement excl. special items impacts Cash flow impacts 1Q25 YTD Actual FY25 Outlook 1Q25 YTD Actual FY25 Outlook Alumina production (Mmt) 2.4 9.5 – 9.7 Pension / OPEB cash funding $13M ~ $70M Alumina shipments (Mmt) 3.2 13.1 – 13.3 Stock rep

  13. Slide 13: William Oplinger

    William Oplinger President and Chief Executive Officer 13

  14. Slide 14: 25% tariff on Canadian aluminum to U.S., immaterial supply impact

    25% tariff on Canadian aluminum to U.S., immaterial supply impact Applicable U.S. tariff summary 2019 - 2024 March 2025 April 2025 Section 232 25% tariffs implemented Section 232 10% tariffs 25% tariffs; tariffs aluminum on March 12; since 2018, Canada no exemptions, no (all origins) no exemptions,

  15. Slide 15: Canada most strategic supplier of primary aluminum to the U.S.

    Canada most strategic supplier of primary aluminum to the U.S. U.S. primary aluminum imports by country of origin (2024 full-year actuals, Mmt) 2.9 Canada 0.7 Middle East 0.1 U.S. primary aluminum balance India 4.1 4.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 Australasia Apparent Production Exports2 Imports2 0.2 Consumption1 Ar

  16. Slide 16: Alumina price returns to historical average

    Alumina price returns to historical average Alumina market dynamics Alumina price lower than record highs; increased share of unprofitable refineries in China Platts FOB WA Alumina, $/mt Global refineries business cost curve for 2025 at spot alumina prices, $/mt World ex-China China More than 80% of

  17. Slide 17: Aluminum prices respond to tariffs; resilient 1Q25 order book

    Aluminum prices respond to tariffs; resilient 1Q25 order book Aluminum market dynamics LME aluminum price down from 1Q25; Midwest premium is up but below range of analysts’ forecasts LME aluminum, $/mt Reciprocal tariffs Midwest premium, $/mt Increased Section 232 announced tariffs announced 2,800 1

  18. Slide 18: San Ciprián: formed joint venture, resuming production at smelter

    San Ciprián: formed joint venture, resuming production at smelter Timeline of actions for San Ciprián complex 75% Owner 25% Owner 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 • Sale process conducted • Announced proposed • Announced MoU • Resuming smelter production per viability agreement and concluded with no agreement wi

  19. Slide 19: Well-positioned to capture opportunities and navigate challenges

    Well-positioned to capture opportunities and navigate challenges Alcoa’s competitive advantages make it a premier aluminum company ✓ Vertical integration from mine to metal ✓ Long-term supply contracts with customers; preferred for security of ✓ Alumina: world class global network of supply Pure pla

  20. Slide 20: 1Q25 accomplishments; looking ahead to 2Q25

    1Q25 accomplishments; looking ahead to 2Q25 First quarter summary ▪ No fatal or serious injuries (FSIAs) ▪ Repositioned debt to Australia ▪ Formed JV and resuming production at San Ciprián smelter ▪ Strong smelter production ▪ Active industry advocacy Looking ahead ▪ Complete sale of Ma’aden joint v

  21. Slide 21: Appendix

    Appendix 21

  22. Slide 22: Maximizing value creation through balanced use of cash

    Maximizing value creation through balanced use of cash Capital allocation framework and value creation considerations Capital allocation framework Maximize value creation Maintain strong balance sheet Return cash to stockholders through the cycle ▪ 1Q25 dividend payments totaled $26 million (targeti

  23. Slide 23: Quarterly income statement

    Quarterly income statement Quarterly income statement for 4Q24 and 1Q25 Sequential Millions, except realized prices and per share amounts 4Q24 1Q25 Change Realized primary aluminum price ($/mt) $3,006 $3,213 $207 Realized alumina price ($/mt) $636 $575 $(61) Revenue $3,486 $3,369 $(117) Cost of good

  24. Slide 24: Special items

    Special items Breakdown of special items by income statement classification – gross basis Millions, except per share amounts 4Q24 1Q25 Description of significant 1Q25 special items Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation $202 $548 Earnings per common share $0.76 $2.07 Special items $74 $20 Port

  25. Slide 25: Quarterly income statement excluding special items

    Quarterly income statement excluding special items Quarterly income statement excluding special items for 4Q24 and 1Q25 Sequential Millions, except realized prices and per share amounts 4Q24 1Q25 Change Realized primary aluminum price ($/mt) $3,006 $3,213 $207 Realized alumina price ($/mt) $636 $575

  26. Slide 26: 1Q25 Financial summary

    1Q25 Financial summary Three months ending March 31, 2025, excluding special items Intersegment Other Alcoa Millions Alumina Aluminum4 Transformation eliminations corporate Corporation Total revenue $2,175 $1,905 $7 $(723) $5 $3,369 Third-party revenue $1,463 $1,901 $3 - $2 $3,369 Adjusted EBITDA1 $

  27. Slide 27: 1Q25 Segment Adjusted EBITDA drivers

    1Q25 Segment Adjusted EBITDA drivers Segment Adjusted EBITDA sequential changes, $M Segment Segment Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA Metal Raw Production EBITDA 4Q24 Currency prices API materials Energy Price/mix Volume costs Other 1Q25 Alumina $716 (33) 0 (64) (7) 17 40 (53) 33 15 $664 Aluminum $194 19 86

  28. Slide 28: Adj. operating costs and Segment Adj. EBITDA reconciliation

    Adj. operating costs and Segment Adj. EBITDA reconciliation Adjusted operating costs of produced alumina and aluminum shipped Alumina segment 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 FY24 1Q25 Adj. operating costs ($M) $796 $814 $734 $766 $3,110 $723 Produced alumina shipments (kmt) 2,621 2,595 2,366 2,468 10,050 2,316

  29. Slide 29: Aluminum value chain

    Aluminum value chain 2025 YTD Alcoa shipments by product type Bauxite Alumina Aluminum 11.3 Mdmt shipments 3.2 Mmt shipments 0.6 Mmt shipments Intersegment Third party 0% 26% Intersegment 34% 66% 74% Third party Intrasegment 100% Third party 29

  30. Slide 30: Composition of alumina and aluminum production costs

    Composition of alumina and aluminum production costs Alcoa 1Q25 production cash costs Alumina refining Input Inventory Pricing FY25 annual cost Bauxite cost flow convention sensitivity Conversion 26% 34% Caustic soda 5 - 6 Months Quarterly, Spot $10M per $10/dmt Quarterly, 91% with Natural gas 1 Mon

  31. Slide 31: 2025 Business information

    2025 Business information Estimated annual Segment Adjusted EBITDA sensitivities Midwest Midwest $Millions LME Paid Unpaid Tariff AUD BRL CAD EUR ISK NOK + API + + Europe Japan (LME + 0.01 + 0.10 + 0.01 + 0.01 + 10 + 0.10 Segment $100/mt + $10/mt $100/mt $100/mt + $100/mt + $100/mt +$100/mt) 0.631 5

  32. Slide 32: Currency impacts on Segment Adjusted EBITDA

    Currency impacts on Segment Adjusted EBITDA Currency balance sheet revaluation and EBITDA sensitivities impact ($M, except currencies) AUD BRL CAD EUR ISK NOK Total 03/31/25 currencies 0.63 5.77 1.43 1.08 132.33 10.51 1Q25 currency average 0.63 5.85 1.44 1.05 138.62 11.11 1Q25 Balance sheet revaluat

  33. Slide 33: Additional business considerations

    Additional business considerations Items expected to impact Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted net income for 2Q25 Expected sequential impacts on Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, excluding indexed sales prices or currency impacts: ▪ We expect the Alumina segment to maintain strong level of perform

  34. Slide 34: Investments summary

    Investments summary Investments listing and income statement location Ownership Carrying value as of Income statement location of Investee Country Nature of investment4 interest March 31, 2025 equity earnings ELYSIS Limited Partnership Canada Aluminum smelting technology 48.235% Ma’aden Aluminium Co

  35. Slide 35: Alcoa 2023 progress on sustainability goals

    Alcoa 2023 progress on sustainability goals Alcoa strategic long-term sustainability goals, baseline and progress Goal Description 2015 Baseline 2023 Progress Zero fatalities and serious injuries (life-threatening or life-altering 5 fatal or serious 0 fatalities and 2 serious Health and Safety injur

  36. Slide 36: Production and capacity information

    Production and capacity information Alcoa Corporation annual consolidated amounts as of March 31, 2025 Alumina refining, kmt Aluminum smelting, kmt Facility Country Capacity Curtailed Facility Country Capacity Curtailed Kwinana Australia 2,190 2,190 Portland Australia 197 33 Pinjarra Australia 4,700

  37. Slide 37: Adjusted EBITDA reconciliations

    Adjusted EBITDA reconciliations Millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 FY24 1Q25 Net (loss) income attributable to Alcoa $(252) $20 $90 $202 $60 $548 Add: Net (loss) income attributable to noncontrolling interest (55) 11 8 - (36) - (Benefit from) provision for income taxes (18) 61 86 136 265 120 Other expense

  38. Slide 38: Free cash flow reconciliation

    Free cash flow reconciliation Millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 FY24 1Q25 Cash (used for) provided from operations $(223) $287 $143 $415 $622 $75 Capital expenditures (101) (164) (146) (169) (580) (93) Free cash flow (324) 123 (3) 246 42 (18) Contributions from noncontrolling interest 61 4 - - 65 27 Dist

  39. Slide 39: Net debt reconciliations

    Net debt reconciliations 1Q24 4Q24 1Q25 Alcoa Alcoa Alcoa $M Cons. NCI Prop. Cons. NCI Prop. Cons. NCI1 Prop. Short-term borrowings $52 $- $52 $50 $- $50 $45 $- $45 Long-term debt due within one year 79 31 48 75 - 75 75 - 75 Long-term debt, less amount due within one year 2,469 - 2,469 2,470 - 2,470

  40. Slide 40: DWC working capital and Days working capital reconciliations

    DWC working capital and Days working capital reconciliations Millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 Receivables from customers $869 $939 $862 $1,096 $1,203 Add: Inventories 2,048 1,975 2,096 1,998 2,182 Less: Accounts payable, trade 1,586 1,619 1,544 1,805 1,629 DWC working capital $1,331 $1,295 $1,414 $

  41. Slide 41: Annualized Return on Equity (ROE)

    Annualized Return on Equity (ROE) ROE Reconciliation and calculation information as of March 31, 2025 Millions 1Q24 1Q25 (Net Loss/Income Attributable to Alcoa + Special Items1) Numerator: ROE % = X 100 Net (loss) incomes attributable to Alcoa Corporation $(252) $548 (Total Assets – Total Liabilitie

  42. Slide 42: Glossary of terms

    Glossary of terms Abbreviations listed in alphanumeric order Abbreviation Description Abbreviation Description % pts Percentage points FOB WA Freight on board Western Australia 1H## Six months ending June 30 FY## Twelve months ending December 31 1Q## Three months ending March 31 GAAP Accounting prin

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