Handysize Market Spot Rates (BHSI)
Supramax Market Spot Rates (BSI)
US$/day net* | 38k dwt (tonnage adjusted^) |
US$/day net*
58k dwt
18,000 | |||
16,000 | |||
14,000 | |||
12,000 | |||
10,000 | FFA Average* | ||
$9,120 | |||
8,000 | $9,300 | ||
6,000 | |||
4,000 | 1Q25 Average: $8,000 24%YoY | ||
2,000 | |||
- | |||
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun | Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | ||
2023 | 2024 |
18,000 | |||||||||
16,000 | |||||||||
14,000 | |||||||||
12,000 | FFA Average* | ||||||||
10,000 | $9,860 | ||||||||
8,000 | $9,350 | ||||||||
6,000 | |||||||||
4,000 | 1Q25 Average: $7,900 36%YoY | ||||||||
2,000 | |||||||||
- | |||||||||
Jan Feb Mar | Apr May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
2025 | 2025 (FFA) |
Data as at 11 April 2025
-
Spot market rates adjusted downwards to reflect the smaller average deadweight tonnage of our PB Core Handysize fleet compared to the Baltic Exchange benchmark 38,200 dwt vessel * Excludes 5% commission and tonnage adjusted for Handysize
Source: Baltic Exchange
2017-2021 range | 2017-2021 average | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
Mill tonnes
200
180
160
140
120
100
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
- Main drivers of increased YoY loadings of minor bulk include bauxite, cement and clinker, and fertilisers in 1Q25
- Bauxite loadings from Guinea into China remained strong
- Chinese steel exports and production up 6% and 1% YoY in 1Q25, but uncertainty around steel industry output remains
- Largest detractors included forest products, scrap and steel
Mill tonnes
53
48
43
38
33
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
- Grain loadings into China reduced sharply by 54% YoY due to increase in domestic production as it plans to reduce reliance on imports amidst rising trade frictions
- Harvest delays in Brazil caused by weather conditions have slowed its grain exports, but it is poised to achieve record crop
- Concerns over tariffs between China and US triggered a rush to import soybeans from US, pushing US grain loadings up by 11% YoY
Mill tonnes
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
- Reduction in global loadings due to weaker demand from China and India
- Coal volume to China dropped by 11% given its large stockpiles and increased supply from Mongolia overland and domestically
- Volumes to India down 6% as its manufacturing activity slowed and domestic production picked up
- However, imports into other Asia countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh offered some support
Mill tonnes
150
140
130
120
110
100
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
- Operations in Australia were disrupted by cyclones in January and February, resulting in 6% year-on-year decrease in loadings
- Iron ore loadings into China dropped 9% in 1Q25 due to weak domestic demand and trade tensions
- Iron ore trade volumes are expected to be supported by post-disruption catch-up and potential further stimulus to address tariffs
Source: Indicative loading data and material from Oceanbolt, all rights reserved. Data as at 14 April 2025, subject to revision
Handysize Core Business TCE
US$/day | Reversal of Handysize freight tax provision of US$8.6 | ||
18,000 | |||
million resulted in TCE +US$1,280/day in 4Q24 | |||
15,000 | $12,570 | $13,740 | $14,000 |
+1,280 | |||
12,000 | $11,050 | $10,940 | |
9,000 | |||
6,000 | |||
3,000 | |||
0 |
$11,390# $10,150# $10,950#
77% | 25% | 62% |
of | of | of |
days | days | days |
Average daily TCE earnings in 1Q25
- Handysize: US$10,940 per day, down 1% YoY
- Supramax: US$12,210 per day, down 10% YoY
Cover in 2025
▪ We have covered 77% and 95% of committed days in 2Q25 for our Handysize and |
Supramax core fleet at US$11,390 and US$12,400 respectively, which are currently |
1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 2H25 | 2025 |
Indicative 2024 Core Fleet P&L Break-even incl. G&A = US$9,820 |
Supramax Core Business TCE
US$/day | Reversal of Supramax freight tax provision of US$9.2 | ||||||||||||||||
18,000 | million resulted in TCE +US$1,920/day in 4Q24 | ||||||||||||||||
15,000 | $13,610 | $13,780 | $14,860 | ||||||||||||||
# | # | ||||||||||||||||
+1,920 | $12,400 | # | |||||||||||||||
12,000 | $12,220 | $12,210 | $12,090 | $12,270 | |||||||||||||
9,000 | |||||||||||||||||
6,000 | 95% | 37% | 72% | ||||||||||||||
of47% | of | of | |||||||||||||||
3,000 | daysof | days | days | ||||||||||||||
days | |||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||
1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 2H25 | 2025 | ||||||||||
Indicative 2024 Core fleet P&L Break-even incl. G&A = US$10,720
above market spot and FFA rates |
▪ We have covered 25% and 37% of committed days in the second half of 2025 |
2Q 2025 FFA rates : | 3Q 2025 FFA rates : | |
▪ Handysize:3$9,110 | ▪ | Handysize: $9,130 |
▪ Supramax: $9,870 | ▪ | Supramax: $9,850 |
- As at mid April 2025, indicative TCE rates only as voyages are still in progress
Current values of scrubber benefits are approximately US$30 and US$180 per day across our Core Handysize and Supramax fleet respectively; When a vessel with a scrubber is assigned a cargo, its TCE rate may be higher due to the added benefit of the scrubber
^ Source: Baltic Exchange, data as at 11 April 2025, excludes 5% commission and Handysize FFA rates are tonnage adjusted
Core Business
Operating Activity |
Handysize Outperformance vs Index (BHSI)*
US$/day
6,000 | Scrubber contribution | ||||||||||||
Relative outperformance | |||||||||||||
4,000 | |||||||||||||
3,2102,940 | |||||||||||||
2,000 | 2,040 | ||||||||||||
1,130 | |||||||||||||
540 | |||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||
1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | |||||
23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
- In 1Q25, we outperformed the average Handysize (BHSI 38k dwt tonnage-adjusted) index* by US$2,940 or 37% per day
- Outperformance increased notably in 1Q25 compared to same time last year as freight rates softened due to seasonality, while our outperformance was limited in 1Q24 due to unusually strong momentum in late 2023 that set a higher base for start of 2024
- In 1Q25, scrubbers fitted to our six core Handysize vessels contributed US$20 per day to our outperformance
Supramax Outperformance vs Index (BSI)*
US$/day | Scrubber contribution | ||||||||||||
6,000 | Relative outperformance | ||||||||||||
4,000 | 1,300 | 3,6204,310 | |||||||||||
2,000 | |||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||
(480) | |||||||||||||
-2,000 | |||||||||||||
(1,600) | |||||||||||||
-4,000 | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | ||||
23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
- In 1Q25, we outperformed the average Supramax (BSI 58k dwt) index* by US$4,310 or 55% per day
- Outperformance grew due to seasonal weakness in 1Q25 which we anticipated and took cover before the start of the year
- In 1Q25, scrubbers fitted to our 34 core Supramax vessels contributed US$220 per day toour outperformance
Operating Activity Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||
US$/day | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||
2,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
1,500 | 1,300 | |||||||||||||||||||||
1,000 | 820 | |||||||||||||||||||||
510 | 580 | |||||||||||||||||||||
500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | ||||||||||||||
23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
- In 1Q25, our operating activity generated a margin of US$820 per day, an increase of 61% YoY
- Our operating activity days increased 4% YoY to 6,950 days in 1Q25 (1Q24: 6,660 days)
*Excludes 5% commission / BHSI 38k dwt (tonnage adjusted) / BSI 58k dwt
2024E Dry Bulk Trade Volumes YOY
Million Tonnes | Coal | 1,366 | 3.9% | |||||||
Iron Ore | 1,596 | 3.5% | ||||||||
Total (Iron Ore + Coal) | 2,962 | 3.7% | ||||||||
Nickel Ore | 55 | 10.0% | ||||||||
Bauxite / Alumina | 223 | 9.3% | ||||||||
Agribulks | 206 | 5.6% | ||||||||
Salt | 58 | 5.5% | ||||||||
Soybean | 174 | 4.8% | ||||||||
Focus | Sugar | 69 | 4.5% | |||||||
Steel Products | 392 | 4.3% | ||||||||
Fertiliser | 203 | 4.1% | ||||||||
Coke & Petcoke | 104 | 3.0% | ||||||||
PB | Forest Products | 322 | 1.9% | |||||||
Wheat / Grains | 362 | 1.4% | ||||||||
Copper Concentrates | 39 | 0.0% | ||||||||
Scrap Steel | 92 | 0.0% | ||||||||
Others | -0.7% | 140 | ||||||||
Stone & Aggregate | -2.4% | 162 | ||||||||
Cement | -3.6% | 134 | ||||||||
Manganese Ore | -4.4% | 43 | ||||||||
PB focus cargo | 2,778 | 2.8% | ||||||||
Total Dry Bulk | 5,740 | 3.2% |
(tonne-mile effect = 4.8%)
(minor bulk tonne-mile effect = 3.9%)
▪ Minor Bulk: Broad-based increased trade | |||||||||
2025F Dry Bulk Trade Volumes YOY | volume of about 1.2% for minor bulks | ||||||||
Million Tonnes | Coal | -1.7% | ▪ Manganese ore, bauxite and fertilisers | ||||||
1,343 | |||||||||
Iron Ore | -0.2% | 1,593 | trades are expected to remain robust and | ||||||
drive minor bulk volumes | |||||||||
Total (Iron Ore + Coal) | -0.9% | 2,936 | |||||||
▪ Iron Ore: Reduced domestic demand and | |||||||||
Manganese Ore | 46 | 7.0% | |||||||
Others | 145 | 3.6% | heightened trade frictions, which led to | ||||||
Soybean | 180 | 3.4% | China's plan to cut steel output, is expected | ||||||
Bauxite / Alumina | 230 | 3.1% | to weigh on iron ore demand | ||||||
Fertiliser | 209 | 3.0% | |||||||
Focus | Coke & Petcoke | 107 | 2.9% | ▪ Coal: Demand from major importers India | |||||
Copper Concentrates | 40 | 2.6% | |||||||
Stone & Aggregate | 165 | 1.9% | and China is expected to continue to decline | ||||||
Nickel Ore | 56 | 1.8% | due to increased supply from domestic | ||||||
PB | Forest Products | 326 | 1.2% | production and overland from Mongolia, | |||||
Wheat / Grains | 366 | 1.1% | while green transition in Europe and some | ||||||
Scrap Steel | 93 | 1.1% | Asian countries such as Japan and South | ||||||
Salt | 58 | 0.0% | Korea continues | ||||||
Agribulks | -0.5% | 205 | |||||||
Cement | -0.7% | 133 | ▪ Grains: Brazil is projected to achieve record | ||||||
Steel Products | -1.3% | 387 | |||||||
Sugar -7.2% | 64 | soybean crop in 2025, and is poised to | |||||||
replace US as top exporter to China, | |||||||||
PB focus cargo | 2,810 | 1.2% | |||||||
potentially increasing tonne-mile | |||||||||
▪ However China's plan to reduce reliance on | |||||||||
Total Dry Bulk | 5,746 | 0.1% | |||||||
(tonne-mile effect = 0.3%) | imports amidst rising global trade tensions | ||||||||
may weigh on other grain (wheat, corn, | |||||||||
(minor bulk tonne-mile effect = 1.0%) | |||||||||
sorghum) volumes in the long run | |||||||||
Source: Clarksons Research, data as at March 2025
Total Dry Bulk Supply Development
- of Total Fleet 5%
4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||
2.9% | 3.1% | |||||
3% | ||||||
2%
1%
0%
-1%
2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025F | 2026F |
Handysize/Supramax Supply Development
% of Total Fleet | |||||
5% | 4.5% | ||||
4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | |||
3.3% | 3.6% | ||||
3% | |||||
2% | |||||
1% | |||||
0% | |||||
-1% | |||||
2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025F | 2026F |
- Minor bulk fleet is forecast to grow 4.5% driven by more deliveries in 2025, which are estimated to account for around 5% of the Handysize and Supramax fleet, while forecast scrapping is only 0.5% of the fleet
- Combined Handysize and Supramax orderbook currently stands at 10.4% of total fleet, newbuild ordering dropped by 90% year-on-year in 1Q25
New Deliveries | Deliveries Forecast | Scrapping | Scrapping Forecast | Net Fleet Growth | |||||
Total Dry Bulk Fleet Age Profile | Handysize/Supramax Fleet Age Profile | ||||||||
Dwt m | Dwt m | ||||||||
120 | 32% of existing fleet delivered | 40 | 30% of existing fleet delivered |
- Scrapping pool continues to increase; Approx.14% and 12% of Handysize and Supramax capacity are over 20 years old
100 | 35 | 13% of the | 10.4% of | ▪ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10% of the | 10.3% of | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fleet is 20 | the fleet is | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | fleet is 20 | the fleet is | 25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
years or | on order | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
years or | on order | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | 20 | older | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
older | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | <2000 | 2001 | 2003 | 2005 | 2007 | 2009 | 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | 2027 | 2029 | 0 | <2000 | 2001 | 2003 | 2005 | 2007 | 2009 | 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | 2027 | 2029 | |
Compliance with emissions regulations (e.g. CII, EU ETS, FuelEU and IMO mid- term measures) will likely further reduce dry bulk supply through slower speeds, scrapping and greater downtime for retrofitting energy-saving technology
Source: Clarksons Research, data as at March 2025
DWT m % | Daily Suez Canal Transits (7-Day Moving Average) | |
of Total Fleet | ||
0.8% | 14 Dec - near-miss incident involving a | Containerships |
vessel resulting in a pause of major liner | Bulkcarriers | |
vessels through Red Sea | ||
0.7% | ||
0.6% | ||
0.5% | ||
0.4% | ||
0.3% | ||
0.2% | ||
0.1% |
0.0%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun | Jul | Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr | |||||||||||||||||
23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
- Attempts at de-escalation in the Red Sea came undone as attacks resumed after ceasefire between Israel and Hamas fell apart
- This underscores the fragility of truce and persistent geopolitical tensions that continue to impact shipping industry, resulting in longer voyages which add to greater tonne-miles
- However, a relatively limited share of dry bulk vessels transit Suez Canal in comparison to other shipping segments, particularly containerships
- Brokers estimate the potential dry bulk tonne-mile impact of full recovery in Suez Canal transits to be from -1% to -3%
Source: Clarksons Research, data as at 11 April 2025