Thai Vegetable Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TVO
Thai Vegetable Oil Public — Investor Presentation (March 2022)
56 slides from Thai Vegetable Oil Public's investor presentation, Mar 10, 2022
Slide 1: Business Overview & Market Outlook
THAI VEGETABLE OIL PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED ASEAN Leading Soybean Processing Company Business Overview & Market Outlook Oppotunity Day 10th March 2022
Slide 2: 2021 Performance Overview: Net Profit
ภาพรวมผลประกอบการป 2021 Net Profit (million THB) 3000 2,755 2500 2,068 2000 1,867 1,656 1500 1,327 1,411 1000 882 726 466 500 360 99 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 THB/Share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Earnings per share 3.41 1.64 2.31
Slide 3: Topics
Topics 1 TVO Business overview 2 TVO growth plan 3 Soybean market situation 4 Financial performance 3
Slide 4: Company's Highlights
Company’s Highlights Company’s Highlights Industry / Sector Agro & Food Industry / Food and Beverage Market Cap THB 26,500 million~ USD 800 million (as of March 3, 2022) Closed Price THB 33 per Share (as of March, 2022) Capital 808.61 million shares (paid-up) at par value THB 1.00 per share Sharehol
Slide 5: Company Roadmap
Company Roadmap fn wy SET Tesch nce Tad Establishment of if “Thai Vegetable Oi Company Limited ‘with a production capacity ‘TVO of 400 tons of soybean / day °
Slide 6: Crushing & Refining Process
Crushing & Refining Process CANOLA OIL REFINING SOYBEAN OIL SOYBEANS CANOLA SEEDS CRUDE SOYBEAN OIL DEGUMMING LECITHIN CANOLA MEAL SOYBEAN MEAL EXTRACTION TOASTING CLEANING DEHULLED SOYBEAN MEAL & DEHULLING DEHULLED CRACKING EXTRUSION FULL FAT SOY FULL FAT SOY 6
Slide 7: Crushing Capacity & Crushing Yield
Crushing Capacity & Crushing Yield Main Business Line Production and Distribution of Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal Production Capacity 3 Factories in Thailand, with total production capacity of 6,500 MT/Day Tax Benefit Soybean Import Tax Exemption TVO’s Soybean Crushing Yield (% by weight) Soybean Oi
Slide 8: Sales Revenue
Sales Revenue Sales Revenue (include Packaging Sales) 35,000 31,308 30,000 27,349 28,243 Export 25,762 25,667 26,302 25,077 25,000 23,510 24,568 23,588 24,963 Packaging (Prodigy) Million THB 20,000 Others 15,000 10,000 Soybean Meal 5,000 Soybean Oil 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202
Slide 9: World Soybean Production
World Soybean Production US 120 121 115 120 97 Brazil 123120 126 138139 Argentina 38 55 49 46 47 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 344 361 339 366 363 World’s major producers of soybeans are the US, Brazil, and Argentina There are 2 soybean crops each year, rotating between North America (
Slide 10: World Soybean Export
World Soybean Export US 58 48 62 56 46 Domestic 1% - 5% Brazil 76 75 92 86 90 US 15% - 20%, 50 Days Argentina 10 6 6 2 9 BRZ: 80% - 85%, 35-40 Days 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 153 149 165 171 165 TVO’s soybean supply is sourced from Brazil, as Thai market prefers high protein content
Slide 11: Soybean Oil 2021 (Based on TVO's customers)
Soybean Oil 2021 (Base on TVO’s customers) 33% Industrial Consumers 44% Retail Consumers Non - Food Industry Food Industry Resin (paint) Canned Tuna 23% Lubricant (food grade) Salad Oil Export Feed Ingredient Chilly Paste Domestic Sales Further Flexibag and Bottled Oil Local trade Jap
Slide 12: Soybean Oil Export – International Brand
Soybean Oil Export – International Brand 1st Thailand is becoming a regular supplier of soybean oil to other ASEAN and Asian economies. 12
Slide 13: Thailand's Consumer Soybean Oil Market Share
Thailand’s Consumer Soybean Oil Market Share Vegetable Cooking Oil in Thailand Thailand Consumer Soybean Oil (2021) (2021) No.2 Palm Oil 21% Others 56% 20% Soybean Oil A-ngoon 40% 59% Others 2% Rice Bran Oil 2% 13
Slide 14: Soybean Meal Market
Soybean Meal Market 40% 60% Farms Feed Mill Compound Feed 14
Slide 15: Thailand's Livestock Industry & Feed Demand
Thailand’s Livestock Industry & Feed Demand Thailand’s Major Feed Ingredients Thailand’s Feed Demand for Livestock Soybean Meal supply in Thailand (2021) (Total Feed Consumption 20.34 Million Tons in 2021) (Total soybean meal demand in Thailand ≈ 5 MMT) Duck Soybean 4% Fish Meal Layer Dairy Cattle B
Slide 16: Thailand's Soybean Meal Demand
Thailand’s Soybean Meal Demand +0.8% Hog Fish & Hog Fish & 29% Shrimp 29% Shrimp Layer 5% Others Layer 5% 14% 2020 14% 2021 Others 4.874 million MT 3% -0.4% 4.912 million MT 4% Broiler Fish & 49% Shrimp Hog Broiler 27% 5% Others Layer 48% 16% 2019 3% 4.893 million MT Broiler 49% Fish & Fish & Hog Sh
Slide 17: Topics
Topics 1 TVO Business outlook 2 TVO growth plan 3 Soybean market situation 4 Financial performance 2 17
Slide 18: World & Thailand Soybean Meal Demand Continues to Grow
World & Thailand Soybean Meal Demand Continues to Grow Thailand Soybean Meal Consumption (million Ton) 21 5.0 18 4.0 14 3.0 11 2.0 7 1.0 4 0.0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F Soybean meal accounts for ¼ of total feed
Slide 19: Latest TVO expansion projects (2019-2020)
Latest TVO expansion projects (2019-2020) Projects & Capacity Expansion Soy Crush Unit 500 MT/day Operating Canola Crush Unit 500 MT/day Operating Oil Packing Unit 30,000 carton/day Operating 19
Slide 20: Topics
Topics 1 TVO Business outlook 2 TVO growth plan & projects 3 Soybean market situation 4 Financial performance 2 20
Slide 21: World Soybean Production Cycle
World Soybean Production Cycle Soybean Crop Cycle USA BRZ ARG 21
Slide 22: World Soybean & Soy Meal Trade
World Soybean & Soy Meal Trade World Soybean Expor t World Soybean Impor t OTHER, 2021/22 165 mT 2021/22 162.8 mT 11.0 mT MEXICO, PARAGUAY, 6.0 mT 4.0 mT ARGENTINA, EU, 15.0 4.0 mT JAPAN, 3.0 mT mT US, 56.0 BRAZIL, CHINA THAILAND, mT 90.0 mT , 97.0 4.0 mT mT OTHER, 38.0 mT World Soy Meal Expor t Wor
Slide 23: Market Update
WELCOME MARKET UPDATE 10th Mar 2022
Slide 24: Soybean price has rallied after hitting lowest level in Nov
Market Update Soybean price has rallied after hitting lowest level in Nov as SA production has damaged about 20MT w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m
Slide 25: World soybean supply fell below demand in 2 of last 3 years
Market Update 2 Yrs in the last 3 Yrs the World soybean supply fell below demand due to production loss World Soybean Production VS Usage mMT 380 369 363 Production Usage 354 360 344 338 340 330 331 w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m 320 302 300 276 366 280 358 363 261 350 342 257 337 260 252 321 317 238 240
Slide 26: Meal Margin maintain while Oil Margin stay at very high level
Market Update Meal Margin maintain compared to 2H’21 while Oil Margin stay at very high level Daily SMc1, Sc1, BOc1 3/2/2020 - 4/7/2022 (CHG) Spread, SMc1, Trade Price(Last), Sc1, Trade Price(Last), 1.0, 1.0 3/1/2022, -108.633 Value USD T 0 w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m -100 -108.633 Auto Spread, BOc1, T
Slide 27: Factors affecting CBOT Soybean Price in 2022
Factors affecting CBOT Soybean Price in 2022 Bull Bear Dryness builds in South America High soybean price has caused demand rationing w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m (S.Brazil + Argentina) Analysts have downgraded their forecast Negative crush margin in China for Brazilian soybean 15-20 MT from pre
Slide 28: WASDE Highlight
WASDE Highlight
Slide 29: USDA has lowered forecast for world soybean production
Market Update USDA has lowered forecast for world soybean production by 8.7 MT from Jan due to lower yields in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay 130 126.5 126.5 127.0 127.0 124.5 2011/12 120.0 BZ+AR 120 115.0 111.0 110 107.5 w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m 100 90 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May -20 May-De
Slide 30: La Nina has caused drought in South America
Market Update The impact of La Nina has caused drought in South America. Consequently, the total soybean production in the three countries was estimated to be 185.3 MT down 194.1 million MT from the previous season. w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m
Slide 31: World Soybean Ending Stock at lowest level in 7 years
Market Update World Soybean Ending Stock (Stock to Used) is at lowest level in 7 years Ending stock 2021/22 Feb-22 Trade Est. Range Jan-22 (MT) US 8.8 8.6 5.0-10.2 9.5 w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m World 92.8 91.4 86.0-99.0 95.2 World Soybean Ending Stocks 2021/22 120 34% Ending Stocks (LHS) 32% 110 30%
Slide 32: USDA cut China's Soybean 2021/2022 import
Market Update USDA also cut China’s Soybean 2021/2022 import for second month in a row China Soybean Imports 2021/22 Unit: mMT 103 103 102 101 101 101 101 101 100 w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m 97 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Latest Forecasted for China import 2021
Slide 33: Lower South America production; US might export more soybean
Market Update Lower South America Prod. US might have to export more Soybean w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m US ending stock will be lower than 300 MBu source: CME
Slide 34: China and world booking 2022/23 US soybeans crop faster
China and world have started booking 2022/23 US soybeans crop at faster pace than last year. w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m China+Unknown New crop commitments (mMT) 2021/22 4.16 2022/23 6.01
Slide 35: SAM Crop Outlook
SAM Crop Outlook
Slide 36: Brazilian harvest faster than 5 yrs average
Market Update Brazilian farmers have started harvesting 2021/22 crop faster than 5 yrs average Brazil 52% (+10% w/w) Mato Grosso 90% (+12% w/w) w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m 5yr avg sources: CONAB, IMEA
Slide 37: Brazilian Soybeans Crop Condition
Market Update Brazilian Soybeans Crop Condition Condições hídricas e de temperatura para as lavouras nas principais regiões produtoras (25/02/2022 a 04/03/2022) Last week This week w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m PR PR RS RS source: CONAB
Slide 38: Analysts downgraded forecast for Brazilian soybean output
Market Update Since 1st Feb, analysts have downgraded their forecast for Brazilian soybean output that might fell below 130 MT Source Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 USDA 144.0 144.0 139.0 134.0 w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m AgRural 144.3 144.0 133.4 128.5 122.8 AgResource Brasil 143.7 141.0 131.0 125
Slide 39: Argentina Soybean crop condition
Argentina Soybean crop condition Crop condition; Good+Excellent = 25% (+1% WoW) w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m source: StoneX
Slide 40: Factors that affect CBOT soybean, meal and corn price
Market Update Factors that affect CBOT soybean, soybean meal and corn price in the next 1-2 months Weather in Argentina Weather in Brazil within 1-2 weeks w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m Intended soybean planting area for 2022/23 Weather in US during Jun-Jul Daily =Composite24 13/12/2019 - 18/03/2022 (CHG)
Slide 41: Key factor to monitor: US soybean crop 2022/23
Market Update The key factor to monitor is the US soybean crop for 2022/23 during May-Sep, the Double La Nina year has shown risk of drought. w w w.t vo t h a i. c o m Source: CPC
Slide 42: Trade Est.
Trade Est. 47.8 91.8 89.2 228.8
Slide 43: Soybean Import Price to China (USD/MT)
Soybean Import Price to China (USD/MT) USG-BRZ Brazil USG 750 80 700 60 650 40 w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m 600 20 550 0 500 -20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22
Slide 44: w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m
Market Update w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m
Slide 45: US Soybean crush volume still high
Market Update US Soybean crush volume still high due to good crush margin and strong demand for Soybean meal and Soybean oil พื้นที่เก็บเกี่ยวถั่วเหลืองของสหรัฐฯ ลดลง ขณะที่ผลผลิตตอไรปรับ เพิ่มขึ้น w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m
Slide 46: Veg Oil Market
Veg Oil Market
Slide 47: Vegetable Oil Prices in upward trend since 2020
Market Update Vegetable Oil Prices have been in upward trend since 2020 due to tight stock Daily BO-ARGUPR-P1, PALM-MYSTR-P1, SUNF-EXTANK-P1, RPEO-NLEURO-P1 04/03/2020 - 05/04/2022 (GMT) Line, BO-ARGUPR-P1, Last Quote(Last) 25/02/2022, 1,610.49, N/A, N/A พื้นที่เก็บเกี่ยวถั่วเหลืองของสหรัฐฯ ลดลง ขณะ
Slide 48: Malaysia's palm oil stocks declined in January
Market Update Malaysia's palm oil stocks in January have declined from December and were below the five-year average due to seasonally low-season and labor shortages in plantations. w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m source: MPOB
Slide 49: Thailand Palm Oil Production, Consumption, Stock and Export
Market Update THAILAND MONTHLY PRODUCTION OF PALM OIL 300 THAILAND MONTHLY DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF PALM OIL 400 383 337 350 2019 299 239 Thousand Metric Tons 2020 Thousand Metric Tons 300 274 266 223 263 254 256 2017 5-Yr Avg 207 208 203 250 5-Yr Avg 195 2018 208 189 200 184 174 177 201 198 200 166
Slide 50: War between Russia and Ukraine Market Update
War between Russian and Ukraine Market Update Wheat price Sunflower Oil price Crude Oil price Export - Export - Export - C-Source N-Source Corn price Soymeal price Veg Oil price w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m Soybeans price Soyoil price W HE AT E XP OR TS MAR KE T SH ARE SU N F LOW ER OIL E XP ORTS MARKE
Slide 51: War impacts sunflower oil trade
Market Update The war impacts sunflower oil trade which is the second largest vegetable oil market after palm oil % world production % world trade of major veg oil of major veg oil Others 8% Others Sunflower w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m Sunflower 13% 15% 10% Soybean 14% Soybean 28% Palm Palm 36% Rapesee
Slide 52: Key Profit-Driven Factors to Highlight
Market Update Key Profit-Driven Factors to Highlight Soybean prices surging on supply concerns risk w w w.t vo t h ai. c o m Sustained high price for soybean oil Higher soymeal demand is expected from the broiler industry
Slide 53: Topics
Topics 1 TVO Business outlook 2 TVO growth plan & projects 3 Soybean market situation 4 Financial performance 59
Slide 54: Gross Profit Margin & Net Profit Margin
Gross Profit Margin & Net Profit Margin Gross Profit Margin Net Profit Margin 18% 12% 11.4% 16.0% 16.3% 15% 14.2% 9.8% 9.5% 10% 13.1% 12.4% 12% 11.4% 10.8% 8% 7.4% 10.0% 9.6% 7.0% 6.6% 6.7% 9% 5.9% 6% 5.4% 4.6% 6% 5.5% 4% 3% 2.2% 2% 0% 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q4/20Q1/21Q2/21Q3/21 Million TH
Slide 55: Current Ratio & Capital Structure Ratio
Current Ratio & Capital Structure Ratio 120% Avg. Dividend Payout Ratio 82% 90% 97% 84% 84% 87% 82% 83% 83% 86% 60% 80% 81% 81% 70% 74% 30% 0% 9% 15% 15% Avg. Dividend Yield 6.40% 8.7% 8.3% 6% 7.5% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 6.7% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0% 3% 4.3% 4.6% 5.3% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2
Slide 56: Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited
THAI VEGETABLE OIL PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (March 2022) on 6ix