Analysts Meeting
3Q24 Performance Result
15 November 2024
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Highlights
3Q24 highlights - Upbeat production, strong results
B U S I N E S S P E R F O R M A N C E
Production | Sales | ASP | |
5.8 Mt | 6.3 Mt | $97/ton | |
33% QoQ / 9% YoY | 8% QoQ / 18% YoY | 3% QoQ / -2% YoY |
Revenue | EBITDA | Net Profit |
$608 Mn | $161 Mn | $144 Mn |
8% QoQ / 15% YoY | 42% QoQ / 22% YoY | 114% QoQ / 46% YoY |
G O O D A N D R E S P O N S I B L E | G R E E N E R , S M A R T E R T R A N S F O R M A T I O N |
Watershed rehabilitation programs through subsidiaries | Solar-based renewable capacity strong growth |
ITM's newly operated mines, GPK and TIS, launched a kick-off ceremony for a 1,300 Ha watershed rehabilitation in IKN. Meanwhile, BEK's watershed rehabilitation planting program in Menoreh Hill, supported by ~1,200 farmers covering 250 Ha, is nearing the completion.
IBP, an ITM subsidiary, successfully added 14.0 MWp to its renewable contracted capacity during 3Q24, resulting in a total solar-based renewable capacity of
46.7 MWp as of September 2024, 4 times YoY growth compared to September 2023 of 11.6 MWp.
5
Three new mines to strengthen our core business
NPR*
5-6Mt
0.5-1Mt
Short-term Long-term
CENTRAL
KALIMANTAN
NORTH | EAST | |||||
KALIMANTAN | ||||||
KALIMANTAN | ||||||
GPK | ||||||
5500 kcal/kg | 4-5Mt | |||||
3900 kcal/kg | 2-3Mt | |||||
TCM | |
BEK | 6400 kcal/kg |
TIS
Melak cluster | 0.5-1Mt | ||
ITM mine subsidiaries that are located in close proximity, including TCM, BEK, TIS, GPK, and NPR
SOUTH
KALIMANTAN
O P E R A T I N G N E W M I N E S
Ramping up annual production
- Based on the life of mine plan, GPK and NPR could contribute up to 5 and 6 Mt production volume respectively.
- NPR is still in development and is expected to commence its production by 2025.
- Port capacity improvement to support the increasing production and pursue future opportunities.
E n r i c h I T M | F u l f i l l d i f f e r e n t |
c o a l p r o f i l e | s p e c i f i c a t i o n |
Besides adding the production and | With more diversified product, ITM |
sales volume, the production from three | would be able to capture wide range |
new mines will enrich our coal profile. | of quality required by its customer. |
O p t i m i z i n g | O p e r a t i o n |
r e v e n u e | s y n e r g y |
Reach more consumers by | Operational synergy in the Melak |
broadening product quality and | cluster by utilizing existing shared |
potentially increase ASP. | facilities. |
*Still in development
6
Reinforcing resilience to withstand the challenges
POLITICAL AND | ENERGY |
REGULATION | |
TRANSITION | |
UNCERTAINTY | |
Revenue | |||
optimization and | |||
COMMODITY | cost management | Sustainability and | MACROECONOMIC, |
PRICE | decarbonization | TRADE, AND | |
VOLATILITY | GEOPOLITICAL CONCERN |
Contractor
business
Robust
operations
Coal | Port and |
trading | logistics |
ENERGY
SERVICES
*Icons in circles represent operating businesses
Coal
mining Strategic minerals
MINING
LE | ||||||||||||
B | R | A | N | |||||||||
A | ||||||||||||
N | ||||||||||||
E | G | F | D | |||||||||
N | ||||||||||||
I | U | |||||||||||
T | N | C | ||||||||||
R | ||||||||||||
O | ||||||||||||
T | ||||||||||||
P | I | |||||||||||
O | ||||||||||||
U | P | |||||||||||
S | N | |||||||||||
S | ||||||||||||
Solar based renewable
Digitalization
and data-
Hydro-based driven
NBS renewable organization
RENEWABLES
AND OTHERS
7
Coal Market Trends
Global thermal coal market
COAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY CHANGE - 2024e VS 2023
Unit: Mt | SUPPLY | DEMAND | ||||
P ac i fi c | ||||||
+51 | +58 | |||||
Atlantic | Russia | |||||
-19 | -30 | Europe | +45 | -20 | Other N. Asia | |
+1 | ||||||
US | -26 | -6 | ||||
China | ||||||
+5 | +51 | +11 | ||||
+4 | South Asia |
Others
Colombia
Indonesia
South Africa | +4 | ||||
-6 | Australia | ||||
Note: JKT = Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
TRENDS
DEMAND
HCV thermal coal prices are expected to remain high through the end of the year, supported by geopolitical and seasonal weather risks. The lower-CV market will be boosted by strong China demand.
- China: Power demand in Q4 will be supported by economic stimulus, declining hydropower generation, and winter demand. Favorable arbitrage between imported and domestic coal continues to drive imports.
- India: Thermal coal imports are expected to remain steady through year- end, driven by strong economic activity and a government directive for all import coal-based power plants to operate at full capacity.
- JKT: High nuclear output may reduce coal demand over the winter, and South Korea and Taiwan plan to restrict coal burning to improve air quality.
- Europe: Coal-fired capacity in Europe is expected to be 30% lower YoY due to coal plant retirements.
SUPPLY
Global thermal coal exports are performing well in most regions, except Russia. La Niña weather could disrupt supply for the rest of the year.
- Indonesia: Strong production growth has led to oversupply, though high demand from China is helping to stabilize prices.
- Australia: Exports remain steady, supported by increased purchases from China.
- Others: Russia's supply is contracting further due to rail capacity constraints, sanctions and rising costs, limiting Russia's ability to meet higher winter demand in the northern hemisphere. South Africa's exports are constrained by sluggish demand and logistical challenges. Colombian supply is optimization-driven, with more coal shifting from Asia back to Atlantic markets.
9
ITM ASP vs thermal coal benchmark prices
ITM ASP VS BENCHMARK PRICES | COMMENTS |
Unit: $/t | ▪ | The seaborne premium thermal coal market remained stable in | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3Q24, with GCNewc prices fluctuating between $132-150 per ton. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
460 | Meanwhile, the market for lower-quality thermal coal showed | |||||||||||||||||||||||
slight weakening from the previous quarter due to increased | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
420 | supply from Indonesia, with ICI2 prices ranging from $92-94 per | |||||||||||||||||||||||
380 | ton, ICI3 from $71-73 per ton, and ICI4 holding between $50-53 per | |||||||||||||||||||||||
ton. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
340 | ▪ | Throughout the quarter, we have been strengthening 3rd party | ||||||||||||||||||||||
300 | coal blending activity for improving the quality of saleable coal, | |||||||||||||||||||||||
effectively optimizing the throughput and ASP. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
260 | ▪ | We anticipate that the global seaborne thermal market will | ||||||||||||||||||||||
220 | continue to remain stable through 2025, with overall supply and | |||||||||||||||||||||||
180 | demand dynamics expected to be well balanced. The production | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Monthly NEX | increase from Indonesia will be mostly absorbed by strong | |||||||||||||||||||||||
demand from China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
140 | $147.1/t | |||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | Quarterly ITM ASP ▪ | Key price metrics: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
$96.9/t | ▪ ITM ASP 3Q24a: $96.9/t (3% QoQ) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | ICI 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
$73.2/t | ▪ NEX (8 Nov 2024)b: $143.3/t | |||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Apr-19 | Oct-19 | Apr-20 | Oct-20 | Apr-21 | Oct-21 | Apr-22 | Oct-22 | Apr-23 | Oct-23 | Jan-24 | Apr-24 | Oct-24 | ▪ ICI 3 (8 Nov 2024)c: $73.3/t | ||||||||||
Jan-19 | Jul-19 | Jan-20 | Jul-20 | Jan-21 | Jul-21 | Jan-22 | Jul-22 | Jan-23 | Jul-23 | Jul-24 |
Notes: | ||
a) | Includes post shipment price adjustments as well as traded coal | |
b) | The Newcastle Export Index (NEX) | 10 |
c) | The Indonesia Coal Price Index (ICI) |