Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long- and Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Grupo Financiero Banorte S.A.B. de C.V. (GFNorte) and Banco Mercantil del Norte, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero Banorte (Banorte) at 'BBB-'/'F3', respectively. In addition, Fitch has affirmed Banorte's Viability Rating (VR) at 'bbb-' and its Government Support Rating (GSR) at 'bb+'. Fitch revised the Rating Outlook of the Long-Term IDRs to Positive from Stable.
Fitch has also affirmed the Long- and Short-Term National Scale Ratings of Banorte, Arrendadora y Factor Banorte, S.A. de C.V., SOFOM, E.R., Grupo Financiero Banorte (AyF Banorte), Casa de Bolsa Banorte, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Banorte (CB Banorte) and Almacenadora Banorte, S.A. de C.V., Organizacion Auxiliar del Credito, Grupo Financiero Banorte (Almacenadora Banorte) at 'AAA(mex)' and 'F1+(mex)', respectively. The Rating Outlook for the Long-Term National Ratings is Stable.
The Outlook revision for the IDRs to Positive reflects ongoing improvements in Banorte's overall business and financial profiles. This improvement stems from a diversified business model and prudent risk management that supports consistent growth in total operating income (TOI) and bolsters the bank's financial resilience under the current economic cycle. Fitch could consider an upward rating adjustment if these trends are sustained in the medium term.
Key Rating DriversStable Operating Environment: Fitch expects Banorte to continue to generating business volumes at acceptable risk levels, underpinned by the agency's 'bb+'/Stable Operating Environment (OE) assessment for Mexican banks. While softer GDP growth could result from tariff-related pressures and slower U.S. economic activity, Mexico's large and diversified economy should help keep the Operational Risk Index (ORI) and GDP per capita broadly stable, preserving operating conditions for banks.
Strong Performance Drives Ratings: Banorte's IDRs and National scale ratings are driven by its 'bbb-' VR. Banorte's VR is underpinned by its solid financial performance, supported by its good market position, diversified business profile and prudent risk management. These factors continue to sustain its strong TOI generation, better asset quality than the closest peers and good capitalization metrics. The VR also considers the structural improvements in the funding and liquidity profiles.
Fitch revised Banorte's 'bbb-' business profile score trend to Positive from Stable. Banorte has consolidated its position as Mexico's second-largest bank by loans and deposits, and the gap with closest competitors has expanded. We expect this trend will continue gradually. Banorte's market position and effective strategy have resulted in TOI comparable to its closest local and regional peers. In 3Q25, TOI rose 18% yoy, and averaged USD5,623 million from 2021 to 2024.
Prudent Risk Management: Fitch revised Banorte's risk profile score trend to Positive from Stable for its 'bbb-' score. Fitch's view reflects the bank's sound, consistent underwriting across economic cycles and solid risk control framework aligned its business profile. Banorte reports lower credit losses, non-performing loans ratios and charge-offs than domestic peers, as well as lower net interest income (NII) sensitivity. Balance-sheet expansion has been prudent and consistently supported with high capitalization metrics and ample collateral, which offset the bank's higher concentration versus some peers.
Good Asset Quality: Fitch's assessment of Banorte's 'bbb-' asset quality reflects stable metrics over the past five years. An isolated client increased the stage 3 credits-to-gross loans ratio to 1.4% in 3Q25, up from the five-year average of 1%. Fitch expects the ratio to return to historical levels, supported by Banorte's prudent underwriting and high levels of collateral, which should improve recovery prospects.
Fitch expects Banorte's asset quality to moderately deteriorate in 2026 due to the maturity of loan growth, particularly in consumer lending amid a still challenging operating environment. However, asset quality metrics will remain strong and commensurate with its rating level. The exposure to the public sector is high but not materially different from some large bank peers.
Strong and Resilient Profitability: Fitch's assessment of Banorte's earnings and profitability at 'bbb-' reflects the bank's consistent operating profits driven by resilient NII, moderate credit costs and operational efficiencies. As of 3Q25, the operating profit-to-risk weighted assets (RWA) ratio slightly decreased to 6.0% from 6.2% at 3Q24 (average of 2021 to 2024: 5.3%) due to increased loan impairment charges mainly from a single deteriorated borrower.
Banorte's profitability remains strong due to its robust structural businesses. Fitch expects profitability to remain strong, driven by consistent—though moderating—loan growth, broad product offerings delivered through traditional and digital channels, a hyper-personalization strategy for existing clients, and cross-selling across GFNorte's subsidiaries.
Strong Capitalization: Fitch assesses Banorte's capitalization and leverage at 'bbb-', reflecting robust capital levels and ample buffers above local regulatory limits. At 3Q25, the common equity Tier 1 (CET1)-to-RWA ratio was 14.8%. High loss-absorbing hybrid capital, mostly AT1, lifted the total capital ratio to 22.3% at the same date, which Fitch views positively in this factor. Hybrids comprised 33.2% of regulatory capital. Fitch believes Banorte's capital can absorb expected loan growth and consistent dividends. Total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) requirements will continue to support strong capitalization in 2026 and beyond.
Enhanced Funding and Liquidity Profile: Fitch upgraded Banorte's funding and liquidity factor score to 'bbb-' from 'bb+' on structural improvements in its funding mix and financing costs. Ample branch infrastructure and ongoing digital transformation support these gains. Lower financing costs also reflect proactive efforts to shed expensive funding with strategies like hyper-personalization, combined with growth in payroll distribution, and gradual improvements in high-yield cost of fund relationships.
As of 3Q25, the loan-to-deposit ratio was 104.7% (2021-2024 average: 102.3%), and the net stable funding ratio was 132%. Growing demand deposits is a key strategy: as of 3Q25, they represented 66.3% of total customer deposits and are trending toward peer levels near 75% or higher.
Rating Sensitivities Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade--Banorte's VRs and IDRs are sensitive to a rating action on Mexico's sovereign ratings or a downward revision of Fitch's OE assessment.
--Banorte's ratings could also be downgraded if financial performance deteriorates consistently, with the operating profit-to-RWAs ratio falling below 2%, the CET1 to RWAs ratio decreasing below 12%, and a weakening of Fitch's assessment on the risk profile, denoting deterioration in the asset quality.
--Banorte's national scale ratings will reflect any change in local relativities.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade--Upgrades of Banorte's VR and IDRs could result in the medium-term from a sustained relevant market position that leads to continued TOI growth, while maintaining solid and consistent financial performance, specifically with an operating profit to RWA ratio above 4.75%, CET1-to-RWA ratio and total capital ratios above 14% and 21%, respectively, while the asset quality metrics remain at reasonable levels.
--A positive action in Mexico's sovereign rating or in Fitch's OE assessment.
--Banorte's national scale ratings have no improvement potential because they are at the highest level of the national rating scale.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERSBanorte's Senior Unsecured Debt: The local senior unsecured debt ratings are at the same level as Banorte's 'AAA(mex)' Long-Term National Scale Rating, as the notes' likelihood of default is the same as the issuer and the average expected recoveries.
Banorte's Hybrid Capital Securities: Banorte's Tier 2 subordinated preferred global notes are rated three notches below the bank's VR; two notches for loss severity due to Fitch's expectation of poor recoveries for this type of debt in a default scenario, and one notch for non-performance risk due to the mandatory coupon's deferral. According to the applicable local regulation, coupon deferral will be triggered at relatively high levels of capitalization before the write-down or point of non-viability (PONV) occurs.
Banorte Classified as D-SIB: Banorte's 'bb+' Government Support Rating (GSR) reflects its high systemic importance. The bank is defined as domestic systemically important bank (D-SIB). Due to its market share and ample interconnectivity within the financial system, Fitch considers the authorities' propensity to support as high to avoid contagion risks.
As of 3Q25, Banorte's market share in customer deposits was 13.7%, ranking as the second bank of the system. However, Fitch believes the likelihood of support for Banorte is lower than other large policy banks due to Banorte's private ownership.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIESFactors That Could, Individually Or Collectively, Lead To Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
--A downgrade to Banorte's senior debt rating would mirror any downgrade in the issuer's national scale ratings.
-- A downgrade to Banorte's hybrid capital securities would mirror any downgrade in Banorte's VR. The rating of securities will maintain the relativity with respect to the anchor rating, i.e. a three-notch difference from the VR.
Factors That Could, Individually Or Collectively, Lead To Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
--Banorte's senior debt rating has no improvement potential because it is at the highest level of the national rating scale.
--An upgrade to Banorte's hybrid capital securities would mirror any upgrade in Banorte's VR. The rating of securities will maintain the relativity with respect to the anchor rating, i.e. a three-notch difference from the VR.
Government Support Rating
Factors That Could, Individually Or Collectively, Lead To Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
-- A downgrade to Banorte's GSR could occur if the sovereign's ability to support the bank weakened by sovereign rating downgrade, or if the sovereign's propensity to support the bank becomes less likely.
Factors That Could, Individually Or Collectively, Lead To Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
-- An upgrade to Banorte's GSR is possible in the event of a sovereign upgrade coinciding with a strengthening of the sovereign's ability and propensity to support the bank.
SUBSIDIARIES & AFFILIATES: KEY RATING DRIVERSGFNorte's Ratings Equalized to Banorte's: Fitch considers GFNorte's failure risk is substantially the same as Banorte's, as GFNorte's default risk is highly linked to dividend flows from, and the valuation of, the bank investment. GFNorte's ratings consider with high relevance the low double leverage ratio (investment in subsidiaries to tangible equity). At 3Q25, the ratio was 96.9% (3Q24: 93.3%), well below Fitch's 120% trigger to lower the group's ratings from the bank's rating. Fitch believes the recognition of Bineo's divesture and extraordinary higher provisioning is neutral to GNorte's IDRs due to the small size of the loss comparing to GFNorte's net income and equity.
Support Underpins Ratings: The National Ratings for CB Banorte, AyF Banorte, and Almacenadora Banorte reflect their holding company's credit profile, which is also driven by the group's main entity, Banorte. Fitch factors in the explicit support the financial group would extend to these entities, given their important role in the group's business diversification strategy, coupled with GFNorte's legal obligation to support its subsidiaries.
SUBSIDIARIES AND AFFILIATES: RATING SENSITIVITIESFactors That Could, Individually Or Collectively, Lead To Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
--GFNorte's IDRs could be downgraded if there is a significant and sustained increase in double leverage above 120%. This would lead to one level below Banorte' IDRs;
-- Any negative movement on GFNorte's non-bank subsidiaries' ratings would be driven by a negative action on Banorte's national ratings;
-- A change in GFNorte's non-bank subsidiaries' strategic importance to the group and the bank could negatively affect their ratings.
Factors That Could, Individually Or Collectively, Lead To Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
--An upgrade of GFNorte's IDR would result from any positive change in Banorte's VR;
--GFNorte's non-bank financial subsidiaries' ratings are at the highest level on the national scale; therefore, there is no possibility of an upgrade in the ratings.
VR ADJUSTMENTS-- The Asset Quality Score of 'bbb-' has been assigned above the 'bb' category implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Collateral and reserves (positive).
-- The Capitalization and Leverage score of 'bbb-' has been assigned above the 'bb' category implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Leverage and risk-weight calculation (positive).
-- The Funding and Liquidity Score of 'bbb-' has been assigned above the 'bb' category implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Deposit Structure (positive).
Summary of Financial AdjustmentsFitch's tangible capital calculation excluded prepaid expenses and other deferred assets from shareholders' equity.
Sources of InformationThe principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
Financial figures are in accordance to the Comision Nacional Bancaria y de Valores criteria. Figures from 2022 include recent accounting changes in the process to converge to International Financial Reporting Standards. Prior years did not include these changes and Fitch believes they are not directly comparable.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratingsGFNorte's IDRs and Almacenadora Banorte, Arrendadora y Factor Banorte, Casa de Bolsa Banorte's ratings and Outlook are linked with those of Banorte.
ESG ConsiderationsThe highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visithttps://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores.
Arrendadora y Factor Banorte, S.A. de C.V., SOFOM, E.R., Grupo Financiero Banorte; National Long Term Rating; Affirmed; AAA(mex); Rating Outlook Stable
; National Short Term Rating; Affirmed; F1+(mex)
Casa de Bolsa Banorte, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Banorte; National Long Term Rating; Affirmed; AAA(mex); Rating Outlook Stable
; National Short Term Rating; Affirmed; F1+(mex)
Almacenadora Banorte, S.A. de C.V., Organizacion Auxiliar del Credito, Grupo Financiero Banorte; National Long Term Rating; Affirmed; AAA(mex); Rating Outlook Stable
; National Short Term Rating; Affirmed; F1+(mex)
Banco Mercantil del Norte, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero Banorte; Long Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; BBB-; Rating Outlook Positive
; Short Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; F3
; Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; BBB-; Rating Outlook Positive
; Local Currency Short Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; F3
; National Long Term Rating; Affirmed; AAA(mex); Rating Outlook Stable
; National Short Term Rating; Affirmed; F1+(mex)
; Viability Rating; Affirmed; bbb-
; Government Support Rating; Affirmed; bb+
----subordinated; Long Term Rating; Affirmed; BB-
----senior unsecured; National Long Term Rating; Affirmed; AAA(mex)
Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V.; Long Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; BBB-; Rating Outlook Positive
; Short Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; F3
; Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; BBB-; Rating Outlook Positive
; Local Currency Short Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; F3
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adriana.beltran@fitchratings.com
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+52 81 4161 7056
alejandro.tapia@fitchratings.com
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