Will ASX earnings and dividends beat the odds and rise this year?

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The last four weeks have painted a rich tapestry of the Australian stock market. And nowhere is this more apparent than in the disparity between consumer stocks' earnings. For instance, Wesfarmers ASX:WES marginally beat analyst estimates while the exodus of its CEO alongside an earnings miss sent Woolworths ASX:WOW shares south.But for a lot of the market, earnings have held up better than expected. As Steve Johnson, CIO at Forager Funds Management described it, "It hasn't been good, it's been down but it's been better than expected." And there is no question that relatively resilient earnings have allowed the ASX 200 to stay near all-time highs on an index level.So what do all the numbers of the last four weeks really say about the state of corporate Australia - and where are the best of the best investing their money given what has been handed down?To find out, we bring you the Signal or Noise February Reporting Season episode. Joining AMP's Diana Mousina and myself are two veteran stock pickers who also have a strong macro nous:Steve Johnson, CIO at Forager Daniel Moore, Portfolio Manager at IMLThis episode was taped on Wednesday 28 February 2024 and first appeared on Livewire Markets. You can watch the video, listen to the podcast, or read our edited summary.EDITED SUMMARYTopic 1: The disconnect between macro data and earnings expectationsSource: Refinitiv, Wilsons AdvisoryDiana: SIGNAL - Earnings expectations in Australia are lower than they are in the US, but economic growth is also expected to be lower than stateside. The two are moving in line and that makes for an important signal moving forward.Steve: NOISE - Markets are forward-looking beasts. With earnings holding up better than expected (read: good but not great, better than the worst-case scenario), it's very much a sector and stock case-by-case basis. Daniel: SIGNAL - Daniel is more worried about FY25 and FY26, arguing there are some "punchy" numbers which, when combined with expensive valuations, suggest that it's a "recipe for vulnerability".Topic 2: Is this the peak for earnings in the ASX consumer space?Source: StreetAccount, ASX ReleasesSteve: NOISE - He thinks we've seen the peak for earnings expectations for retail and some consumer stocks. Furthermore, he is not convinced that consumer strength will last much longer even though earnings have been far better than expected. Daniel: N...

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