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Pacific Basin Shipping : First Quarter 2025 Trading Update Presentation
Pacific Basin Shipping : First Quarter 2025 Trading Update

About this update from Pacific Basin Shipping Limited
Handysize Market Spot Rates (BHSI) Supramax Market Spot Rates (BSI) US$/day net* 38k dwt (tonnage adjusted^) US$/day net* 58k dwt 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 FFA Average* $9,120 8,000 $9,300 6,000 4,000 1Q25 Average: $8,000 24% YoY 2,000 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2023 2024 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 FFA Average* 10,000 $9,860 8,000 $9,350 6,000 4,000 1Q25 Average: $7,900 36% YoY 2,000 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2025 2025 (FFA) Data as at 11 April 2025 Spot market rates adjusted downwards to reflect the smaller average deadweight tonnage of our PB Core Handysize fleet compared to the Baltic Exchange benchmark 38,200 dwt vessel * Excludes 5% commission and tonnage adjusted for Handysize Source: Baltic Exchange 2017-2021 range 2017-2021 average 2022 2023 2024 2025 Mill tonnes 200 180 160 140 120 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Main drivers of increased YoY loadings of minor bulk include bauxite, cement and clinker, and fertilisers in 1Q25 Bauxite loadings from Guinea into China remained strong Chinese steel exports and production up 6% and 1% YoY in 1Q25, but uncertainty around steel industry output remains Largest detractors included forest products, scrap and steel Mill tonnes 53 48 43 38 33 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Grain loadings into China reduced sharply by 54% YoY due to increase in domestic production as it plans to reduce reliance on imports amidst rising trade frictions Harvest delays in Brazil caused by weather conditions have slowed its grain exports, but it is poised to achieve record crop Concerns over tariffs between China and US triggered a rush to import soybeans from US, pushing US grain loadings up by 11% YoY Mill tonnes 130 120 110 100 90 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Reduction in global loadings due to weaker demand from China and India Coal volume to China dropped by 11% given its large stockpiles and increased supply from Mongolia overland and domestically Volumes to India down 6% as its manufacturing activity slowed and domestic production picked up However, imports into other Asia countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh offered some support Mill tonnes 150 140 130 120 110 100 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Operations in Australia were disrupted by cyclones in January and February, resulting in 6% year-on-year decrease in loadings Iron ore loadings into China dropped 9% in 1Q25 due to weak domestic demand and trade tensions Iron ore trade volumes are expected to be supported by post-disruption catch-up and potential further stimulus to address tariffs Source: Indicative loading data and material from Oceanbolt, all rights reserved. Data as at 14 April 2025, subject to revision Handysize Core Business TCE US$/day Reversal of Handysize freight tax provision of US$8.6 18,000 million resulted in TCE +US$1,280/day in 4Q24 15,000 $12,570 $13,740 $14,000 +1,280 12,000 $11,050 $10,940 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 $11,390 # $10,150 # $10,950 # 77% 25% 62% of of of days days days Average daily TCE earnings in 1Q25 Handysize: US$10,940 per day, down 1% YoY Supramax: US$12,210 per day, down 10% YoY Cover in 2025 ▪ We have covered 77% and 95% of committed days in 2Q25 for our Handysize and Supramax core fleet at US$11,390 and US$12,400 respectively, which are currently 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 2H25 2025 Indicative 2024 Core Fleet P&L Break-even incl. G&A = US$9,820 Supramax Core Business TCE US$/day Reversal of Supramax freight tax provision of US$9.2 18,000 million resulted in TCE +US$1,920/day in 4Q24 15,000 $13,610 $13,780 $14,860 # # +1,920 $12,400 # 12,000 $12,220 $12,210 $12,090 $12,270 9,000 6,000 95% 37% 72% of47% of of 3,000 daysof days days days 0 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 2H25 2025 Indicative 2024 Core fleet P&L Break-even incl. G&A = US$10,720 above market spot and FFA rates ▪ We have covered 25% and 37% of committed days in the second half of 2025 2Q 2025 FFA rates : 3Q 2025 FFA rates : ▪ Handysize: 3 $9,110 ▪ Handysize: $9,130 ▪ Supramax: $9,870 ▪ Supramax: $9,850 As at mid April 2025 , indicative TCE rates only as voyages are still in progress Current values of scrubber benefits are approximately US$30 and US$180 per day across our Core Handysize and Supramax fleet respectively; When a vessel with a scrubber is assigned a cargo, its TCE rate may be higher due to the added benefit of the scrubber ^ Source: Baltic Exchange, data as at 11 April 2025, excludes 5% commission and Handysize FFA rates are tonnage adjusted Core Business Operating Activity Handysize Outperformance vs Index (BHSI)* US$/day 6,000 Scrubber contribution Relative outperformance 4,000 3,210 2,940 2,000 2,040 1,130 540 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 In 1Q25, we outperformed the average Handysize (BHSI 38k dwt tonnage-adjusted) index* by US$2,940 or 37% per day Outperformance increased notably in 1Q25 compared to same time last year as freight rates softened due to seasonality, while our outperformance was limited in 1Q24 due to unusually strong momentum in late 2023 that set a higher base for start of 2024 In 1Q25, scrubbers fitted to our six core Handysize vessels contributed US$20 per day to our outperformance Supramax Outperformance vs Index (BSI)* US$/day Scrubber contribution 6,000 Relative outperformance 4,000 1,300 3,620 4,310 2,000 0 (480) -2,000 (1,600) -4,000 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 In 1Q25, we outperformed the average Supramax (BSI 58k dwt) index* by US$4,310 or 55% per day Outperformance grew due to seasonal weakness in 1Q25 which we anticipated and took cover before the start of the year In 1Q25, scrubbers fitted to our 34 core Supramax vessels contributed US$220 per day toour outperformance Operating Activity Margin US$/day Margin 2,000 1,500 1,300 1,000 820 510 580 500 90 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 In 1Q25, our operating activity generated a margin of US$820 per day, an increase of 61% YoY Our operating activity days increased 4% YoY to 6,950 days in 1Q25 (1Q24: 6,660 days) *Excludes 5% commission / BHSI 38k dwt (tonnage adjusted) / BSI 58k dwt 2024E Dry Bulk Trade Volumes YOY Million Tonnes Coal 1,366 3.9% Iron Ore 1,596 3.5% Total (Iron Ore + Coal) 2,962 3.7% Nickel Ore 55 10.0% Bauxite / Alumina 223 9.3% Agribulks 206 5.6% Salt 58 5.5% Soybean 174 4.8% Focus Sugar 69 4.5% Steel Products 392 4.3% Fertiliser 203 4.1% Coke & Petcoke 104 3.0% PB Forest Products 322 1.9% Wheat / Grains 362 1.4% Copper Concentrates 39 0.0% Scrap Steel 92 0.0% Others -0.7% 140 Stone & Aggregate -2.4% 162 Cement -3.6% 134 Manganese Ore -4.4% 43 PB focus cargo 2,778 2.8% Total Dry Bulk 5,740 3.2% (tonne-mile effect = 4.8%) (minor bulk tonne-mile effect = 3.9%) ▪ Minor Bulk: Broad-based increased trade 2025F Dry Bulk Trade Volumes YOY volume of about 1.2% for minor bulks Million Tonnes Coal -1.7% ▪ Manganese ore, bauxite and fertilisers 1,343 Iron Ore -0.2% 1,593 trades are expected to remain robust and drive minor bulk volumes Total (Iron Ore + Coal) -0.9% 2,936 ▪ Iron Ore: Reduced domestic demand and Manganese Ore 46 7.0% Others 145 3.6% heightened trade frictions, which led to Soybean 180 3.4% China's plan to cut steel output, is expected Bauxite / Alumina 230 3.1% to weigh on iron ore demand Fertiliser 209 3.0% Focus Coke & Petcoke 107 2.9% ▪ Coal: Demand from major importers India Copper Concentrates 40 2.6% Stone & Aggregate 165 1.9% and China is expected to continue to decline Nickel Ore 56 1.8% due to increased supply from domestic PB Forest Products 326 1.2% production and overland from Mongolia, Wheat / Grains 366 1.1% while green transition in Europe and some Scrap Steel 93 1.1% Asian countries such as Japan and South Salt 58 0.0% Korea continues Agribulks -0.5% 205 Cement -0.7% 133 ▪ Grains: Brazil is projected to achieve record Steel Products -1.3% 387 Sugar -7.2% 64 soybean crop in 2025, and is poised to replace US as top exporter to China, PB focus cargo 2,810 1.2% potentially increasing tonne-mile ▪ However China's plan to reduce reliance on Total Dry Bulk 5,746 0.1% (tonne-mile effect = 0.3%) imports amidst rising global trade tensions may weigh on other grain (wheat, corn, (minor bulk tonne-mile effect = 1.0%) sorghum) volumes in the long run Source: Clarksons Research, data as at March 2025 Total Dry Bulk Supply Development of Total Fleet 5% 4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F Handysize/Supramax Supply Development % of Total Fleet 5% 4.5% 4% 3.4% 4.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2026F Minor bulk fleet is forecast to grow 4.5% driven by more deliveries in 2025, which are estimated to account for around 5% of the Handysize and Supramax fleet, while forecast scrapping is only 0.5% of the fleet Combined Handysize and Supramax orderbook currently stands at 10.4% of total fleet, newbuild ordering dropped by 90% year-on-year in 1Q25 New Deliveries Deliveries Forecast Scrapping Scrapping Forecast Net Fleet Growth Total Dry Bulk Fleet Age Profile Handysize/Supramax Fleet Age Profile Dwt m Dwt m 120 32% of existing fleet delivered 40 30% of existing fleet delivered Scrapping pool continues to increase; Approx.14% and 12% of Handysize and Supramax capacity are over 20 years old 100 35 13% of the 10.4% of ▪ 10% of the 10.3% of 30 fleet is 20 the fleet is 80 fleet is 20 the fleet is 25 years or on order years or on order 60 20 older older 40 15 10 20 5 0 <2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 0 <2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Compliance with emissions regulations (e.g. CII, EU ETS, FuelEU and IMO mid- term measures) will likely further reduce dry bulk supply through slower speeds, scrapping and greater downtime for retrofitting energy-saving technology Source: Clarksons Research, data as at March 2025 DWT m % Daily Suez Canal Transits (7-Day Moving Average) of Total Fleet 0.8% 14 Dec - near-miss incident involving a Containerships vessel resulting in a pause of major liner Bulkcarriers vessels through Red Sea 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 Attempts at de-escalation in the Red Sea came undone as attacks resumed after ceasefire between Israel and Hamas fell apart This underscores the fragility of truce and persistent geopolitical tensions that continue to impact shipping industry, resulting in longer voyages which add to greater tonne-miles However, a relatively limited share of dry bulk vessels transit Suez Canal in comparison to other shipping segments, particularly containerships Brokers estimate the potential dry bulk tonne-mile impact of full recovery in Suez Canal transits to be from -1% to -3% Source: Clarksons Research, data as at 11 April 2025
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