Iran's Hormuz gamble ushers in a tense new normal for Gulf energy: Bousso

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By Ron BoussoThe Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have shattered a status quo that prevailed among Middle East oil and gas producers for decades. Even if the current, shaky ceasefire holds, the uneasy “new normal” has likely set the stage for yet another round of conflict.Tehran has now demonstrated both its ability and willingness to seal off the critical waterway and strike vital infrastructure across the region, fundamentally altering the risk calculus for its neighbours and jeopardizing Gulf countries’ long‑term oil and gas strategies.The six‑week war laid bare deep tensions between the Islamic Republic and its key regional neighbours Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq - all close U.S. allies. They had long avoided direct confrontation with Tehran under a tacit understanding that war would devastate their shared economic interests. But that entente cordiale has now been blown apart.At the heart of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz. Iran closed the waterway for the first time in history, trapping nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies inside the Gulf, delivering a devastating shock to the region and the global economy. Even if shipping ultimately resumes, the unprecedented act marks a historic rupture.Iran has signalled that it wants to retain leverage over the strait under any future peace deal, floating the idea of controlling traffic and charging vessels a transit fee. U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Tehran to fully reopen the waterway, and on Sunday said the ​U.S. Navy would immediately start blockading the strait, raising the stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to reach a deal to end .Yet even a formal reopening would do little to erase the lesson the war has taught Iran’s neighbours. The threat of Iran closing the strait - now proven feasible with limited military effort - is a genie that cannot be put back into the bottle.NO WAY OUTThe war has sharply exposed how vulnerable the region’s energy infrastructure is.Fighting between the U.S., Israel and Iran quickly spilled across borders as Iranian missiles and drones struck dozens of targets in neighbouring countries, including major oil and gas facilities across the Gulf.Around 11 million barrels per day of oil production and Qatar’s entire LNG output were forced offline, while refineries, export terminals and other suffere...

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