National Bank Of Canada TSX:NA
National Bank of Canada : SSA supply at the half
Source: MarketScreener
By Ethan Currie
With the first half of the year complete, we use this chart-heavy Market View to examine issuance from our select universe of SSA names (constituent members are detailed on page 3), which has set a brisk pace in 2026. Similarly, we've recently highlighted first-half supply dynamics from our Canadian provincial and PSE issuers (here and here, for example). Despite one of the busiest issuance periods in the last decade-including record January and May deal volumes-spreads have continued to compress as robust investor demand has readily absorbed new bonds. With issuers well advanced on their announced funding targets, history points to a seasonal slowdown beginning this
July 2, 2026 - (Vol. X, No. 78)
Market View
Economics and Strategy
summer (with select benchmark issuance windows still likely to present themselves). Notwithstanding ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic
/ geopolitical backdrop, SSA fundamentals remain supportive of firm valuations: balance sheets are well capitalized, borrowing programs are progressing well, and investor demand continues to show signs of strength in primary and secondary (in part thanks to higher all-in yields). With demand for high quality product unlikely to be fully sated in the second half as supply moderates, we see scope for spreads to remain at notionally tighter levels.
Chart 1: Gross SSA supply tracking in line with last yearGross SSA bond supply pacing (all currencies)
USD bln (equiv)
2010-2025 Avg
2025
2026
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
0
Chart 2: Biggest January and May of SSA supply on recordGross SSA bond supply in first half of the calendar year (all currencies)
USD bln (equiv)
Jun May Apr
Mar Feb Jan
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
0
Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: 39 ticker aggregate (see page 3), 15Y Avg is 2011-2025 Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: 39 ticker aggregate; translated to USD on deal date FX
Bond supply from our select group of global SSA issuers (see contents note on page 3) maintained a brisk pace in the first half of the year, broadly in line with 2025's tally. Excluding 2025, YTD issuance is the highest since 2014. Within our post-GFC sample, January and May 2026 set record supply for their respective months, with both issuance waves accompanied by tighter spreads.
Year-to-date share of gross SSA supply not denominated in USD and EUR
%
22
20
Chart 4: Weighted term of issuance heads longer Year-to-date weighted average term of gross SSA supply by currency 10Years
USD
WAT (All $)
9
18 8
16 7
14 6
12 5
10 4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
8 3
Source: NBC, Bloomberg Source: NBC, Bloomberg
The bulk of issuance remains denominated in USD and EUR, though first-half supply has become progressively less concentrated in these core currencies (for a third consecutive year). Meantime, the YTD weighted average term of issuance has edged higher, driven by a notable extension in USD deals, where funding conditions and investor demand have continued to favour longer product.
USD bln (equiv)
2010-2025 Avg
2025
2026
Chart 5: Funding programs once again well advanced in H1… Gross SSA bond supply by month: 2026, 2025, and LT average (all currencies) 160140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
Chart 6: …with H2 supply decelerating in most (all) casesGross SSA bond supply by calendar year half
USD bln (equiv)
From 2010-2025, H2 supply accounted for 36.5% of full year supply, on average
H2
H1
800
700
34%
600
38%
41%
31%
38%
40%
34%
33%
30%
500
37%
44%
37%
39%
38%
35%
34%
400
300
200
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
Source: NBC, Bloomberg Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: Labels denote H2 supply as % of total year supply
As usual, SSA issuance is front-loaded in the first half of the calendar year. Empirically, second half supply averages around 60% of January-June issuance, with recent years falling short of that share. With issuers once again well advanced on their funding targets, we expect supply to slow in H2. Core (USD, EUR) currencies remain in focus in H2, with no clear historical tendencies to note.
7D rolling gross SSA supply: 2026 and prior 5Y average (all currencies)
USD bln (equiv)
Prior 5Y Avg
2026
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
Chart 8: A reminder of last summer's benchmark supplyGross SSA benchmark bond supply in Jul-Aug 2025 by issuer, currency, tenor
USD bln (equiv)
Ticker
Currency
Tenor
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
IBRD
KFW ASIA EIB IDAWBG
Other
EUR
USD
GBP
AUD
CAD
3Y
5Y
7Y
10Y
0
Source: NBC, Bloomberg Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: Benchmark supply in this case are deals >=$1 bln USD equiv
While currency trends offer little guidance, the seasonal issuance pattern is more consistent. A roughly four-week lull typically begins in mid-July before the primary market reopens through selective issuance windows, often led by larger benchmark transactions. World Bank issuance (IBRD, IDAWBG) has historically been prominent during this period as its fiscal year begins on July 1st.
12M indicative SOFR spread range on representative 'Tier 1' SSA (IBRD)
bps
Current
1/5/2026
70
60
50
40
30
20
Chart 10: Valuations grinded tighter, flatter in H2:2025Indicative SOFR spreads on representative 'Tier 1' SSA (IBRD)
Spread indication, bps
Basis, bps
Basis Spread (RHS) 10Y IBRD
5Y IBRD
70 26
65 24
60 22
55 20
50 18
45 16
40 14
35 12
30 10
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Nov-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
May-26
Jun-26
25 8
10
2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y
Source: NBC | Note: Box denotes 2nd and 3rd quartile, whiskers show full range over 12M Source: NBC | Note: 5-day smoothed indications
Spreads remain at notionally tight(er) levels and have compressed YTD despite a brisk supply pace. Last year, valuations firmed again and credit curves flattened as funding requirements closed in the second half. We see scope for a similar dynamic this year, with spreads remaining tight and potentially reaching fresh lows later this summer.
For additional SSA coverage, including mailing list access to our Market View reports, SSA Monitor, and SSA Fact Sheet, reach out to your Capital Markets representative at NBC.
Contents Note for SSA Reporting: For SSA / PSE / Provincial aggregate statistics on issuance and debt distribution, NBC Economics & Strategy uses a select list of issuers / deals, dependent on data availability and report timing. Gross supply figures are generated using Bloomberg's SRCH function (active + matured bonds), with inclusion criteria based on a list of tickers (hereafter, 'NBC's simplified defined XXX bond universe'). Deals are analyzed in the local currency and converted to USD equivalent (unless otherwise stated) using the prevailing FX conversion on the deal effective date. If / when referring to "benchmark" issuance, deals are filtered by minimum size requirements (>=$250MM in USD equivalent). If issuers are presented together in tables or visuals, they may be ordered or categorized in any or all of the following ways (which will also be noted): by Bloomberg associated ticker (alphabetical), by denomination of funding program (USD, EUR or other), by size of targeted issuance, by size of outstanding bond program, and / or by issuer classification (SSA, Canadian PSE, Canadian provincial). Unless otherwise stated, issuer classification statistics are not aggregated (i.e., 'SSA total gross bond supply' would refer to defined SSA ticker list and not include Canadian PSE / Canadian provincial issuers, nor would a filter be applied to benchmark sizes). If data presented as 'SSA + PSE + Provincial benchmark gross bond supply', the reader should interpret this as the aggregate of three defined bond universes, according to the benchmark filtering methodology outlined above). Other aggregates or parameters may be used, in which case they will be specifically defined in a note.
For questions on methodology or presentation, or more information / analysis, please contact the Economics & Strategy team at NBC.
The NBC simplified defined SSA bond universe is defined by the follower ticker list (39, alphabetical): AFDB, AGFRNC, AIIB, ASIA, BNG, BOEN, CADES, CANADA, CDCEPS, COE, EBRD, EDC, EFSF, EIB, ERSTAA, ESM, EUROF, FINNVE, IADB, IBRD, IDAWBG, IDBINV, IFC, IFFIM, JBIC, KBN, KFW, KOMINS, KOMMUN, KUNTA, LBANK, NEDWBK, NIB, NRW, NRWBK OKB, RENTEN, SEK | Note: $100MM (USD Equiv) minimum size
requirement for deal / issuance statistics *(Used in this report)*
The NBC simplified defined Canadian PSE bond universe is defined by the follower ticker list (6, alphabetical): BCIMCO, CADEPO, CPPIBC, OMERFT, ONTTFT, PSPCAP
The NBC simplified defined Canadian Provincial bond universe is defined by the follower ticker list (15, alphabetical): ALBCAP, ALTA, BRCOL, MP, NBMFC, NBRNS, NF, NFLAB, NS, OHYD, ONT, PRINCE, Q, QHEL, SCDA
514-879-2529
Stéfane MarionChief Economist and Strategist
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