Research helps real estate professionals anticipate market shifts
CHICAGO, June 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Real estate professionals face an increasingly challenging environment, hindered by prolonged housing inventory stagnation and persistent economic uncertainty. As speculation grows around potential mortgage rate cuts or increases, a new report from TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) provides actionable insights to help agents plan for either scenario.
The report predicts changes in the number of mortgage-ready renters across metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), based on a 25 basis-point increase or decrease from a 6.5% mortgage interest rate. It maps the impact across four categories:
Rate-Cut Winners — MSAs expected to see the most growth from a rate decrease and the smallest decline from a rate increase (includes Muncie, Indiana and Decatur, Illinois)
Rate Hike Soft Markets — MSAs projected to experience the most losses from a rate increase and the least growth from a rate decrease (includes Springfield, Ohio and Warner-Robins, Georgia)
Rate Sensitive Markets — MSAs with above average growth for rate decreases and above average loss for rate increases (includes Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa and Battle Creek, Michigan)
Rate Resilient Markets — MSAs with below average growth for a rate decrease and below average loss for a rate increase (includes San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, California and Honolulu, Hawaii)
Major cities, like New York, Los Angeles and Chicago fit squarely into the Rate Resilient Markets category. Large urban areas have greater variability of incomes and housing prices that make them less sensitive to interest rate changes for home buying activity.
The research defines mortgage-ready renters as those that meet key criteria to qualify for a mortgage on a $300,000 home. It estimates the size of this potential first-time homebuyer segment across MSAs nationwide. The full findings are available in the TransUnion Real Estate Perspectives Report.
"Real estate professionals work extraordinarily hard to serve their clients and build business," said Melanie Zimmerman, President of TransUnion Risk and Alternative Data Solutions, Inc.1 "TransUnion provides the tools and intelligence to help them work smarter and get ahead of the market, rather than reacting to it."
Preparing to meet demand
Even if mortgage rates decrease, tight housing inventory will continue to constrain the market, making it difficult for buyers to secure homes. The report highlights the need for real estate professionals to strengthen supply before demand surges.