ICICI Securities predicts Nifty bull case target at 28,100 by March 2026; here are its top stock picks

About this update from Archean Chemical Industries Ltd.

A recent correction in Indian equities and a 6% earnings downgrade over the past five months have pulled Nifty50 valuations back to more reasonable levels (20x forward PE), even as the 10-year Indian bond yield dips to 6.4%, offering a valuation cushion, mentions ICICI Securities in its latest research report.Despite global headwinds, the brokerage remains optimistic on domestic demand-driven plays and sees room for India to gain export market share in global manufacturing.In its latest strategy note, ICICI Securities outlines a constructive but cautious view on Indian equities, pegging the Nifty50 base case target for March 2026 at 26,000, implying 8% upside. The bull case sees the index hitting 28,100 (17% upside), while the bear case assumes a steep slide to 20,000 (17% downside), driven by global recession risks and equity de-rating.Top stock picks at this juncture include Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Ultratech, Tata Steel, L&T, Sun Pharma, GAIL India, Solar Industries, JSW Energy, Tata Communications, and Archean Chemicals, reflecting a tilt toward domestic demand themes and manufacturing beneficiaries.Crossroads of opportunity amid crisisUnlike past crises like the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) or the Covid-19 shock — which offered no room for policy maneuvering — the current global scenario, driven by tariff escalation, presents “exit options”, mentions a note by ICICI Securities. If common sense prevails and US-led tariff hikes are rolled back or moderated via negotiations, markets may avoid the worst-case macro-outcomes.In this base case, India may emerge stronger. The US has proposed significantly higher tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, while keeping hikes on others — including India — relatively moderate. That could shift market share toward Indian exporters in areas like chemicals, textiles, and machinery, where overlap with Chinese exports is high.Exports to the US contributed nearly 18% to India’s total outbound trade in FY24. ICICI Securities notes that key sectors such as gems and jewellery, apparel, electronics, and engineering could either benefit or suffer based on how the US tariff regime unfolds.Differential tariff structures, especially if the US selectively imposes higher duties on China and its North American partners, while keeping India in the lower bracket, could materially improve India’s export competitiveness in machinery, ...

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