"Strong core, ambitious transition."
December 2025
Petrol Group's 2030 Strategy
We are entering the next strategic period with a clear ambition focused on geographic and product expansion.
Vision
Mission
Key strategic goals
Values
Ambition
Key strategy components of the Petrol Group
Where to play | Fuels and petroleum products | Merchandise and services | Natural gas New horizons | Electricity | Energy solutions and systems |
Customer experience and brand image
Organisational excellence and employer branding
Operational excellence and cost efficiency
How to win & deliver results
2
Petrol Group's historyPetrol has been supplying its customers with energy for life for more than 80 years. In this time, we have established ourselves as one of the leading energy companies in Slovenia and the SEE region.
Entered the world of
electricity.
Energy transition
natural gas, 1975.
Gas station, 1947...
Petrol - powering your life
for more than 80 years.
Adjusting retail to customer needs.
...with supreme logistics.
First warehouse, 1945.
Green transition and renewable sources, today.
Petrol Group is the leading energy company in SEEWe operate a retail network across five countries in the region and maintain a diversified energy supply and renewable energy production portfolio.
317
527
SLO
Petrol's presence with
the retail network
Petrol's presence without
the retail network
Petrol Group (today) Service stations (SS) E-charging sites Installed RES
Gas supply1 Electricity supply1
597
687
~96 MW
9.2 TWh
3.4 TWh
CRO
202
150
BiH
15
1
42
MNE
SRB
21
9
1. Supply to end customers. Estimate for 2025.
Risk management and stakeholder satisfactionIn today's volatile market environment, risk management and commitment to stakeholder satisfaction
remain our key strategic advantages.
Financial rating
ESG rating
IT security
rating
Employer
rating
Product rating
Rating agency
Rating/result
The most reputable employer in the industry1 and among the Top 10 most reputable employers in Slovenia .
For Q Max, Petrol GO, Coffee To Go, and Fresh in 2025.
1. Energy, Utilities, Water and Gas Supply in Slovenia.
Key external factors (1/2)Due to the increasing external pressure on the core activity, maintaining cash flows and accelerating selective diversification will be crucial to secure long-term growth through 2030.
Due to the EU Green Deal and the increasing number of legal regulations, companies are facing rising compliance costs and an accelerated energy transition.
Environmental compliance
Market players are expanding into renewables, mobility and other alternatives (e.g., circular economy, chemicals), which requires high CAPEX; long payback.
Portfolio diversification
Tight government regulation of fuel margins in Slovenia limits profitability. Additionally, increasing share of duties is eroding market competitiveness in comparison to other neighbouring markets.
Margin regulation on core markets
Electrification
& EV adoption
Beyond 2030
Greater impact requiring Petrol to diversify from fossil fuels.
Diversified portfolio becomes significant profit pool.
Changes in customer behaviour resulting in decreasing fuel demand.
Margins expected to gradually converge to EU average.
By 2030
Minimal impact on fuel demand; EV uptake speed is slower.
New revenue streams, but limited returns in short-term.
Pressure on profitability due to increasing and new compliance costs.
Sustained pressure on retail margins, especially in Slovenia.
Accelerated EV penetration and electrification of transport is reducing demand for diesel and petrol, eroding core fuel retail volumes.
Key trends Description Challenges and opportunities
Key external factors (2/2)We will stay competitive by achieving economies of scale, monetizing stable demand, and entering into long-term strategic partnerships.
Following the energy crisis peaks in 2021-23, volatility is gradually declining but remains above historical levels. The EE market is facing a growth phase; NG forecasts depend on the pace of the energy transition.
Energy market, prices and risks
Price stabilisation, but at a higher level. EE growth and NG stability.
By 2030
Opportunity for market consolidation and for securing a leading market position.
Stable fuel demand;
limited demand for
"green"
products/services.
Lower purchasing power in the short to mid-term; nevertheless, recovery is underway in key markets.
Market consolidation in the Adriatic region is driven by economies of scale and rising compliance costs, new challengers (global oil and gas players, energy and tech firms), and digital/AI-driven operating models.
Competitive
pressure
Consumer sentiment is strengthening. Sustainability support is stagnating - price and convenience outweigh ecological considerations in several segments.
Customer preferences & behaviour
The region is recovering from the inflationary shock, but the rebound in real income is uneven across countries. SEE region continues to converge toward the EU.
Macroeconomic outlook and purchasing power
Beyond 2030
Key trends Description Challenges and opportunities
Cost efficiency and operational excellence are essential to compete with global players. | ||
Stabilized inflation and wages stabilise demand; EU reforms shape the pace of growth. | ||
Loyalty shifts to value-for-money low-carbon offers rather than "green at any price.". | ||
More in-house electricity production and lower dependence on gas suppliers; EE growth, but NG decline. |
Our renewed vision, mission, and values will guide us in achieving our 2030 ambitions while laying the foundation for a culture that supports growth and development plans.
Vision Mission Values
"Together we grow faster than our competition. We are the largest energy company in the region and provide energy, which is the source of life."
"We connect energy, people, and technology into smart solutions that power communities, enable mobility, and build trust for a better life."
Accountability
Innovation
Trust
Cooperation
Excellence
Agility
Goal
By 2030, we will expand our core activity and increase energy production and supply in order to secure diversified and stable cash flows.
Core business expansion
Loyal members increase
Energy production growth
Electricity supply growth
Natural gas supply growth
Expand and modernise the retail network and offering, and ensure a resilient supply chain.
Develop an integrirated loyalty ecosystem that rewards cross-selling and digitalises offering of energy, merchandise, and services.
Develop a scalable RES portfolio to lock in stable long-term cash flows.
Build a profitable electricity retail book for households, SMEs and industrial customers via bundled solutions1 and efficient supply.
Maintain a secure and flexible gas supply (including liquefied NG options) with strong risk management.
KPI
Description
4.4 m tonnesfuel volumes sold with organic growth in 2030
~2 mloyalty program members in 2030
~1 GWportfolio capacities in 2030
~5.5 TWhEE supply in 2030
~13.5 TWhNG supply in 2030
1. E.g. e-charging stations, heat pumps, rooftop solar power plants.
Petrol Group's growth ambition: 500+ EBITDAThe strategy foresees 9% CAGR EBITDA in 2025-30, exceeding growth of the past five years; it combines strong organic growth in all key pillars and introduces a new pillar - circular economy.
Petrol Group's EBITDA growth and target structure through 2030 (mEUR)
~+8%
500
+9.0%
CAGR
325
29%
27%
Historic growth 2021-25 CAGR.
23%
Other
Circular economy
Energy and solutions
Merchandise
and services
Fuels and petroleum products
Expected development after 2030
46%
29%
41%
2025
2030
Legend:
…
High growth of share in EBITDA
High drop of share in EBITDA
Key sustainability goals and commitments by 2030Petrol is accelerating the implementation of its sustainability commitments by setting ambitious environmental goals.
-25%
reduced scope 1 and 2 emissions compared to 20241,2.
~35 GWh
green energy for charging
by 2030.
~500 MW
installed RES capacities
by 2030.
S
Social
Responsible partnership with employees and other key stakeholders.
Reducing emissions; strategic investments in the green transition, and responsible use of sources.
Targets Description Overarching environmental KPI
E
Environmental
G
Governance
Ensuring responsible, ethical, and compliant operations across the organisation and value chain.
1. As defined in the GHG Protocol Corporate Standard. 2. Petrol Group - limited consolidation (Petrol d.d., Petrol d.o.o., Geoplin d.o.o., E3 d.o.o.).
Key financial goals by 2030Goal
Disciplined, high-return investing will scale EBITDA and profit, enabling a higher dividend and transition within our balance-sheet limits.
Profitable scale-up… | ...with progressive payout... | ...requiring bullish CAPEX... | ...and disciplined investments… | …to ensure powerful earnings... | ...and necessary returns. |
Increase EBITDA by scaling multi-energy and profitable retail, creating a more resilient, less volatile earnings mix. | Increase the share of profit for dividend payout. | Deploy a sizable, Capex envelope into diversification and footprint growth to build future cash engines. | Invest in projects that pass a clear scorecard, while keeping leverage within limits. | Organic growth, cost discipline and portfolio expansion (diversification). | Focus the portfolio on high-return projects. |
KPI
Description
500+ mEUR
Annual EBITDA in 2030
60%
Share of the Petrol Group's profit for dividend
~150 mEUR
Average annual CAPEX through 2030
<1.0x
Target net debt/EBITDA
300 mEUR
Net profit in 2030
>10% ROACE
Targeted return on projects
Key financial indicatorsOver the next five years, gross profit will grow at 9.9% CAGR. Through cost discipline, growth will also be recorded in EBITDA (9.0% CAGR) and net profit (11.1% CAGR).
Gross profit1 (mEUR)
OPEX2 (mEUR)
EBITDA (mEUR)
Net profit (mEUR)
1,195
+9.9%
CAGR
746
+9.8%
CAGR
670
420
+9.0%
CAGR
500
325
+11.1%
CAGR
301
178
2025 2030
2025 2030
2025 2030
2025 2030
1. 2025 incl. closed and open derivatives. 2. Includes costs of materials, costs of services, and labour costs; excludes other costs and amortisation/depreciation
Structure of investmentsBy investing in our core activity and pursuing diversification, we ensure a strong core while driving an ambitious transition.
Investments in 2026-30, by business pillars (%) Investments in 2026-30, by purpose (%)
Circular economy
Energy and solutions
41%
Digitalisation 7%
5%
Fuels and petroleum products
Merchandise and services
47%
Diversification
25%
Maintaining current situation
40%
> 40% in transition in 2025-40
~ 35% in transition in 2021-25
35%
Core activity growth
Product portfolio and market presence expansionTo achieve results, we will grow in existing and new regional markets, especially through the expansion of the retail network and entry to NG and EE supply markets.
Retail network
Retail network
Circular economy
ILLUSTRATIVE & NON-
EXHAUSTIVE
Circular
economy
NG and EE supply
Colour legend for product expansion
Growth focus
Opportunistic growth
Retail network
growth
EE B2C supply
Colour legend for countries
Petrol's presence with retail
network
Petrol's presence without
retail network
EE supply
Retail network in other SEE markets
EE
and NG supply
Retail network
Tactical goals by 2030The strategic goals are complemented by operational and tactical goals focused on costs, employee productivity, human resources, brand, and customer experience.
Strategic goals
Tactical goals | ||||||
Cost management | Productivity increase | Human resource management | Brand development and CX | |||
Enhance cost discipline and operational efficiency to achieve the target CIR and long-term financial stability.
Increase productivity and value added per employee.
Become one of the most desired and reputable employers with a culture and employee structure necessary to achieve strategic goals.
Defend brand power and preference in Slovenia, strengthen it in other markets, and ensure the best customer experience.
KPI
Description
~70%Cost-to-income ratio (CIR) by 2030
>100 kEURAdded value per employee in 2030
Top 10Employer in relevant markets by 2030
30+Touchpoints for measuring customer experience in relevant markets by 2030
Key strategic initiativesWe will achieve the set goals through operational and organisational excellence, while ensuring the best customer experience and further building on brand power and image.
Supply chain optimisation
Retail network automation
Operational excellence and cost efficiency
Organisational excellence and employer branding
AI implementation
IT development
Workplace climate, satisfaction, and engagement improvement
Employer branding improvement
Customer experience and brand image
Increasing the number and value of loyal customers
Employee development
Ensuring an optimal human resource structure Brand development
Costs
AV per emloyee
Personnel
Brand & CX
Improving the customer experience
Implementing and further developing the mobile app
Digitalisation in marketing, digital sales, and CC
Remark
Any further use of data, estimates, or content from the document "Petrol Group's 2030 Strategy" - including summarizing, quoting, interpreting, or
incorporating into other analyses - requires prior written consent from Petrol d.d., Ljubljana, to ensure accurate and comprehensive interpretation.
This document contains an estimate of the current state, including an evaluation of key business indicators for 2025, as well as Projections for 2026-2030 and beyond (forward-looking statements) related to the Petrol Group's strategy, plans, goals, and expectations.
In developing the strategic plan, we relied on the rolling forecast for 2025, which changed significantly during the year due to unforeseen circumstances. In cases of material deviations between the rolling forecast and the latest estimate for 2025, we adjusted the baseline in this document to align with the latest available estimate. The assumptions for 2025 in this document are estimates and may differ from actual results, as the financial year was not yet closed at the time of content preparation.
Projections include risks and uncertainties which is why actual results may differ materially from those stated due to movements in energy prices, market conditions, changes in demand, macroeconomic factors, technology development, regulatory changes, competitive environment, and other factors disclosed in our public reports.
Certain data are based on estimates, assumptions, and third-party information. Despite due diligence, we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy. These risk factors explicitly apply to all projections included in this content and must be considered by the reader. Each projection is valid only as of the date
of this content. The Petrol Group does not undertake to publicly update or revise any projection due to new information, future events, or other circumstances,
except as required by regulations. Given these risks, actual results may differ materially from those stated, implied, or inferred in this content. The abbreviations used in this document are explained on the next page.
List of abbreviationsAbbreviation Meaning Abbreviation Meaning
AI | Artificial intelligence | FCF | Free cash flow |
AV | Added value | IT | Information technology |
B2C | Operations with natural persons | KPI | Key performance indicators |
BiH | Bosnia and Herzegovina | M&A | Mergers and acquisitions |
CAGR | Cumulative annual growth rate | MNE | Montenegro |
CAPEX | Capital expenditure | MW, GW / GWh, TWh | Megawatt, Gigawatt / Gigawatt hours, Terawatt hours |
CC | Contact centre | NG | Natural gas |
CIR | Cost-to-income ratio | OPEX | Operating expenses |
CRO | Croatia | RES | Renewable energy sources |
CX | Customer experience | ROACE | Return on average capital employed |
EBITDA | Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization | SEE | Southeast Europe |
EE | Electricity | SLO | Slovenia |
ESG | Environmental, social, governance | SME | Small and medium size enterprises |
EU | European Union | SRB | Serbia |
EV | Electric vehicle | SS | Service station |