Market Overview
Videoconference
May, 15th 2026
9 a.m. - Bíasília
8 a.m. - New Yoík 1 p.m. - LoÉdoÉ
Wite simultaÉeous tíaÉslatioÉ iÉto EÉglise.
INSCREVA-SE
gs Release | 1Q26
1Q26
Market OverviewVideocoÉfeíeÉce
May, 15th10 a.m. - Bíasilia 09 a.m. - New Yoík 01 p.m. - LoÉdoÉ
1
Earnings Release | 1Q26
Market Overview
Figure 1 - Price Variations, Selected Commodities, December 2020 to March 2026
Source: Bloomberg.
Cotton
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure 2 - Cotton Prices in International Markets vs. Brazil
Early 2026 may be marked by a meaningful recovery in cotton prices in the international market, following a prolonged period of weak pricing.
Key drivers behind this trend are the emergence and intensification of the United States-Iran conflict during the year, with the resulting increase in crude oil prices and implications for the development of the recently planted
U.S. cotton crop.
Figure 3 - Polyester Prices
Source: Bloomberg
This scenario directly affected polyester fiber prices in the international market and, given its competition with cotton and the textile industry's flexibility to switch between the two raw materials, helped support higher prices for cotton.
Figure 4 - Cotton - World Supply-Demand Balance
Source: USDA.
Additionally, the start of the U.S. crop season is taking place amid drier-than-average weather conditions compared with recent years, while USDA data points to an expected acreage expansion of nearly 4.0%.
From a supply-demand perspective, global cotton consumption for the 2026/27 crop year is estimated at
121.7 million bales, against projected production of 116 million bales, resulting in a global deficit of around 5.7 million bales.
In this context, the outlook is for Brazil to continue gaining share in the international market, consolidating its position as one of the leading global cotton players. The start of the 2025/26 crop year already reflects this trend, with Brazilian cotton exports posting volumes above the historical average for the period under review.
Figure 5 - Cotton - Brazilian Exports by Crop Year
Source: Comex Stat
Soybean
Soybean spot prices quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the prices paid for the grain based on the Paranaguá/CEPEA reference had opposite movements in the first quarter of 2026.
Figure 6 - Soybean Prices in International Markets vs. Brazil
Source: Bloomberg.
The rebound observed in the global market, as reflected by the CBOT benchmark, is closely tied to the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the resulting increase in prices across the oil and energy markets.
Against a backdrop of growing concern over the decarbonization of the global energy mix, combined with efforts to raise the share of renewable fuels in transportation, the correlation between soybean oil traded on the CBOT and crude oil prices has become more pronounced.
As a result, soybean oil prices on the CBOT have risen materially, providing important support to soybean prices.
On a global basis, the USDA projects a supply-demand balance for 2026/27 crop year with production exceeding consumption by approximately 900 thousand metric tons- the smallest surplus recorded in last five years. Regarding the U.S. production, the first indications of planted area point to a slight 4.0% increase in soybean acreage, according to USDA data.
Figure 7 - Soybean - World Supply and Demand
Source: USDA.
Regarding demand for the Brazilian soybean, the country's balance of trade registered exports in line with volumes in the comparable period from January to March, attesting to the strong global demand and the competitiveness of Brazilian soybean in the international market.
Figure 8 - Soybeans - Brazilian Export
Source: Comex Stat.
Figure 9 - Soybeans - Exports from January to March
Source: Comexstat.
It is important to monitor any tariff changes imposed by the U.S. on trade partners, similar to the scenario that occurred with China during Donald Trump's first presidential term, where Brazilian soybean exports to the Asian country were benefited compared to U.S. soybean exports.
Over the past few years, particularly since 2018, Brazil has emerged as a consistent supplier to the Asian country.
Corn
Corn prices in the CBOT spot contract and in the Brazilian domestic market both showed an upward trend in quotations throughout 2026.
Figure 10 - Corn Prices in International Markets vs. Brazil
Source: Bloomberg
Corn prices in Brazil have encountered key stable levels supported by rising domestic demand, thanks to the growth of the corn ethanol industry. As a result, Brazilian corn exports are contending with a domestic market that currently offers more attractive price conditions.
Figure 11 - Corn for Ethanol
Million Tonnes
26
21
17
10
13
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026*
Source: ANP
The first indications of planted area in the U.S. on 2026/27 crop year point to a slight 4.0% decrease in corn acreage. Regarding the global market, corn is once again facing a situation
where demand exceeds supply, with a negative balance of 11 million tonnes according to USDA data.
Figure 12 - Corn - World Supply-Demand Balance
Source: USDA.
In addition to the current scenario of demand outpacing supply, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe remains a key factor, especially considering that Ukraine is one of the world's leading corn exporters.
Such events are of utmost importance to adjust global corn exports, since Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine are, alongside the U.S., among the world's largest corn suppliers.
Figure 13 - Corn Global Exports in 2026/27, Main Global Exporters
Source: USDA
Investor Relations Department
Contact | íi@slcagíicola.com.bí
Ivo Marcon Brum
Ceief FiÉaÉcial aÉd IÉ:estoí PelatioÉs Officeí
André Vasconcellos
FiÉaÉcial PlaÉÉiÉg aÉd IÉ:estoí PelatioÉs MaÉageí
Alisandra Reis
IÉ:estoí PelatioÉs CooídiÉatoí
Daniel Batista
IÉ:estoí PelatioÉs AÉalQst
Laiza Rocha
IÉ:estoí PelatioÉs Specialist
Earnnings Release | 1Q26
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