Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. (Securities Code: 5021)
1Q FY2026 Financial Results Briefing for Analysts and Institutional Investors Q&A
-This document contains forward-looking statements. A disclaimer is provided at the end of the report -
Date and Time: Friday, August 7, 2026 10:00 to 11:00 (JST)
Attendees: 86 persons
Major Questions:
Q1: I understand that the results were broadly in line with the plan. Were there any differences by segment?
A1: In the full-year plan, based on the assumption that crude oil prices would gradually decline as the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, we expected a significant positive time-lag effect at the beginning of the fiscal year, followed by a reversal thereafter. Overall, first-quarter results were broadly in line with the plan. By segment, while there remain factors that could cause fluctuations in the Petroleum Business and Oil E&P Business due to crude oil price volatility, there are also potential upside factors such as firm overseas product market conditions. We will continue to closely monitor the situation.
Q2: The margin for the four main products in the Petroleum Business was solid, partly due to a positive time-lag effect. What was the situation regarding the actual margin?
A2: In the full-year plan, we conservatively incorporated a buffer of -¥1/L to reflect uncertainty. We recognize that the actual margin in the first quarter remained solid, at a level slightly above the previous year.
Q3: Please explain the production status in the Oil E&P Business and the impact on the second quarter.
A3: From April to June, situation were unstable, and production volume declined to about one-fifth of the usual level. As a result, we expect a certain impact on the second quarter. On the other hand, with cooperation from the oil-producing countries, production volume has been recovering steadily, and we are preparing to return to full production.
Q4: Please quantify the positive time-lag effect that occurred in the first quarter. Will the positive time-lag effect that occurred in the first quarter be eliminated in the second quarter?
A4: The time-lag effect that occurred in the first quarter was 13.4 yen/L year on year, equivalent to approximately ¥50.0 billion. Based on the current crude oil price level, we assume that the positive time-lag effect that occurred in the first quarter will be eliminated in the second quarter.
Q5: What is the procurement ratio between Middle Eastern crude oil and North/Central American crude oil? To what extent has the increased procurement of North/Central American crude oil extended the time lag?
A5: The ratio is approximately half and half. Compared with Middle Eastern crude oil, transportation days for North/Central American crude oil are about twice as long.
Q6: Regarding shareholder returns, please explain your approach if profits or equity capital exceed assumptions.
A6: As indicated in the Eighth MTMP, we are committed to a total payout ratio of 60% or higher on a cumulative three-year basis and a minimum dividend of ¥165 per share. If performance exceeds our assumptions, the amount of returns will also increase. However, given the significant fluctuations caused by external factors at present, we will make a decision after taking into account earnings from the second quarter onward.
Q7: The first-quarter refinery operating ratio on stream day basis was 92.0%. Was this due to the impact of troubles, or due to processing crude oil that differs from normal crude oil?
A7: Regarding refinery operations, we achieved safe operations in the first quarter, and no major troubles occurred. On the other hand, in processing crude oil that differs from normal crude oil, we conducted a certain level of conservative operating adjustments, prioritizing safe operations above all else. Recently, we have accumulated experience in processing crude oil that differs from normal crude oil, as well as know-how in blending Middle Eastern crude oil with other crude oils. Therefore, going forward, we intend to bring operations closer to full utilization.
Q8: Does the first-quarter time-lag effect include the impact of national stockpiled crude oil and alternative procurement costs?
A8: We processed national stockpiled crude oil in the first quarter, but we refrain from commenting on the earnings impact of individual crude oil types. This time lag mainly reflects the fact that the receipt of crude oil purchased during a high-price period will be delayed into the second quarter and beyond, and we recognize it as a timing difference in receipt.
Q9: Regarding the production outlook for the Oil E&P Business, is full production possible through alternative routes regardless of whether transit through the Strait of Hormuz is possible, or will it be affected to some extent by whether transit is possible?
A9: At present, with cooperation from the oil-producing countries, we are working to restore production volume and are returning to normal production. However, we believe that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is important in order to continue stable normal production.
Q10: Please explain the factors behind the increase in margins for products other than the four main products.
A10: The increase was mainly attributable to firm overseas market conditions for oil products sold domestically whose prices are linked to overseas market conditions.
Q11: Regarding the earnings trend in the Petrochemical Business, how were earnings on an underlying basis, excluding the impact of beginning inventory?
A11: Domestic sales of petrochemical products mainly use pricing formulas linked to import prices, and the structure basically allows costs to be appropriately passed on to selling prices. We recognize that earnings on an underlying basis are generally stable.
Q12: Regarding earnings in the Petroleum Business from the second quarter onward, while a reversal of the time-lag effect is expected, there also appear to be upside factors such as margins for products other than the four main products and improvement in refinery operating ratios. How do you view this?
A12: For products other than the four main products, overseas market conditions remain firm, and we believe they could become an upside factor. Trends in crude oil prices and product market conditions remain uncertain. However, we will steadily implement measures that are within our control, such as high operating rates and appropriate cost pass-through, and will work to secure earnings.
Q13: Please explain the operating status of the ethylene plant and the progress of structural improvements.
A13: We continue to operate in line with domestic demand. During the first quarter, we temporarily made operating adjustments in line with regular maintenance by users in the industrial complex, but operations resumed in July. Structural improvements are also progressing as planned. Going forward, we will steadily advance these efforts in line with the plan, while monitoring demand trends and coordinating with users in the industrial complex.
Q14: Will diversification of crude oil types affect medium- to long-term capital investment plans?
A14: At present, we are achieving high operating rates within the scope of existing facilities by appropriately blending crude oil to match the configuration of refinery equipment. On the other hand, if we process a large volume of certain crude oil types on a continuous basis, capital
investment may be necessary, depending on throughput volume and secondary units. We will consider this over the medium to long term while assessing crude oil procurement portfolio and the suitability of each refinery.
(End)
This document and the information contained herein includes forward-looking statements about our plans, strategies
and performance. These forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to the Company. As a result, actual results may differ materially from those described and included herein due to a variety of external factors.
