National Bank of Canada : SSA supply at the half

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SSA supply at the half By Ethan Currie With the first half of the year complete, we use this chart-heavy Market View to examine issuance from our select universe of SSA names (constituent members are detailed on page 3), which has set a brisk pace in 2026. Similarly, we've recently highlighted first-half supply dynamics from our Canadian provincial and PSE issuers (here and here, for example). Despite one of the busiest issuance periods in the last decade-including record January and May deal volumes-spreads have continued to compress as robust investor demand has readily absorbed new bonds. With issuers well advanced on their announced funding targets, history points to a seasonal slowdown beginning this July 2, 2026 - (Vol. X, No. 78) Market View Economics and Strategy summer (with select benchmark issuance windows still likely to present themselves). Notwithstanding ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic / geopolitical backdrop, SSA fundamentals remain supportive of firm valuations: balance sheets are well capitalized, borrowing programs are progressing well, and investor demand continues to show signs of strength in primary and secondary (in part thanks to higher all-in yields). With demand for high quality product unlikely to be fully sated in the second half as supply moderates, we see scope for spreads to remain at notionally tighter levels. Chart 1: Gross SSA supply tracking in line with last year Gross SSA bond supply pacing (all currencies) USD bln (equiv) 2010-2025 Avg 2025 2026 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 0 Chart 2: Biggest January and May of SSA supply on record Gross SSA bond supply in first half of the calendar year (all currencies) USD bln (equiv) Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: 39 ticker aggregate (see page 3), 15Y Avg is 2011-2025 Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: 39 ticker aggregate; translated to USD on deal date FX Bond supply from our select group of global SSA issuers (see contents note on page 3) maintained a brisk pace in the first half of the year, broadly in line with 2025's tally. Excluding 2025, YTD issuance is the highest since 2014. Within our post-GFC sample, January and May 2026 set record supply for their respective months, with both issuance...

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