Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — MUFG Spring Utility Day 2020
38 slides from Ameren's conference presentation, Mar 25, 2020
Slide 1: Customers at the Center
Customers at the Center MUFG Spring Utility Day Mar. 25, 2020
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented core earnings per share, which is a non-GAAP financial measure and may not be comparable to that of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is included in this presentation.
Slide 3: Ameren Corporation Representatives
Ameren Corporation Representatives Bruce Steinke Darryl Sagel Andrew Kirk Megan McPhail Senior Vice President, Vice President and Director, Investor Manager, Investor Finance and Treasurer Relations Relations Chief Accounting Officer 3
Slide 4: Company Description
Company Description Ameren Businesses Fully rate-regulated electric and natural gas utility Ameren Missouri • Electric transmission, distribution, and generation business Corporate Headquarters 2.4M electric and a natural gas distribution business in Missouri regulated Electric Service Territory cus
Slide 5: Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances
Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances1 $ in millions as of Dec. 31, 2019 All Moody’s outlooks “Stable”; all S&P outlooks “Stable” Ameren Corporation (Baa1/BBB+) Sr. Unsecured (Baa1/BBB) - $1,150 Commercial Paper (P-2/A-2) - $176 Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois ATXI (Baa1/BBB+) (
Slide 6: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies • Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our cu
Slide 7: Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks
Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking • Allowed ROE is 10.38%1, includes MISO participation adder of 50 basis points; ~54% average equity ratio Ameren • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation Transmission • Constru
Slide 8: Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and Environment
Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and Environment Strong long-term Attractive Attractive total growth outlook dividend return potential • Affirm expected 6% to 8% EPS CAGR • Annualized equivalent dividend rate • Track record of delivering strong from 2018-20231,2,3 of $1.98 per share
Slide 9: Delivering Strong Value to our Customers
Delivering Strong Value to our Customers Increased Customer Improved Reliability1 Affordable Rates2 Outage JD Power Satisfaction3 Duration (min) ¢/KWh Score 300 +43% 15 750 +17% Better Better 725 734 276 731 250 13.19 12.85 723 10 700 200 10.08 10.01 690 675 150 663 157 5 650 651 100 625 628 50 0 60
Slide 10: Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth
Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth Weather-Normalized Core Dividends Paid per Share3 Weather-Normalized Earnings per Diluted Share1 Dividend Payout Ratio +60% or $2.00 +20% 80% $3.50 2013 to 2019 ~8% CAGR $1.98 $3.50 75% 2013 to 2019 $1.92 $3.32 $3.10 $1.85 $3.05 70% $1.75 $1.78 $2.88 $2
Slide 11: Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS Growth
Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS Growth • Expect 2020 EPS in a range of $3.40 to $3.601 Long-Term EPS Growth and • Remain on track to deliver strong long-term earnings 2020E EPS Guidance1 growth1 – Affirm expected 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2018-20231,2,3 2024 – Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2020-
Slide 12: Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions
Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions1 Increased five-year infrastructure investment plan by $2.7B reflecting increased investment in all segments2 $16 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure Investment 2019 to 2024E Regulated Five-Year Rate 2020-2024 Infrastructure Rate Base4 Base CAG
Slide 13: Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade
Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade1 Modernizing grid and investing in cleaner generation for the long-term benefit of customers, shareholders and environment Investment Plan 2020-2024 Investment Opportunities 2025-2029 $36B+ ($ billions) $20+ Strong Pipeline of Re
Slide 14: Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC
Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC on Feb. 26 Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • $1.0 billion invested in 2019 to improve reliability and provide clean energy to the customers and communities we serve – Significant in
Slide 15: Executing Our Strategy – Renewable Energy Investments
Executing Our Strategy – Renewable Energy Investments Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers, shareholders and environment • Build-transfer agreements in place for 700 MW of wind generation in Missouri, ~$1.2 billion investment, to comply with Miss
Slide 16: Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid
Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers, shareholders and environment • Investing to modernize energy grid – Provide a more safe, reliable, resilient and secure energy grid – Enable two-way energ
Slide 17: Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives
Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks Missouri Electric Rate Review Update • In Mar. 2020, MoPSC approved $32 million annual revenue decrease; ~1% decrease in customer rates
Slide 18: Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d: Illinois Electric and Gas
Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution • In Dec. 2019, the ICC approved a $7 million net annual decrease in electric formula rate
Slide 19: Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d
Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution • Downstate Clean Energy Affordability Act1 (HB 5673/SB 3977) introduced in Feb. 2020 – Allows uti
Slide 20: Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d
Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies • In Nov. 2019, FERC issued order related to first and second MISO complaint cases – Established new base ROE methodology and set new ba
Slide 21: Financial Strategy
Financial Strategy • Strong Liquidity Profile – $2.3 billion of combined credit under facilities maturing in Dec. 2024 • $1.1 billion Illinois credit facility ($800 million sublimit for Ameren Illinois; $500 million for Ameren Corp.) • $1.2 billion Missouri credit facility ($850 million sublimit for
Slide 22: Expected 2020-2024 Funding Plan
Expected 2020-2024 Funding Plan1 • Cash from Operations – Return of capital through depreciation in rates – Return on equity-financed portion of rate base – Expect income tax payments totaling ~$150 to ~$200 million from 2020-2024 • ~$1.6 to $1.7 billion of income tax deferrals and tax asset utiliza
Slide 23: 2020 Long-Term Debt Financings and Maturities
2020 Long-Term Debt Financings and Maturities • On Mar. 20, Ameren Missouri issued $465 million of 2.95% first mortgage bonds due 2030 Long-term Debt Maturities Outlook – Proceeds used to repay short-term debt, including short- As of Dec. 31, 2019 ($ in millions) term debt incurred to repay at matur
Slide 24: Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future
Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future Innovative Programs to Meet Customer Needs and Rising Expectations Utility-owned solar Subscription program generation facilities for MO available to MO residential non-residential customer Neighborhood Community and small business parking lots, open lan
Slide 25: ESG: Environmental Focus – Achieving Balance Responsibly
ESG: Environmental Focus – Achieving Balance Responsibly • Transitioning Ameren Missouri’s generation to a cleaner, more diverse portfolio in a responsible fashion – 2017 preferred plan1 includes addition of 700 MW of wind Ameren’s Planned CO2 Emissions generation by 2020 and 100 MW of solar generat
Slide 26: ESG: Social and Governance Focus – Culture of Sustainability
ESG: Social and Governance Focus – Culture of Sustainability Hyperlinked below • Diverse Board of Directors focused on strong accountability and governance – Board committed to maintaining a balance of perspectives, qualifications, qualities and skills • ~55% women or minorities • Average tenure of
Slide 27: Summary
Summary Expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2020 with guidance in a range of $3.40 to $3.60 per diluted share1 Successfully executing our strategy; well positioned for future growth Strong long-term growth outlook • Affirm 6% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2018-20231,2 • Expect 6% to
Slide 28: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 29: 2019 Earnings Analysis
2019 Earnings Analysis Key Earnings Variance Drivers ↓ Ameren Missouri earnings — Lower electric retail sales: ~$(0.26) Core1 Diluted EPS • Weather vs. prior year: ~$(0.29); vs. normal ~+$0.03 2018 vs. 2019 — Callaway refueling and maintenance outage vs. none in 2018: $(0.09) — Higher property tax e
Slide 30: 2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions1 ↑ New electric service rates expected to be effective as early as Apr. 1, 2020 — Reflecting new infrastructure investments and lower fuel and transportation costs ↑ Callaway refueling and maintenance outage scheduled for fall 2020 vs. spring 2019:
Slide 31: 2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions1 ↑ Higher expected year-end rate base reflecting infrastructure investments Ameren Illinois — Year-end estimated rate base: ~$3.6 billion compared to ~$3.4 billion in 2019 Electric ↓ Allowed ROE of 8.0% based on forecasted 2020 average 30-year Trea
Slide 32: GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations
GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GAAP Earnings Per Diluted Share $1.18 $2.40 $2.59 $2.68 2.14 $3.32 $3.35 Exclude results from discontinued operations 0.87 — (0.01) — — — — Less: Income tax expense / (benefit) 0.05 — (0.20) — — —
Slide 33: Weather-Normalized Earnings Per Share Reconciliations
Weather-Normalized Earnings Per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Core1 Diluted EPS $2.10 $2.40 $2.56 $2.68 $2.83 $3.37 $3.35 Effects of weather at Ameren Missouri 0.03 0.05 (0.04) 0.16 (0.07) 0.43 0.04 Less: Income tax expense (0.01) (0.02) 0.01 (0.06) 0.0
Slide 34: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar MARCH 2020 APRIL 2020 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 Morgan BAML New York Europe Stanley Power Investor Investor Utilities Utilities Meetings Meeting Conf. Conf. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Wells Q1 Q
Slide 35: Select Regulatory Matters
Select Regulatory Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Order approving electric rate review filing: Docket No. ER-2019-0335 • Smart Energy Plan filing: Docket No. EO-2019-0044 • Order approving request regarding Callaway Energy Center outage expenses: Docket No. EU-2020-0114 • Order approvin
Slide 36: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations AFUDC – Allowance for funds used during construction IEIMA – Illinois Energy Infrastructure Modernization Act ALJ – Administrative Law Judge IRP – Integrated resource plan ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois ISRS – Infrastructure System Replacement Surc
Slide 37: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements The following factors, in addition to those discussed elsewhere in this presentation, in Ameren's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, and in its other reports filed with the SEC, could cause actual results to differ materially from management e
Slide 38: Forward-Looking Statements, cont’d
Forward-Looking Statements, cont’d • the construction, installation, performance, and cost recovery of generation, transmission, and distribution assets; • the effects of failures of electric generation, electric and natural gas transmission or distribution, or natural gas storage facilities systems