Slide 1: Second Quarter 2020 Results
August 5, 2020 Second Quarter 2020 R E S U LT S
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Safe Harbor Statements (Cont'd)
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS (CONT’D) About Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Items Affecting Comparability “Adjusted EBITDA” (EBITDA as adjusted for unrealized gains or losses from hedging activities, tax receivable agreement impacts, reorganization items, and certain other items described from time to tim
Slide 4: Agenda
AGENDA I Welcome and Safe Harbor Molly Sorg, VP Investor Relations and Chief Sustainability Officer II Q2 2020 Highlights Curt Morgan, President and Chief Executive Officer III Financial Highlights David Campbell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer V i s t ra I n v e s t o r P re s
Slide 5: Q2 2020 Highlights
Q2 2020 Highlights Curt Morgan President and Chief Executive Officer V i s t ra I n v e s t o r P re s e n t a t io n / Q2 2020
Slide 6: Q2 2020 Financial Results
FINANCIAL RESULTS Q2 2020 Financial Results Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Q2 2020 Adjusted EBITDA1 $929 YTD 2020 Adjusted EBITDA1 $1,779 • Vistra delivered second quarter Adjusted EBITDA from Ongoing Operations 30% above second quarter 2019 results2 ‒ Integrated business model delivered strong per
Slide 7: Observed Demand by Market
OBSERVED DEMAND BY MARKET As of mid-July, demand has rebounded meaningfully in the markets where we operate, with ERCOT demand relatively flat to expected pre -COVID levels Range of Observed Demand Declines thru Mid-July1 ERCOT ERCOT Base Peak PJM NE NYSIO CAISO MISO 0% 0% -2% -2% -1% -3% -1% -2% -4
Slide 8: ERCOT Forward Curve Volatility
ERCOT FORWARD CURVE VOLATILITY Vistra has consistently delivered financial results in line with our point of view; estimating Vistra’s future EBITDA based on a single-point in time on the forward curve marginalizes our opportunistic hedging capabilities and our proven ability to optimize the value o
Slide 9: Opportunities for Scarcity Pricing
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCARCITY PRICING The ERCOT market remains tight and, as demonstrated in both 2018 and 2019, it only takes a few intervals with a combination of high temperatures, low wind, or unplanned outages to realize scarcity pricing intervals, increasing the around -the-clock price High Load
Slide 10: Supporting Our Stakeholders
SUPPORTING OUR STAKEHOLDERS One of Vistra’s four core principles is “We care about our stakeholders including our people, customers, communities, suppliers, and investors.” Vistra also strives to maintain transparent and positive relationships with elected officials and regulators People Communities
Slide 11: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights David Campbell Chief Financial Officer V i s t ra I n v e s t o r P re s e n t a t io n / Q2 2020
Slide 12: Q2 2020 Financial Results
Q2 2020 FINANCIAL RESULTS Following two consecutive quarters of outperformance in 2020 relative to expectations, we believe Vistra is well-positioned to deliver strong full-year results ONGOING OPERATIONS HIGHLIGHTS ADJUSTED EBITDA1 ($ millions) Q2 2020 Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA1: $929 million $1,779
Slide 13: Capital Allocation
CAPITAL ALLOCATION Vistra’s integrated business model with its high conversion of EBITDA to free cash flow enables a flexible and diverse capital allocation approach • Priority to reduce debt to track toward long-term leverage target of ~2.5x Net Debt/EBITDA ‒ Anticipate >$1.3 billion of capital wil
Slide 14: Virtual Investor Event Preview
VIRTUAL INVESTOR EVENT PREVIEW On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 Vistra will host a ~90 minute virtual investor event announcing our long-term capital allocation plan and portfolio repositioning strategy, which we expect will include the following topics Guidance Announcement • 2020 Guidance Update • 2
Slide 15: Appendix
Appendix V i s t ra I n v e s t o r P re s e n t a t io n / Q2 2020
Slide 16: Corporate Debt Profile
CORPORATE DEBT PROFILE ($ millions) Q2 2020 2020E Term Loan B and Funded Revolver1 $3,136 $2,572 Senior Secured Notes 3,100 3,100 Senior Unsecured Notes2 3,766 3,600 Other3 646 573 Total Long-Term Debt $10,648 $9,845 Less: cash and cash equivalents4 (382) (400) Total Net Debt $10,266 $9,445 Adjusted
Slide 17: Select Debt Balances
SELECT DEBT BALANCES FUNDED DEBT TRANCHES As of June 30, 20201 ($ millions) Issuer Series Principal Outstanding Secured Debt Vistra Operations Senior Secured Revolving Credit Loans $550 Vistra Operations Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2025 2,586 Vistra Operations 3.550% Senior Secured Not
Slide 18: Capital Expenditures
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL EXPENDITURES1 ($ millions) 2020E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 $533 Nuclear Fuel 85 Non-Recurring4 3 Growth5 315 Total Capital Expenditures $935 Non-Recurring4 (3) Growth5 (315) Adjusted Capital Expenditures $618 1 Capital summary for 2020 Guidance prepared as of Novem
Slide 19: Second Quarter Retail Metrics
SECOND QUARTER RETAIL METRICS Q2 2020 RETAIL HIGHLIGHTS RETAIL VOLUME All markets (electric volumes in TWh) 21.5 ✓ ERCOT weather was consistently mild throughout the quarter 3.8 16.7 ✓ Grew residential counts in ERCOT across all retail 2.6 brands while managing operational and channel impacts 9.5 of
Slide 20: Second Quarter Generation Metrics
SECOND QUARTER GENERATION METRICS TOTAL GENERATION CAPACITY FACTOR (CCGT) TWhs Q2 2019 Q2 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % Q2 2019 Q2 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 ERCOT 18.9 18.9 39.0 38.7 ERCOT 49% 42% 49% 47% PJM 10.6 11.7 25.1 23.9 PJM 60% 68% 67% 70% NY/NE 3.7 3.0 8.6 6.7 NY/NE 36% 29% 42% 33% MISO 3.4 2.3 8.
Slide 21: Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities
HEDGE PROFILE & PORTFOLIO SENSITIVITIES Effective: 6/30/2020 Balance 2020 2021 MISO/ MISO/ ERCOT PJM NE/NY TOTAL ERCOT PJM NE/NY TOTAL CAISO CAISO Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 25 9 - 8 42 49 18 - 16 83 % Hedged 100% 100% - 100% 100% 83% 97% - 80% 85% Net Position 0 0
Slide 22: Market Pricing
MARKET PRICING Effective: 6/30/2020 Jul-Dec'20 2021 Jul-Dec'20 2021 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads ($/mwhr) ERCOT North Hub $38.30 $30.05 Approx. Contribution ERCOT West Hub $36.67 $28.49 ERCOT PJM AD Hub $23.46 $26.73 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $21.66 $9.08 PJM Ni Hub $20.43 $23.52
Slide 23: Capacity Positions
CAPACITY POSITIONS Market Tenor MW Position Average Price PJM $/mw-day RTO 2020/20211 5,365 $88.22 2021/2022 5,340 $135.01 ComEd 2020/2021 2,339 $203.72 2021/2022 2,514 $199.67 MAAC 2020/2021 547 $116.74 2021/2022 548 $150.95 EMAAC 2020/2021 803 $193.90 2021/2022 798 $171.02 ATSI 2020/2021 111 $53.7
Slide 24: Asset Fleet Details
ASSET FLEET DETAILS Ownership Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW)1 Interest2 Moss Landing 1 & 2 Moss Landing, CA CAISO CCGT Gas 1,020 100% Oakland Oakland, CA CAISO CT Oil 165 100 TOTAL CAISO 1,185 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 100% Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,
Slide 25: Asset Fleet Details (Cont'd)
ASSET FLEET DETAILS (CONT’D) Ownership Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW)1 Interest2 Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 100% TOTAL NYISO 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 100% Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 100 Casco Bay Veazie, ME
Slide 26: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q2 2020 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – Q2 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2020 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income (loss) $2
Slide 27: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 1H 2020 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 1H 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2020 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income (loss) $32
Slide 28: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q2 2019 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – Q2 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 20191 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income (loss)
Slide 29: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 1H 2019 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 1H 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 20191 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income (loss) $(
Slide 30: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2020 Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2020 GUIDANCE VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2020 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 849 1,081 (95) (75) 754 1,006 Income tax expense 252 320 - - 252 320 Int
Slide 31: End Slide
END SLIDE V i s t ra I n v e s t o r P re s e n t a t io n / Q2 2020