Upstream oil & gas M&A likely to cool in 2026 despite $152B in opportunities

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The global upstream oil and gas merger-and-acquisition (M&A) market is set to cool in 2026, with activity expected to dip below 2025 levels despite nearly $152 billion in available opportunities as of January, according to a Rystad Energy analysis.“Rystad Energy expects North America to remain the clear anchor for upstream M&A activity in 2026, with deal flow increasingly shaped by a new phase of a ‘merger of equals’ consolidation among small- and mid-cap listed US shale producers,” Atul Raina, vice president, oil and gas M&A, said in the analysis. This is further supported by ample private E&P capital yet to be deployed, ongoing consolidation in Canada’s Montney shale, and rising interest in gas and LNG-linked assets—particularly from Asian buyers seeking long-term security of supply.The international M&A landscape, in stark contrast, continues to be inconsistent. Although many potential deals exist, overall momentum is constrained because activity is largely focused on a small number of high-value and frequently intricate transactions.National oil companies (NOCs) from the Middle East, Asia, and South America are expected to be more active players in the market. This increased participation is driven by their ongoing desire for greater scale and international exposure, especially as many International Oil Companies (IOCs) maintain a selective approach, according to Raina.2025 market review and key dealsIn 2025, global upstream Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity decreased by 17% year-on-year (YoY), totaling approximately $170 billion. The number of deals also saw a decline of 12%, reaching 466.Last year, several major trends defined the energy sector, including significant consolidation among North American shale producers, substantial investments in LNG projects across the US and Argentina, and major companies divesting assets in Asia and the UK to establish new regional joint ventures.Key deals reflecting these themes include the SM Energy/Civitas merger, Cenovus Energy’s acquisition of MEG Energy, a Blackstone-led consortium’s purchase of a 49.9% stake in Port Arthur LNG phase 2 from Sempra Infrastructure Partners (SIP), the Eni/Petronas asset merger in Indonesia and Malaysia, and TotalEnergies merging its UK operations with NeoNext Energy to create NeoNext+.Early in the year, significant updates in the energy sector include potential merger talks ...

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