Tin market still beholden to the fortunes of Myanmar mine: Andy Home

About this update from Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. Class A

By Andy HomeTin continues to outperform the rest of the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals pack as the market awaits the return of the Man Maw mine in Myanmar. It's been two years since the mine, one of the world's largest, was closed for a resource audit. It's been six months since the authorities in the semi-autonomous Wa State invited applications for new mining permits. Yet to date there is no evidence of any ramp-up in activity. Indeed, the flow of tin concentrates from Myanmar to neighbouring China has almost dried up completely. The lingering uncertainty over Man Maw has rekindled fund buying interest and lifted the LME three-month tin price MYX:FTIN1! from below $30,000 per metric ton in April to more than $35,000 at the end of August. Speculators are once again betting on the obscurest part of the tin supply picture.WAITING FOR MAN MAWThe continued absence of Man Maw supply is manifest in China's reduced imports of tin concentrates from Myanmar. The flow of raw material to Chinese smelters dropped to just 933 tons in July, which suggests that not only has activity at Man Maw not resumed, but that the country's other smaller mines are experiencing some sort of disruption, possibly due to the earthquake which rocked the country in March. Year-to-date imports from Myanmar have fallen by 77% year-on-year to just 14,200 tons. By way of comparison, monthly imports averaged 15,000 tons in both 2022 and 2023, when Man Maw was still pumping out tin. The latest concrete news from the Wa State came in July, when the International Tin Association reported that the first new permits had been granted for mining to resume at Man Maw. The Association warned that it would take time for actual tin production to resume and export flows to recover. So it has proved. NO SCARCITYChina's tin smelters have had some success in compensating for the loss of what was their main supply source until Man Maw was suspended in August 2023. The Democratic Republic of Congo has emerged as the largest single supplier of tin concentrates this year, while imports from both Australia and Nigeria have also risen sharply. But total concentrate imports of 73,000 tons through July are still down by 32% year-on-year. Chinese smelter margins have been squeezed and capacity utilisation was below 70% in many parts of the country last month, according to local data supplier Shanghai Metal...

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