Slide 1: Making an Impact: Third Quarter 2016 Earnings
Making anImpact Third Quarter 2016 Earnings November 4, 2016 Illinois Substation Construction
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented core earnings, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is included either on the slide where the non-GAAP measur
Slide 3: Business Update
Business Update Warner Baxter Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 4: Earnings Summary
Earnings Summary Diluted EPS Key Q3 Earnings Variance Drivers: 2015 vs. 2016 Higher electric sales to residential and commercial customers driven by warmer summer temperatures 1 $2.56 Increased investment in electric transmission and $2.44 distribution services infrastructure made under modern,
Slide 5: Business Update
Business Update Our strategic plan Capital • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory Expenditures frameworks YTD Sept 30 • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy policies • Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for
Slide 6: Business Update, cont’d
Business Update, cont’d Ameren Illinois Executing our plan, cont’d AMI Plan • Illinois electric and natural gas distribution Through 2019 (in thousands of meters – Invested ~$480 million in distribution infrastructure projects in the first nine and modules) months of 2016 • Investments in smart elec
Slide 7: Business Update, cont’d
Business Update, cont’d Executing our plan, cont’d • Missouri electric service – $206 million annual electric revenue increase request pending – Efforts to enhance Missouri regulatory framework continue • MoPSC - opened case to consider policies to improve way it regulates electric utilities – Amere
Slide 8: Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks
Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks1 $11.1 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure 2015 to 2020E Regulated 5-Yr Rate Investment 2016-2020 Infrastructure Rate Base2 Base CAGR % of $16.7 Total ~6.5% Ameren Ameren $3.5 Illinois Illinois $12.1 Electric Transmission 53% 20% $2.0 B
Slide 9: Investing Strategically, with Focus on Transmission and Distribution
Investing Strategically, with Focus on Transmission and Distribution • We will continue to be strategic and disciplined in our 2015 to 2020E Regulated investment approach Infrastructure Rate Base1 • Investing to modernize the grid to make it smarter and 100% 100% to meet our customers’ future energy
Slide 10: Creating and Capitalizing on Opportunities beyond 2020
Creating and Capitalizing on Opportunities beyond 2020 Illinois Electric and Natural Gas Delivery • System modernization projects including replacement of aging substations and electric distribution and gas distribution infrastructure, including expected new federal safety regulations for gas system
Slide 11: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 2020 1 – Sustainable infrastructure investment pipeline • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 20201 – Based on Feb. 2016 adjusted 2016 EPS gui
Slide 12: Financial and Regulatory Update
Financial and Regulatory Update Marty Lyons Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 13: Earnings Analysis for Third Quarter
Earnings Analysis for Third Quarter Diluted EPS Key Earnings Variance Drivers Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2016 Warmer summer temperatures: ~+$0.11 – ~+$0.10 vs. normal temperatures $1.52 $1.41 Increased electric transmission and distribution service infrastructure investments by ATXI and Ameren Illinois, inc
Slide 14: 2016 EPS Guidance: Select Balance of Year Considerations
2016 EPS Guidance: Select Balance of Year Considerations Q4 2016E compared to Q4 2015: 2016E Diluted EPS Return to normal temperatures: ~+$0.08 $2.75 Increased electric transmission and distribution service infrastructure investments by ATXI and Ameren Illinois partially offset by lower Illinois
Slide 15: Select Pending Regulatory Matters
Select Pending Regulatory Matters Missouri electric service • $206 million annual electric revenue increase request filed July 1 with MoPSC – Includes recovery of, and return on, new infrastructure investments – Removes prospectively the negative earnings effects of lower sales to New Madrid smelter
Slide 16: Select 2017 Earnings Considerations
Select 2017 Earnings Considerations Higher average estimated rate base: ~$2.51 billion compared to estimated ~$2.11 billion in 2016 FERC-Regulated reflecting infrastructure investments made under formula ratemaking Electric Transmission • Expect lower projected weighted average allowed ROE vs. 201
Slide 17: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Successfully executing our strategy • Strong year-to-date 2016 earnings • 2016 diluted EPS guidance range raised to $2.65 to $2.75 Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 20201 • Expect 5% to 8% compound ann
Slide 18: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 19: GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation (In millions, except per share amounts) Nine Months Ended Sept. 30, 2015 2016 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $ 601 $ 2.47 $ 621 $ 2.56 Results from discontinued operations Operating income before income tax (3) (0.01) — — Income tax benefit (49) (0.20) — — Income fr
Slide 20: Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30
Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30 Key Core Earnings Variance Drivers Core Diluted EPS1 Increased electric transmission and distribution infrastructure investments YTD 2015 vs. YTD 2016 by ATXI and Ameren Illinois, including changes in allowed ROEs: +$0.17 Higher Illinois natural g
Slide 21: Significant FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment
Significant FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment Planned $3.0 billion investment – 2016-20201 • $1.0 billion of regional multi-value projects at ATXI Regional • $2.0 billion of local reliability and connecting portions of regional multi- Multi-Value Projects value projects at Ameren Illinois Total
Slide 22: Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing
Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing • $206 million annual electric revenue increase request filed July 1, 2016 with MoPSC, which would result in an average 7.8% increase in base PROCEDURAL SCHEDULE rates KEY DATES: – ROE: 9.9% vs. 9.53% in April 2015 order – Equity ratio: 51.8% (Dec. 31,
Slide 23: Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing, cont’d
Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing, cont’d • Key drivers of requested $206 million annual revenue increase – New electric infrastructure investments: +$74 million • Depreciation: $39 million; return on rate base: $25 million; and property taxes1: $10 million – Reduced customer sales, le
Slide 24: Pending 2016 Illinois Electric Formula Rate Update
Pending 2016 Illinois Electric Formula Rate Update • $14 million net revenue requirement decrease filed in April 2016 with ICC in required annual formula rate update consisting of: RATE UPDATE SCHEDULE KEY DATES: – $96 million increase, including interest, for 2015 revenue requirement reconciliation
Slide 25: FERC MISO Complaint Cases Regarding MISO base ROE
FERC MISO Complaint Cases Regarding MISO base ROE • Cases sought to reduce Ameren Illinois’ and ATXI’s transmission service allowed base ROE – In first case, FERC final order issued Sept. 28, 2016 confirmed ALJ initial recommendation of a 10.32% base ROE • Maximum ROE including incentives not to exc
Slide 26: Select Regulatory Matters
Select Regulatory Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • 2016 electric rate case: Docket No. ER-2016-0179 • Order granting CCN for ATXI’s Mark Twain transmission project: Docket No. EA-2015-0146 • Working case to consider policies to improve electric utility regulation: Docket No. EW-2016-0313
Slide 27: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar NOVEMBER 2016 DECEMBER 2016 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 Q3 Quiet Q3 Period, Earnings cont. Call 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EEI Conf. EEI Conf. 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Mizuho Barclays Conf
Slide 28: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations ALJ – Administrative Law Judge. GAAP – Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. AMI – Automated Meter Infrastructure. ICC – Illinois Commerce Commission. ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois. M – Million. B – Billion. MISO – Midcontinent Independent Sys