PARIS, July 16, 2026--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies' (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) second quarter 2026 aggregates are shown below:
Main indicators | ||||||
2Q26 | 1Q26 | 4Q25 | 3Q25 | 2Q25 | ||
€/$ | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.13 | |
Brent | ($/b) | 103.8 | 81.1 | 63.7 | 69.1 | 67.9 |
TTF | ($/Mbtu) | 15.6 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 11.9 |
Average liquids price * (1) | ($/b) | 91.6 | 73.7 | 61.4 | 66.5 | 65.6 |
Average gas price * (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 5.55 | 5.59 | 5.11 | 5.50 | 5.63 |
Average LNG price ** (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 10.20 | 8.48 | 8.48 | 8.91 | 9.10 |
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** | ($/b) | 13.5 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates. | ||||||
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates. | ||||||
*** This market indicator for European refining, calculated based on public market prices ($/b), uses a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of TotalEnergies. | ||||||
(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively. |
Main elements impacting the quarter aggregates
Hydrocarbon production for the second quarter 2026 is expected to be at nearly 2.4 Mboe/d.
This production should leverage a strong organic growth in line with the quarterly guidance of 4%.
The impact of the Middle East conflict for the second quarter is around 210 kboe/d, which is below the guidance communicated last quarter of 360 kboe/d. This is notably driven by the ramp-up of the Company's production in offshore United Arab Emirates over the course of the quarter and the restart of production in the other countries in the region during June. However, a significant portion of this production could not be lifted during the quarter and is recognized in Exploration & Production results based on the crude price from end-June (less than $70/b).
Exploration & Production cash flow is expected to reflect this level of production while capturing the increase of the average liquids prices (+$17.9/b over the quarter, vs $22.7/b for Brent, due to a lifting schedule weighted towards the end of the quarter, in a softer crude market), leading to an increase of around $1 billion vs first quarter. Exploration & Production results are expected to increase but will be affected by the accounting effects related to production that was not lifted.
Integrated LNG cash flow and results are expected to decrease significantly, affected by an underperformance in gas trading activities amid a broadly flat to declining European market, after outperforming in the first quarter.
Integrated Power cash flow is expected to increase strongly supported by the closing of the transaction with EPH on April 29.
Downstream results and cash flow are expected to increase sharply compared to the first quarter of 2026, supported by higher refining and petrochemical margins, as well as oil trading results, which are expected to remain at the same strong level as in the first quarter. Marketing & Services should benefit from the same positive seasonal effect as observed in the second quarter of 2025.
A decrease in working capital between $1 and 1.5 billion is anticipated over the quarter, mainly related to the impact of lower hydrocarbon prices at the end of the quarter on inventories.
As quarterly net investments are expected to be in line with the annual guidance of $15 billion, the gearing ratio is expected to improve by 2 points at the end of the second quarter of 2026.