First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA
First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (December 2025)
37 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Dec 17, 2025
Slide 1: 2026 Market Outlook | Constructive, but cautious
2026 Market Outlook | Constructive, but cautious Brent Ciliano, SVP Blake Taylor, VP Chief Investment Market and Economic Officer Research Analyst Phillip Neuhart, SVP Senior Director of Market and Economic Research Recorded on December 17, 2025
Slide 2: What are we going to cover?
What are we going to cover? 1. 2025 Lookback 2. Economic Outlook 3. Market Outlook 4. Investing for the long term
Slide 3: 2025 Lookback
Making Sense co First CitizensWealth.. 2025 Lookback
Slide 4: Economic data missed the mark slightly in 2025, but stocks outperformed
Economic data missed the mark slightly in 2025, but stocks outperformed Forecast on Jan. 1 Latest Direction Notes/Drivers Tariff tantrum + policy uncertainty and GDP growth 2.10% 1.95% deceleration of consumer spending growth Policy & economic uncertainty + cooling Unemployment rate 4.3% 4.6% labor
Slide 5: Expectations for GDP growth fell sharply this year but then recovered
Expectations for GDP growth fell sharply this year but then recovered 2025 GDP Growth Forecast Median Professional Consensus Percent 1.95 % Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 12/17/2025
Slide 6: Tariffs were much steeper than expected in 2025, but the impact was milder
Tariffs were much steeper than expected in 2025, but the impact was milder Average Tariff Rate on All Imports Percent 11.2% Source: Tax Foundation, First Citizens Bank Data as of December 1, 2025
Slide 7: Stock-market gains have been unrelenting in the second half of 2025
Stock-market gains have been unrelenting in the second half of 2025 S&P 500 Index Total return since 10/12/2022: +100% -5 % Oct 10: -3.0% drawdown Aug 1: -2.4% drawdown - 19% Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 12/15/2025
Slide 8: After a sharp selloff, the S&P 500 stayed near all time highs
After a sharp selloff, the S&P 500 stayed near all time highs all throughout H2 S&P 500: Distance From All-Time High. 1-Month Average -0.6% -1% from all-time highs Source: S&P Global, First Citizens Bank Data as of December 8, 2025
Slide 9: Fixed income yields moved lower but stayed generally close to 4%
Fixed income yields moved lower but stayed generally close to 4% Fixed Income Yields Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 12/8/2025
Slide 10: Economic outlook
Making Sense co First CitizensWealth.. Economic outlook
Slide 11: The economy faces various headwinds and tailwinds heading into 2026
The economy faces various headwinds and tailwinds heading into 2026 Tailwinds Headwinds • GDP at or above 2% (trend) • Lower hiring demand • Real spending / demand • Layoffs have moved higher • Level of employment • Consumer sentiment • Low jobless claims • Fed cutting – why? • Positive wealth effec
Slide 12: Even after adjusting for inflation, households spending growth is firm
Even after adjusting for inflation, households spending growth is firm Consumer Spending Growth % change, y/y Nominal Inflation-adjusted 5.0% 2.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), First Citizens Bank Data through September 2025
Slide 13: Market gains have propelled household net worth to new highs
Market gains have propelled household net worth to new highs Equity, Mutual Fund, and Pension Entitlement Wealth Relative to Annual Consumer Spending Years Latest: 4.2 years Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), First Citizens Bank Data as of December 5, 2025 Note: "Stock
Slide 14: The US labor market is no longer tight
The US labor market is no longer tight Unemployment Rate Number of Job Openings per Unemployed Worker Percent Ratio 11/2025 4.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First Citizens Bank Data as of December 16, 2025 Data thr
Slide 15: The strength of the labor market now varies by income and occupation
The strength of the labor market now varies by income and occupation Real Wage Growth by Income Quartile Change in Job Postings Relative to Feb. 2020 (Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker) - (CPI Inflation) Index Total Job Postings Percent Total Postings, Banking & Finance Total Postings, Software Development T
Slide 16: Markets and the economy are learning to live with 3% inflation
Markets and the economy are learning to live with 3% inflation Consumer Price Index (Core, ex-food and energy) Year/year change 3-month annualized change 2% inflation target September 2025: 3.64% Oct-Nov 2025 ? September 2025: 3.03% Oct-Nov 2025 ? Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), First
Slide 17: Federal Reserve policy may face significant uncertainty in 2026
Federal Reserve policy may face significant uncertainty in 2026 Federal Funds Rate and Market-Implied Path Federal Reserve Policymaker Uncertainty Index Average of Uncertainty Diffusion Indices for GDP Growth, PCE Inflation, and the Unemployment Rate End 2025: 3.64% Source: Federal Reserve, First Ci
Slide 18: Financial conditions are supporting growth
Financial conditions are supporting growth US Financial Conditions Index December 8: 98.5 Source: Goldman Sachs, First Citizens Bank Data as of December 9, 2025
Slide 19: The US federal position is on an unsustainable trajectory
The US federal position is on an unsustainable trajectory US Federal Budget Balance Percent - 2 .0 % - 2 . 1% -3.8% -2.3% Forecast -4.8% -8.5% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), First Citizens Bank Latest data as of J
Slide 20: Market outlook
Making Sense co First CitizensWealth.. Market outlook
Slide 21: Navigating markets in 2026 may be a balancing act
Navigating markets in 2026 may be a balancing act Tailwinds Headwinds • Earnings growth and • Extended valuations Margin expansion • Concentration (earnings, • Balance sheets cap, margins) • Easing monetary policy and • AI spending (quality; real or financial conditions circular?) • AI spending (inv
Slide 22: Analysts expect corporate earnings and margin growth will be robust in 2026
Analysts expect corporate earnings and margin growth will be robust in 2026 Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin ▪ CY 2025 estimated growth is 12.1% 20% 19% 18.7% Q4 2025 estimated growth is 8.1% 18% 17% ▪ CY 2026 estimated growth is 14.5% 16% 15% ▪ Average growth since 1950 is 7.6% 14%
Slide 23: S&P 500 market cap is heavily concentrated in the largest stocks
S&P 500 market cap is heavily concentrated in the largest stocks Market Cap of Top 10 Equities in S&P 500 as a Percent of Total Market Cap Percent 40% January 2024 32% March 2000: 26% December 2019 24% Source: Trivariate Research, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 2025
Slide 24: Exceptional profit margins among the largest stocks may justify high valuation
Exceptional profit margins among the largest stocks may justify high valuation Median Operating Margin Top 10 vs. Remaining S&P 500 Companies Source: Trivariate Research, First Citizens Bank Data as of December 9, 2025
Slide 25: Large technology firms are spending enormous sums on capital expenditures
Large technology firms are spending enormous sums on capital expenditures Hyperscaler Capex Spending 4-quarter rolling sum Source: Bloomberg Data as of 2025 Q3
Slide 26: US stocks have rarely been so expensive
US stocks have rarely been so expensive S&P 500, 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio Source: S&P Global, First Citizens Bank Data as of December 1, 2025
Slide 27: The top 10 firms are driving market valuation to new highs
The top 10 firms are driving market valuation to new highs S&P 500 Market Cap-Weighted Price to Forward Earnings (P/E) Ratio Source: Trivariate Research, First Citizens Bank Data as of November 17, 2025
Slide 28: Expensive equity markets can rally further
Expensive equity markets can rally further S&P 500 Total Return Since Alan Greenspan's 1996 "Irrational Exuberance" Speech Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 12/9/2025
Slide 29: Households have never been so exposed to the stock market
Households have never been so exposed to the stock market Corporate Equities as a Share of Total Household Net Worth Source: Federal Reserve, First Citizens Bank Data as of 2025 Q2
Slide 30: Expensive equity markets can rally further
Expensive equity markets can rally further S&P 500 Total Returns 8,000 91% 23% 7,000 90th Percentile September 2025 6,000 211% 135% 5,000 90th Percentile July 1995 4,000 80th Percentile March 1992 3,000 342% 80th Percentile 2,000 194% October 2022 90th 80th Percentile 1,000 Percentile December Novem
Slide 31: S&P 500 price target
S&P 500 price target Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Next Twelve Months Percent Change Price Level from 12/15/25 Bear 5,200 -23.7% Base 7,200 5.6% Bull 7,800 14.4% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 31
Slide 32: Fixed income yields declined in 2025, driving strong total returns
Fixed income yields declined in 2025, driving strong total returns Fixed Income Indices Yield to Worst Total Return 12/31/2024 Latest Year to date Aggregate Bond 4.9% 4.4% +6.8% Intermediate Government/Credit 4.6% 4.0% +6.5% Municipal Bond 3.7% 3.6% +4.0% Investment Grade Corporate Bond 5.3% 4.9% +7
Slide 33: Investing for the long term
Making Sense co First CitizensWealth.. Investing for the long term
Slide 34: Intra-year selloffs average 15%
Intra-year selloffs average 15% S&P 500 Calendar Year Return vs. Largest Intra-Year Price Decline 40% 38% 33% 32% 30% 31% 29% 29% 29% 30% 26% 26% 25% 23% 22% 21% 20% 16% 16% 18% 17% 15% 14% 11% 12% 10% 10% 8% 5% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% -3% -3% -3% -4% -10% -5% -6% -5% -6% -7% -5% -8% -7% -9% -7% -7% -7% -7%
Slide 35: Market timing is a dangerous game
Market timing is a dangerous game Growth of $10,000, S&P 500 Compounded Total Returns January 1, 1995 - December 31, 2024 $140,000 $131,347 37% less 54% less 73% less 83% less 89% less 92% less $120,000 • Nearly half (48%) of the S&P $100,000 500 Index’s strongest days $83,010 occurred during a bear
Slide 36: In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes
Brent Ciliano, SVP In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes Chief Investment Officer every Monday morning Q&As | Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top questions we’re hearing from clients Phillip Neuhart, SVP Senior Director of Market updates | Monthly interactive discussions
Slide 37: Authors Important Disclosures
Authors Important Disclosures Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any s
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