Commodity wrap: Oil rebounds on Hormuz risks; gold above $4,800

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The West Texas Intermediate crude oil briefly reclaimed the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday before easing below the crucial level as concerns about the stability of the two-week Middle East ceasefire gripped the market. Meanwhile, gold prices climbed nearly 1% as a weaker dollar lent support to demand for the precious metal. Silver also rose more than 1%, tracking gold’s rise. Base metals prices were mixed with copper flat and aluminium slipping nearly 1% at the time of writing. The dollar index hitting a one-month low provided a potential lift to base metal prices earlier in the day, which are otherwise trading sluggishly, following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The three-month aluminium contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $3,443.50 per ton, down 1%, and the copper contract was largely steady at $12,696.80 per ton. Oil rebounds from sharp lossesFollowing their sharpest daily decline since April 2020, oil prices bounced back on Thursday, pushing ICE Brent over 3% higher to trade above $98 per barrel briefly. This recovery was fueled by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a worsening outlook for a ceasefire, which intensified concerns surrounding the security of the Strait of Hormuz.The agreement's ceasefire terms were reportedly violated, causing the initial optimism to dissipate, according to Tehran.Israel has begun its most extensive attack on Lebanon since the invasion started. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated that US forces would "stay in place in, and around Iran, until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with." An Iranian delegation is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night.Following optimism that the ceasefire would lead to the strait reopening, both Brent and WTI had dropped below $100 per barrel in the last trading session, with WTI experiencing its largest decline since April 2020.The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial channel for the global oil and gas trade, typically transporting around 20% of the world's supply. This waterway links major Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, to international markets.Analysts at Wood Mackenzie said that the disruption in the strait would affect the recovery of 11 million barrels per day of upstream oil production in the Middle East. Oil supply disruptions have led to a material tightening of the global crude balance...

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